LordPos3idon (@LordPos3idon) profile picture

•Words are the derivatives of experience •Head of Global Macro @ Axe Capital •Geopolitical Asshole •Slytherin Alumni •Lisan Al Gaib •Sith Lord •Ruler of the Sea

New York, NY
Joined January 2018
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They’re going for the kill shot on Iran and gonna wipe out all of their underground nukes. They’re going full regime change. It’s over. Saudi & Israel are going to renormalize relations next year. Russia aint gonna do shit, they couldn’t even protect Assad. China, bro Xi Jingping is a figure head and they are in a state of transition politically, they aint gonna do shit. This aint that big of deal. Yeah it sucks dudes are dying but this is not no precursor to WWIII. We are about to see one of the biggest peace dividends ever in the world in the next few years. There is narrative and there are facts. You follow the headline & you’ll think the world is heading towards gloom & despondency. When you look at the facts, there is no WWIII. Nukes man are old gen tech. We are pivoting to China b/c they have reverse enginnered some things, let’s just leave it that. We slept on China & now we know. But this just opens up a new Cold War where both sides try to figure out the type of classified tech each country has been working on. But really it’s about the US seeing what ummm, how do I say? “discoveries” China has made. Strategic ambiguity from China & Russia? That’s been their foreign policy for decades. Russia doesn’t support China on Kashmir b/c Russia is cool with India. Russia doesn’t support China on its incursion in the South China sea b/c Russia is cool with Vietnam. China is doing all it can to take Central Asia away from Russia. China has been recruiting Russia nuclear scientists, drone experts. Russia is never going to fight with China. I’m seeing stories of Chinese military cargo planes landing in Iran as if this is some signal that China is going to help Iran in some capacity militarily. LOL. Honestly I be reading twitter and think I’m going fucking crazy. I sound nuts but to me it’s so clear. Russia & China are not friends. They’re not even really allies. China is literally devouring Russia slowly & the Russians absolutely hate it. That’s why they hope to reach some sort of deal with the US on Ukraine, and hoping for reintegration in Europe. Look at how the US coordinates with its allies, across multiple militaries & defense apparatuses. That’s what a relationship of allies looks like. The reason China & US are in a deadlock is b/c Xi is TOAST, COOKED. So US is dealing with a figure head. Once the news comes out that Xi is no longer in charge, the US will reach some sort of détente with China. It’s just blows my mind that people actually think that we are going to see WWIII & see Russia coordinate with China. You’re just looking at headlines and having feelings but no real reasoning or analysis. No contextual history of these relationships. I mean wtf are geopolitical analyst at? What are they analyzing, they just give post mortems after events occur but no real forecasting, no nothing. Iran is fucking DONE, TOAST, COOKED. Like what? What are people reading? What escalation? What do you think they can do? Has anybody seem the Ls they’ve been taking last two years? Has anybody seen the Ls Russia has taken in last 3 years? Yeah and I say “bro” and curse and am super informal. Idc, the facts are the facts. If that dissuades folks from taking me serious then so be it. But I talk in concrete outcomes, & when those things manifest, my word will be undeniable. I aint selling shit but the truth. We are heading for beautiful times, not fucking World War III. This aint no simulation phase. These dudes you think are teaming up are LOSING!!! Except China but we’ll see what happens when Xi gets replaced. And the only reason China is not losing is b/c they have made “breakthroughs” in physics, w/ some “help”. They will focus inward & redo all his dumb ass policies. Their government still remains very fragile. You can model all you want but I’m a fucking Mentat I’m long Humanity not out of some hippie fantasy nonsense but b/c I see how the chessboard is unfolding. Anybody talking about WWIII is out they fucking mind, sorry
Replying to @rawsalerts
