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Joined June 2020
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Feels like a shake out. Long end still coming down, next cpi will be cool. Meanwhile stocks r cheap
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Friend quipped “The smartest and dumbest traders are all bearish”
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Looks like relative strength If you are retarded
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“Hello police? I was raped by a Muslim immigrant.” “Don’t be racist, ma’am.” “And he doesn’t believe in the Holocaust.” “We’ll be right there.”
NEW - German Chancellor Merz says Muslim immigrants who refuse to acknowledge Germany's historical responsibility for the Holocaust must leave the country.
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An ambitious economics PhD student at U Chicago should pen “The Retarded Market Hypothesis (RMH)” as a rejection of the totally bogus and outdated EMH.
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KaneCap retweeted
When to buy during a bitcoin bull market: when unsophisticated tourists who local top blasted are capitulating and realizing losses, out of fear. $BTC
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Anyone think these AI datacenter stocks are getting interesting? $WULF for example could be doing $1B of annualized contracted FCF by 2028 backstopped by the most credit-worth companies on earth against a $5B current market cap. They also have a 2.1GW pipeline so there's potentially >3x upside to that $1B of already contracted FCF over time. Technically, chart is probably close to bottoming too. Have bull div on daily with clear uptick in volume and weekly is tagging lower Bollinger Band that's starting to turn up.
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Another dynamic working in their favor compared to other parts of AI trade is their existing leases will be ramping over the NTM whereas stuff like semis and neoclouds will be decelerating.
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CT says ZEC is crowded but I see significantly more FUD posts than bull posts on my TL.
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RIP Georgia you had a good run
The before and after pics of Georgia's 8 constitutional officers is remarkable.
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$NVDA Printed RS 🔴 new low for the first time since 2022
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Good counterpoints to doomer ai narrative
I don't know how much lower we go in AI There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of overbuild and cyclicality But let's keep in mind... - agentic adoption really started in Q3 and is an order of magnitude more token demand than an individual person (always on, stackable) - frontier cyber AI only recently became public an is now a permanent tax on enterprises and nations (and is escalatory in nature no ceiling) - the rest of the world, including China, is behind the US in their buildout and in penetration - speaking of penetration, Anthropic's S-1 rounded to 0.1% of enterprise spend on AI - that's a low amount for intelligence as a service! - robotics & autonomy are still sub-scale but real
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Yooooo
Equity put/call ratio 1.05 today, higher than Liberation Day. Previous spikes above 1.0 happened close to near-term lows. Is this time different?
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Retail investors on track for the largest day of selling across single stocks since the COVID drop per @VandaTrack
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VIX Index is above all of its futures contracts. Very bullish. See mcoscillator.com/learning_ce…
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We live in the modern Soviet Union
10-point swing toward Hinojosa from polling numbers. From -2 to +8. All from almost 2 million Democrat voters who showed up out of nowhere. In Texas. Who is Hinojosa? Nobody knows, but a record 2 million votes materialized for her. She is like Biden. Magical voters.
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Every GOP strategist, consultant, and candidate should be forced to participate in a role-playing exercise this morning. Your name is Bob. You’re a 49-year-old blue-collar worker in Ohio. You’ve always struggled to make ends meet. The good jobs were all shipped to China and the few remaining pay a pittance wage, undercut by endless illegal labor. You’re a 3x Trump voter because you believed he would finally make America great again. You put your son through Ohio State. He graduated cum laude in computer science. You couldn’t have been prouder. After months searching, he landed an entry-level job at Microsoft. Beneath his qualifications, but a good start for a smart kid. Then he got laid off. That same month, Microsoft applied for 150,000 more H-1B visas because it can’t find qualified Americans. Your son has spent six months back in his childhood bedroom, sending hundreds of applications without landing an interview. On TV, Trump boasts about the greatest economy in history and how many women and minorities are finding jobs. You decide a father-son steak night might cheer him up. Gas is $4.50 a gallon. Filling your truck costs over $100. At Kroger, ribeyes are $30/lb. You settle for hamburger, even though 70/30 ground beef still costs $10+. At checkout, a fat black woman is screaming at the cashier because her EBT will only cover most of the filet mignon and lobster in her cart. You think to yourself how the Iran war has made everything expensive, but at least we’re stopping their nuclear bomb. You weren’t even sure where Iran was before you googled it after we first bombed them in March. After dinner, you take your son to the county fair. Half the people aren’t speaking English. Virtually none of the crowd looks like you. You’re forced to leave early after a “teen takeover” turns violent. A foreign born judge pledges none of them will go to jail. Back home, you turn on the TV. Vivek Ramaswamy is lecturing the crowd about American mediocrity and why Ohio needs more foreign talent. Your son grows upset. You change the channel. Now a Republican surrogate, the daughter of a governor or wife of an elderly billionaire, explains that young White men are the REAL welfare queens. They’d rather play videogames in their parents’ basements than work. Your son says nothing. He just goes back to his childhood bedroom. You turn off the TV. Then your neighbor starts blasting reggaeton and cracking open Modelos. He brought his cousin’s family from Mexico to help with all the minority-business contracts his construction firm keeps winning. Tonight they’re celebrating his nephew’s birth, the family’s first birthright American citizen. You sit alone in your living room. You worked hard, paid taxes, obeyed the law, and raised your son to do everything right. You voted Republican again and again because you believed somebody in Washington would finally fight for you. Instead, your wages are stagnant. Groceries are unaffordable. Your community is unrecognizable. Your country is fighting another foreign war. And upstairs, the son you sacrificed everything for is lying awake in the bedroom he slept in at twelve, wondering what the heck he’s even supposed to do with his life now. Every time you turn on the TV, the Republicans you elected are either congratulating themselves or explaining why you and your son are the problem. For ten years, they told you America’s future depended on your vote. Now you aren’t even sure America has a future worth defending. The Republican Party needs to answer one simple question this morning: You’ve spent a decade demanding Bob’s loyalty. You’ve given him stagnant wages, unaffordable groceries, another foreign war, and a son who did everything right but can’t find work. And when they complain, you call them lazy, entitled, and racist. What possible reason have you given Bob and his son to vote Republican? Do you honestly think you deserve their vote?
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There is so much money that still has to come out of the AI trade
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GG betting markets nailed this one
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NO PANICANS
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