@LIEngProf

English & Film Professor/#Educator/#FilmBuff/Mapmaker: House (specialty), County & Precinct Maps/Proud Long Island #ModerateDem/Dad💙👦🏼👩🏼🚫No DMs

 Lynbrook, NY (NY-04)
Shakespeareandhistory.com
Joined January 2022
  • Tweets17.7K
  • Following9.1K
  • Followers12K
3.9KMedia
Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Kyle Kondik@kkondikOct 20
New overall seat count: 223 Safe/Likely/Leans D 200 Safe/Likely/Leans R 12 Toss-ups My best guess is Dems approach but don't necessarily match 235 seats won from 2018.
Kyle Kondik@kkondikOct 20
NEW Crystal Ball: 28 House rating changes as tally of seats at least leaning Dem surpasses both 218 as well as tiny majorities of the last three cycles centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 9
Washington Post/Schar poll | 9/30-10/5 LV US Senate Maine 2026 🟦Troy Jackson 50% 🟥Susan Collins 46% (incumbent) Link to poll: washingtonpost.com/politics/…
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Kyle Kondik@kkondikOct 8
NEW Crystal Ball -- 4 House rating changes: FL-25 Moskowitz Toss-up to Leans D FL-22 Open Leans R to Toss-up NE-2 Open Leans D to Likely D WI-1 Steil Likely R to Leans R Plus - could Rs be shut out completely from Harris-won districts? We doubt it, but it's in play
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Michael Pruser
@MichaelPruserOct 5
North Carolina Voter Registration Update - October 2026
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022Oct 5
Silver Bulletin’s Gubernatorial Forecast (Chance of winning) PENNSYLVANIA 🟦 Josh Shapiro: 100% 🟥 Stacy Garrity: 0% —— IOWA 🟦 Rob Sand: 94% → (Flip) 🟥 Zach Lahn: 6% —— OHIO 🟦 Amy Acton: 77% → (Flip) 🟥 V. Ramaswamy: 23% —— GEORGIA 🟦 Keisha L. Bottoms: 63% → (Flip) 🟥 Rick Jackson: 37% —— NEW HAMPSHIRE 🟥 Kelly Ayotte (i): 96% 🟦 Cinde Warmington: 4% —— ARIZONA 🟦 Hobbs (i): 94% 🟥 Andy Biggs: 6% —— VERMONT 🟥 Phil Scott: 76% 🟦 AmandaJanoo: 24% —— NEVADA 🟥 Joe Lombardo (i): 53% 🟦 Aaron Ford: 47% —— MICHIGAN 🟦 Jocelyn Benson: 95% 🟥 John James: 5% —— MINNESOTA 🟦 Amy Klobuchar: 98% 🟥 Republican: 2% —— ALASKA 🟦 J. Kreiis-Tomkins: 71% → (Flip) 🟥 Republican: 29% —— MAINE 🟦 Hannah Pingree: 99% 🟥 Bobby Charles: 1% —— TEXAS 🟥 Greg Abbott (i): 69% 🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 31% —— KANSAS 🟥 Ty Masterson: 71% → (Flip) 🟦 Cindy Holscher: 29% —— FLORIDA 🟥 Byron Donalds: 69% 🟦 David Jolly: 31% —— OREGON 🟦 Tina Kotek (i): 88% 🟥 Christine Drazan: 12%
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Kyle Kondik@kkondikOct 1
50-46 Taylor over Wittman in VA-1 51-45 McGuire over Perriello in VA-5 We just moved VA-1 to Toss-up and VA-5 to Leans R.
Scott Clement@sfcpollOct 1
We polled two must-watch House races. There are good signs for Democrats. Story with @SchneiderG based on new Washington Post-Schar School polling. washingtonpost.com/politics/…

Democrat has edge in Virginia House race considered national bellwether, poll finds

Democrat Shannon Taylor is narrowly ahead of Rep. Rob Wittman (R) in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, while Democrat Tom Perriello is modestly behind Rep. John McGuire (R) in the 5th.

washingtonpost.com
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Partisan Mapper@DemHackMapsSep 30
Josh Shapiro will probably win PA-10 comfortably this fall, but let's not forget he won it comfortably in 2022 too, by 11.8 points, and on the same ballot Scott Perry still won by 7.7. That's a 61,329 raw vote, 19.5 point Perry over-performance.
Three precinct maps of PA-10 in 2022. Governor: Shapiro won by 37,213 votes (11.8 points). Congress: Perry won by 24,116 (7.7 points). Third map: Perry ran 61,329 votes (19.5 points) ahead of the governor's race, with nearly every precinct shifting toward Perry.

ALT Three precinct maps of PA-10 in 2022. Governor: Shapiro won by 37,213 votes (11.8 points). Congress: Perry won by 24,116 (7.7 points). Third map: Perry ran 61,329 votes (19.5 points) ahead of the governor's race, with nearly every precinct shifting toward Perry.

