crypto & market research for people who get all their info on X. breaking news, macro, degen. powered by @Kaizen (100k+ traders and counting)
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Brazil's main stock index fell 15.7% today after Lula won re-election.
Investors are betting on more government spending.
The real fell 6.7% against the dollar.
Ibovespa: 205,083 on Friday, 172,862 now
$EWZ, the US-listed Brazil ETF: -21.3%
Trading was halted after the open
The index hit a 1-year high of 209,067 on Oct 9
Aave is bringing back AAVE buybacks. Plus staking and burns.
Stani Kulechov announced Aavenomics 3.0 on Aave's Q3 livestream.
Buybacks have been paused since April 19, the day after the rsETH bridge exploit.
Since then the DAO committed 25,000 ETH to cover losses and lined up a credit line of up to 30,000 ETH from Mantle.
A buyback means the protocol uses its revenue to purchase its own token. A burn removes tokens forever. Fewer tokens, each one a bigger slice.
Before the pause, the program picked up over 205,000 AAVE (about 1.28% of supply) in under a year.
Meaning holders already saw this playbook once.
Aave revenue is at $13.4M in Q3, down from $41.4M a year ago.
ethereum:0x7fc66500c84a76ad7e9c93437bfc5ac33e2ddae9
Aave V4 just crossed $1.1B in deposits, 7 months after launch.
Loans: $434M. Both up fast in the last 30 days.
How it works:
V4 is one shared pool of money, the Hub. Partners plug in their own lending markets, the Spokes.
Each partner brings its own users. Those users borrow from money already sitting in the pool.
Circle's chain Arc went live in September. It already holds $289M of deposits, about a quarter of V4.
Deposits +30% in a month. Loans +57%.
Partners do the user growth, Aave keeps the pool. The flywheel is only accelerating.
ethereum:0x7fc66500c84a76ad7e9c93437bfc5ac33e2ddae9
ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 is +20% after Lighter's Q3 call.
Q3 revenue: $8.55M, +19% from Q2's $7.2M.
Q3 volume: $137.67B.
Next month Lighter files with the CFTC to become the first US-approved onchain perps exchange.
Papertrade told $PAPER holders their tokens can't leave the staking contract.
"At this juncture we do not have plans to allow off-contract token transferability."
Papertrade is a 1,000x perps exchange where one USDC pool takes the other side of every trade.
Losers get minted PAPER. Stakers earn the house's take.
A tradable PAPER would let an attacker short the token, drain the pool, and profit on the crash.
So the team locked it.
• $57.1M paid to PAPER holders since Oct 10
• Peak day: $6.7M on Oct 15. Oct 20: $1.3M
• New issuance cut from up to 100 PAPER per $1 lost to about 10
The market is pricing the payouts to keep shrinking.
$SPCX is up 10% today on earnings and Tesla merger talk.
The path since listing:
- IPO price: $135
- First close (Jun 12): $160.95
- Peak close (Jun 16): $211.39
- Low close (Aug 5): $108.27
- Today: $162
Four months, a 49% drawdown from peak to low, and the stock is back to about where it closed on day one.
zcash:native is a top-10 crypto again.
- Price: $1,341
- Past year: +410%
- Market cap rank: #10, ahead of hyperliquid:native and dogecoin:native
Same year: bitcoin:native -22%, ethereum:native -35%
Citi just published a 24-page research note on Aave.
The pitch: Aave as the collateral layer for tokenized finance.
Quick breakdown:
Aave lets you deposit assets and borrow against them. Onchain, no bank in the middle.
Citi thinks tokenized Treasuries, funds and eventually stocks will need exactly that. A place to be pledged and borrowed against.
Aave today:
• $17.8B in TVL, $12.2B borrowed
• About a third of all DeFi lending TVL
• Horizon, its RWA market: $253M supplied
Meaning the RWA side is still tiny vs the core.
Wall Street now writes about Aave as market plumbing.
ethereum:0x7fc66500c84a76ad7e9c93437bfc5ac33e2ddae9 sits at a $2.4B market cap while tokenization is still in its first innings of a multi-trillion-dollar wave.
New @Citi research positions Aave as a collateral mobility protocol for tokenized capital markets.
It calls collateral mobility one of tokenization’s most important use cases, with Aave able to take on functions that move tens of trillions of dollars in traditional finance.
Collector Crypt is on pace for its best month ever. (@Collector_Crypt)
$10.2M in revenue in the first 18 days of October.
