Catherine Cashmore reveals the secret knowledge that sits behind the 18.6-year land cycle and how Aussie investors can take advantage.
Melbourne, Australia
Joined December 2022
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Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
Listen to the poddy here shorturl.at/h8gHk
And the follow up debate here shorturl.at/oQdtd
Very compelling (and fiery) interview on the Built Different podcast with former Prosper president Catherine Cashmore @LandCycle and Evan Lucas @EvanLucas_AU. Read the Land Cycle paper for a compelling history. prosper.org.au/landcycle youtube.com/watch?v=cB9aUXJq…
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
Very compelling (and fiery) interview on the Built Different podcast with former Prosper president Catherine Cashmore @LandCycle and Evan Lucas @EvanLucas_AU. Read the Land Cycle paper for a compelling history. prosper.org.au/landcycle youtube.com/watch?v=cB9aUXJq…
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
Yes great podcast you might not agree but he knows his stuff and can back it up . I think with the people he associates with he knows more than he can reveal
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
I'm not entirely familiar with Australia but I hear lots of info on it from @LandCycle . I'd say it has quite a long way to fall yet! US market is just starting to roll over some. 2030-2031 should provide some great opportunities for those who have $
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
I hear about the Aussie real estate market some, following @LandCycle for the 18m6 yr land cycle. The Australian housing downturn is going to be one for the history books I believe.
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
What do Napoleon, the American Civil War, the Somme and Vietnam have in common?
The same 53-year commodity cycle.
And the current one began in 2000. Do the maths.
New free Substack post out now. Link in comments.
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
Just listened to the interview - excellent as always. Can't wait to read your article once I get home from some errands :) have a lovely weekend
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
I remember when a $60b age pension was going to send us broke.
Now?
Add $16b of childcare subsidies, and $50b of NDIS and it’s all good.
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
This is essential. I actually think anyone who calls themselves a liberal or classical liberal or even a libertarian is at risk of losing their claim to the label if they don't know about the perfectly efficient anti feudalist land value tax idea
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
prices have fallen sharply over 3 months above the 75th percentile by value in Sydney (-5.2pc), Melbourne (-4.6pc), & to a lesser extent Canberra/ACT (-2.7pc)
for the cheapest 25pc of properties, little change overall
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
The most important economic clock we have.. @LandCycle
Auction conditions back to what they were in the early 1990s.. a hint of what's to come.
If you're a subscriber, you had the date of this downturn years in advance!
You also had the exact window of time to sell in Australia, to meet the peak of the market prior to it tanking.
As Edward Dewey - economic forecaster and founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles said - "the land cycle is the most important economic clock we have."
When will policy makers start to take it seriously?
landcycleinvestor.com/post/e…
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
Auction results from Domain.
Not a good market to use an auction as a method of sale. Low volumes. Too many passing in. Large % of unreported results.
A disaster for those trying to sell who missed the peak - readjusting expectations etc.
Still - it was always the forecast as per the cycle over at @landcycle Subs knew it was coming.
NATIONAL AUCTIONS
• Preliminary clearance rate: 51%
• This time last year: 66%
• Scheduled: 1,381
• Reported: 836
• Sold at auction: 425
• Sold prior: 163
• Withdrawn: 201
• Passed in: 201
• Private treaty sales: 6,161
• Median house price: $1,150,000
• Median unit price: $841,350
• Total value sold: $355 million
SYDNEY AUCTIONS
• Preliminary clearance rate: 48%
• This time last year: 71%
• Scheduled: 510
• Reported: 289
• Sold at auction: 140
• Sold prior: 80
• Withdrawn: 105
• Passed in: 40
• Private treaty sales: 1,827
• Median house price: $1,918,000
• Median unit price: $935,000
• Total value sold: $133 million
MELBOURNE AUCTIONS
• Preliminary clearance rate: 60%
• This time last year: 65%
• Scheduled: 570
• Reported: 367
• Sold at auction: 219
• Sold prior: 64
• Withdrawn: 65
• Passed in: 82
• Private treaty sales: 2,047
• Median house price: $990,000
• Median unit price: $687,500
• Total value sold: $163 million
BRISBANE AUCTIONS
• Preliminary clearance rate: 34%
• This time last year: 59%
• Scheduled: 137
• Reported: 83
• Sold at auction: 28
• Sold prior: 8
• Withdrawn: 7
• Passed in: 47
• Private treaty sales: 694
• Median house price: $1,365,000
• Median unit price: N/A
• Total value sold: $30 million
ADELAIDE AUCTIONS
• Preliminary clearance rate: 43%
• This time last year: 57%
• Scheduled: 107
• Reported: 53
• Sold at auction: 23
• Sold prior: 3
• Withdrawn: 5
• Passed in: 23
• Private treaty sales: 414
• Median house price: $912,000
• Median unit price: N/A
• Total value sold: $19 million
CANBERRA AUCTIONS
• Preliminary clearance rate: 34%
• This time last year: 64%
• Scheduled: 57
• Reported: 44
• Sold at auction: 15
• Sold prior: 8
• Withdrawn: 19
• Passed in: 9
• Private treaty sales: 269
• Median house price: N/A
• Median unit price: N/A
• Total value sold: $9 million
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
I suspect like @PeterSchiff & @theRealKiyosaki they sell doom to get book sales and whatever else, can’t take any of them seriously, but @geophilos is a breath of fresh air! For Fred is a jolly good fellow, for Fred is a jolly good fellow!!!
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
Interesting to see this footage of the trip from Sydney to Brisbane by bus in the 1950s.
There is a scene showing a horse-drawn cart right before a scene from a plane. Crazy that these technologies were side-by-side in this era.
youtu.be/1k6XL7d1ehA?si=4gmk…
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
Happy Fourth of July to all our American friends. 🇺🇸
For 250 years, the United States has shaped markets, technology, aviation and the world economy in ways few nations ever have.
As someone with a lifelong passion for aviation, I thought this incredible flight path marking USA 250 was too good not to share.
Have a fantastic Independence Day, and here's to the next chapter of American innovation and prosperity.
Happy 4th of July! 🇺🇸✈️
#FourthOfJuly #IndependenceDay #USA250 #Freedom #Innovation #Aviation #Markets #Leadership
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
There is not "one big property bubble" in Australia.
Different markets are at different points in their cycles.
For example, Sydney and Melbourne apartments haven't seen price booms like Brisbane's in recent years.
FET Thursday Throwback:
In January I asked "Is 2026 the property cycle peak?"
I dug into the relative pricing of housing assets in terms of:
- Apartments vs detached homes
- Cities relative to each other
- Rental returns vs returns on other investments
fresheconomicthinking.com/p/…
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
Okay, so the hysteria has begun because the PM-in-waiting thinks a modest property tax reform is a good idea. The hysteria is led by the Media Right. Well, time for plain speaking. Watch this space, those who want the truth...
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
People who live in multi-million ££ London mansions pay less in property tax than low-income northerners in £200k semis. Who says that's fair? Burnham's proposed trivial reform would at least rebalance that injustice. But there's more to be done....
Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor retweeted
Want to know why Andy Burnham and politicians in other countries can't "make growth happen"? I explain why, here: youtube.com/watch?v=iv7lLI8J…