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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Rumper 💜@PurpleHeartManSep 30
I have to be living in hell right now
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Kyle Kondik@kkondikSep 29
11 more House rating changes in the Crystal Ball today, written up by @JMilesColeman, plus two deep sleepers among the gubernatorial races (NE-VT). Overall House tally is now 213 at least Leans D, 202 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups
J. Miles Coleman@JMilesColemanSep 29
CRYSTAL BALL: As the environment remains tough for Republicans, 11 House races shift to Dems. Notably, the 3 competitive R-held seats in VA each shift a column leftward. In NE & VT, Govs. Pillen (R) & Scott (R) both go from Safe R to Likely R. centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
The Political HQ
@ThePoliticalHQSep 25
🚨BREAKING🚨 Missouri will use the 6-2 congressional map based on the 2022 districts after the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the 7-1 map from being implemented for the 2026 general election. This was the GOP’s final attempt to use the 7-1 map for 2026.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022Sep 25
Cook Political Report moves 15 House races — all toward Democrats • NC-11: Lean R → Toss Up • TX-15: Lean R → Toss Up • FL-22: Lean R → Toss Up • NJ-07: Toss Up → Lean D • AZ-01: Toss Up → Lean D • CO-05: Likely R → Lean R • TX-35: Likely R → Lean R • MT-01: Likely R → Lean R • FL-27: Likely R → Lean R • FL-13: Likely R → Lean R • WI-01: Likely R → Lean R • NV-02: Solid R → Likely R • VA-05: Solid R → Likely R • NY-21: Solid R → Likely R • TX-09: Solid R → Likely R
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022Sep 24
Rasmussen Senate polls (Sept) 🔵 Georgia — Ossoff +9 🔵 Iowa — Turek +5 🔵 Michigan — El-Sayed +3 🔵 Maine — Jackson +1 ⚪️ Alaska — TIE 🔴 South Carolina — Graham +5
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022Sep 24
MICHIGAN POLL - Senate 🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 47% 🟥 Mike Rogers: 44% 🟨 Other: 4% @Rasmussen_Poll | 9/22-26 | 1,099 LV rasmussenreports.com/public_…
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Kyle Kondik@kkondikSep 22
to be clear, I am concerned about polls being loaded up for Ds (and I note some of those concerns on a couple of newsy polls in my piece today that otherwise moves a lot of races toward Ds). But we also have to be open to the possibility that this is 2018 on steroids.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Sep 21
#KansasSenate The Hill: "A Republican source familiar with the race said private polling also showed Adam Hamilton (D) with a slight lead." Link to article: thehill.com/homenews/senate/…
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Sage Of Time🇵🇷@SageOfTime1Sep 19
The 2026 MA US Senate Dem Primary, a contest between two-termed Sen Ed Markey, and Congressman Seth Moulton resulted in Markey trouncing Moulton, despite the latter seeking to make the former's age an issue, due to an aggressive campaign that emphasized his progressive bona fides
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Zachary Donnini
@ZacharyDonniniSep 14
Right now, the race for Senate control is a dead heat, but that doesn’t mean the final margin will be close to 50-50. Polling errors are highly correlated across states, so a normal miss of 3 points in either direction across all the Senate battlegrounds could produce anything from a 53-47 Republican Senate to a 53-47 Democratic Senate. Our model gives roughly a 1-in-3 chance that either party ends up with at least 53 seats. It would be similar to what happened in 2024, when a race polling reasonably close resulted in Trump sweeping all seven major battleground states as GOP turnout was elevated across the nation and drove a correlated polling error. Correlation between U.S. Senate races is lower than different Presidential states in our model, but still is notable.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Sage Of Time🇵🇷@SageOfTime1Sep 12
The 2026 Democratic Congressional Primary in Connecticut's 1st Congressional District, a contest between longtime incumbent John Larson, and Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin results in the hartford mayor trouncing the incumbent in a contest dominated by a theme of generational change.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Ryan James Girdusky
@RyanGirduskySep 10
No sugar coating this... this is bad
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022Sep 10
TEXAS POLL By Fabrizio (R)/Impact Research (D) for AARP SENATE 🟦 James Talarico: 48% 🟥 Ken Paxton: 44% —— GOVERNOR 🟥 Greg Abbott (i): 49% 🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 46% —— GCB 🟥 Republicans: 49% 🟦 Democrats: 45% Recalled: Trump 48-36 | 8/30-9/1 | LV
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Sep 10
Breaking news: US Supreme Court blocks Missouri from using 7R-1D congressional map for the 2026 midterms. No noted dissents.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Kyle Kondik@kkondikSep 10
Crystal Ball House rating changes: Figures (D, AL-2) Likely R to Leans R Gonzalez (D, TX-34) Toss-up to Leans D Plus, the 6 regions that will decide the House -- a roadmap for the actual path to the majority centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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