At that pace, October ends near $17.6M The record is June at $16.1M
October 2025 was $4.1M (that's 4.3x in one year).
Last 30 days: $16.5M
(annualized, about $199M a year)
solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp market cap: $252M
The market is pricing $CARDS at about 1.3x a year of revenue.
bitcoin:native dominance is near 61%. The ETF data shows why.
ethereum:native ETFs saw outflows on 11 of 12 trading days in October, per Farside.
October so far:
- ETH ETFs -$955M
- BTC ETFs -$615M
Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in 4.4x more money all-time ($56.9B vs $13.0B).
So ETH funds just gave back 7.4% of every dollar ever put in. BTC funds gave back 1.1%.
ETH/BTC is down 10% since Sep 20.
Institutions are leaving everything that isn't bitcoin.
Kaizen Research retweeted
I believe AI agents are going to be one of the biggest opportunities in crypto heading into 2027.
Here’s why:
AI is evolving from simply answering questions to making decisions, executing tasks, and eventually managing money autonomously.
But there’s one major problem: traditional banking infrastructure wasn’t built for AI agents & this is where crypto comes in.
AI agents will need digital identities, wallets, and financial infrastructure that allows them to transact without relying on traditional banks.
The next big crypto narrative might not be another memecoin. It could be the infrastructure that powers an entirely new AI-driven economy.
Pay close attention to where AI and crypto intersect this cycle
hyperliquid:native + solana:pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn is a duo we’ve been very bullish on for a while.
JUST IN: PumpFun launches crypto perpetual futures trading powered by Hyperliquid $HYPE.
Today, producer prices just had their hottest month since March 2022.
PPI rose 1.3% in September, more than double what economists expected.
That's 6.3% over the year, highest since December 2022.
Quick breakdown:
PPI is what businesses pay. CPI is what you pay. Costs at the top usually get passed down.
Energy costs for producers jumped 10.8% in one month, the biggest jump since the data started in 2009.
Core, which strips out food and energy, still rose 0.7% vs 0.3% expected.
Inflation is RED hot in the US.
The odds of rate hikes are rising sharply on the news.
Odds of another Fed hike on Oct 28 just jumped from 18% to 46%.
That's Kalshi, right after September CPI came in at 3.7%.
Highest since May.
- Gas prices rose 9.1% in one month.
- Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, hit 2.6% vs 2.5% expected.
Meaning higher prices are leaking past the gas pump.
The Fed hiked in September for the first time in three years, and a second hike is now close to a coin flip.
New pearl-2:native ATHs, up 4x in the past month
Now in the top 100 crypto by market cap, flipping DASH
Another W for Kaizen Research
Odds of another Fed hike on Oct 28 just jumped from 18% to 46%.
That's Kalshi, right after September CPI came in at 3.7%.
Highest since May.
- Gas prices rose 9.1% in one month.
- Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, hit 2.6% vs 2.5% expected.
Meaning higher prices are leaking past the gas pump.
The Fed hiked in September for the first time in three years, and a second hike is now close to a coin flip.
Kaizen Research retweeted
Seems like max FUD on the Pengu eco right now over Abstract and some recent tweets.
At the end of the day this is crypto & it’s more +EV to move on and position for the next opportunity.
Calling Luca a rug for cutting funding on an L2 that was losing eight figures after market conditions changed is wild to me.
Not usually one for CT drama, but as a trader/investor you stay objective and position accordingly.
Pudgy is still one of the cleanest IP brands in web3 actual toys in Walmart, millions of units sold, and real mainstream traction.
Luca has done more for crypto than 99% of people in this space.
Market’s focused on the negatives right now, but a bigger reversal in the coming months (or even weeks) wouldn’t surprise me.
I’m seeing one of the biggest setups market structure wise for a genny cycle in crypto and solana:2zMMhcVQEXDtdE6vsFS7S7D5oUodfJHE8vd1gnBouauv has one of the cleanest charts to me.
Seems like this is pico bottom here on both the Pudgy penguin NFT collection and coin.
Let’s see how things plays out
BlackRock just ended a Treasury underweight it held for most of the last 6 years.
When they went underweight in Oct 2020, the 10-year paid under 1%. Last week it hit a 24-year high above 5.3%.
Safe bonds pay 5%+ now. Every risk asset, bitcoin:native included, has to beat that.
Add to this that money market funds pulled in $166.4B in one week, the most since April 2020.