This is not posturing. This is the threshold phase before systemic detonation. Let’s strip away the noise and go straight into structural decoding: 🧠 Deep Truth: 1. Multiple State Evacuation Advisories = Pre-Detonation Alignment When nation-states begin advising evacuation in unison, the machinery is already moving. This isn’t predictive - it’s reactive. Intelligence has likely confirmed: •Viable nuclear escalation pathways are now in play. •Israeli strategic red lines are breached or about to be. •American response capacity is already primed for ignition (as confirmed by aerial refueling alignment and naval repositioning). 2. Trump’s Remarks Were Not a Warning. They Were an Activation Code. Declaring publicly that “Iran CANNOT have a nuclear weapon” in all caps, in this exact moment, isn’t diplomacy. It’s narrative pre-justification for a hard kinetic break. The memetic structure is shifting from defense to preemption. This is “America First” transmuting into “America Must Strike First.” 3. China’s Evacuation Signal Is The Hidden Tripwire If Chinese diplomatic or media channels begin evacuating citizens from the region (especially Israel or Saudi territory), that’s the tell: •It means China has been briefed or has internally confirmed an imminent military event involving weapons of mass destruction or critical infrastructure obliteration. •It also means the multipolar axis has accepted escalation as inevitable and is preparing to maneuver diplomatically in the aftermath. 4. We Are Not Entering WW3. We Are Already in the Simulation Phase. The world is already structurally at war - it’s just masked by narrative latency. What we’re seeing now: •Nuclear sniffer deployment. •Carrier group acceleration. •Cross-theater force synchronization. •Strategic ambiguity by China and Russia. All of it points to active war readiness, not theoretical planning. The actual kinetic event - whether a surgical nuclear strike on Iranian enrichment sites, or a hypersonic retaliation in a proxy theater - is no longer a question of if. It’s a question of how soon command-control protocols cross the ignition threshold. Final Verdict (No Bullsh*t): Trump isn’t dragging anyone anywhere. He’s simply revealing the truth of where we already are. The war began years ago. The mask just fell off. The signal isn’t escalating. It’s collapsing into its final form.
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President Xi Jinping held talks with Sultan Haitham Bin Tarik Al Said of Oman in Beijing on Monday. (Photos: Feng Yongbin) #XiJinping #习近平 @XisMoments bit.ly/4z1xG3P
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LordPos3idon retweeted
"Anakin have you heard the story who founded the central banks?" "No, I haven't" "It's not a story the Jedi would tell you"
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Doves of Peace are feasting on bread crumbs
CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS SPECIAL ENVOY ZHAI JUN TO VISIT IRAN, OMAN, SAUDI IN EARLY, MID NOV
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NYC is the center of the Matrix I’ll take the blue pill 10 times outta 10
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China is on board, don’t listen to talk that Xi is not looking forward to that trilateral summit. China keeps showing subtle signs that it is willing to play ball. Tencent investing in ORCL is not nothing now. And the deafening signal from that is how under the radar it went. Fuck what they say, watch what they do. I understand the irony of this post in me saying that but ya get what I’m getting at.
China's Xi on the Arab world: "China is ready to strengthen communication and coordination with Arab countries to work together to restore peace and tranquility to the region as soon as possible."
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JUST IN - Trump on Chinese spying: "Somebody said, ‘China is spying on us, sir.’ I said, ‘We’re spying on them too. Don’t worry about it.’”
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Oil and ZB look identical here, which makes no sense, which means we may finally be near the inflection point. Be careful gleaning too much from the price action here next two days.
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Hegel is THE BOY HUME IS TRASH
Alex Karp says Palantir is a philosophical project inspired by Hegel.
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Past, Present, Future I love seeing this. Once ya time is up it’s up. The future will always be in the hands of the youth. We need to smack boomers into this understanding. Society and technology have moved so fast that they have no recognition of current generations, hence the divide and bifurcation. But I believe that there is a way to talk to boomers and to get them to sacrifice for our shared future.
imagine being carried by a 7 time world champion and a 4 time world champion while getting your first world championship title… CRAZY
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Just Sprint a few times a month and you’ll get ripped and boost ya cardio. Killing two birds with one stone. I try to do it once a week and once a month at a minimum. It’s the ultimate workout hack, you save so much time for pristine results.
Called it. Now do VO2max.
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Putin is getting suffice carrots to freeze the lines for some time. Even if we just get talks to hold more talks that don’t lead into anything, which is my base case, it will be bearish energy. Too many traders positioned in the same trade, and you need a new impulse of buyers to come in to further boost prices, but those buyers won’t come in if they see even a minimal chance that Putin can play nice for a couple of months. Inertia is the risk for many one sided trades. The crowd hasn’t had edge in many many months. Price hasn’t really been a signal in any direction because it’s just traders pricing each other. A circle jerk effectively in many trades since the Summer.
*U.S. EXPLORES A NEW DEAL WITH RUSSIA TO RETURN ITS GAS TO EUROPE VIA UKRAINE -- SOURCES *WHITE HOUSE PROPOSED THAT RUSSIA PLACE MONEY FROM EUROPEAN GAS SALES INTO ESCROW TO AVOID USE FOR WAR -- SOURCES *U.S. NEGOTIATORS BELIEVE GAS SALES GIVE PUTIN AN INCENTIVE TO AGREE TO ENERGY CEASEFIRE WITH UKRAINE: WSJ
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Iran’s stronger even though we took out one of their strongest proxies, stopped that proxy from getting a Nuke, did it quietly to avoid the public pressure from military retaliation from Assad’s base, but Iran is stronger. Jolani got Syria back on SWIFT, as Iran runs from crypto scheme to crypto scheme to keep the lights on, after burning $50B on Assad but Iran is stronger? Ohhh but Hormuz….. yeah the US is seeing record energy exports, but HORMUZ BRO. And yeah refined product is high now and clipping pockets but abundance in energy has been status quo since the 1800s. If you’re banking on humanity to stop getting smarter than good luck, espec in an era of inferencing becoming commoditized. We’re doing real alchemy and turning coal into gold. This hoarding mindset has been with us since the caveman days. That’s not intuition, thats fear from the part of the brain that confuses cities for jungles. Our biases and heuristics serve us in the wild, but once we take volition into our hands, those biases and heuristics often hold us back. Iran’s proxy defense network that it instituted to avoid direct confrontation with the West required billions and it proved ineffective. It was a HORRIBLE INVESTMENT. If Iran had war bonds, those holders would be praying that they held CoreWeave debt instead. Iran is going to get Balkanized. Their main strategy for the last decade plus has been undone in just a few years. None of Iran’s investment have paid off in terms of what they had originally envisioned, that’s just a fact.
Mossad agents broke into a diplomat’s hotel room in Vienna, cloned his laptop in under an hour, and discovered dozens of color photos showing North Korean scientists inside an unmarked box-shaped building in the Syrian desert—triggering a stealth air raid that wiped out a covert plutonium reactor minutes before midnight. The reason might surprise you. In early 2007, Israeli intelligence was tracking suspicious cargo shipments between Pyongyang and Damascus. While Western agencies assumed Syria was merely modernizing ballistic missiles, Mossad Director Meir Dagan suspected something far more dangerous. In March 2007, an operational window opened in Vienna: Ibrahim Othman, head of the Syrian Atomic Energy Commission, arrived for an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conference. When Othman left his hotel for a dinner engagement, a specialized Mossad Kidon team breached his suite. Operatives cloned his laptop's hard drive, planted Trojan spyware, and left the room completely undisturbed before his return. When analysts back in Tel Aviv cracked the files, they were stunned: The drive held dozens of high-resolution digital photographs taken inside a remote facility near Al-Kibar, in the Deir ez-Zor desert along the Euphrates River. The images showed a gas-cooled, graphite-moderated nuclear reactor identical in design to North Korea's Yongbyon plutonium reactor. Pictured side-by-side inside the facility were Chon Chiboo, a leading North Korean nuclear official, and senior Syrian engineers. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert immediately dispatched Mossad and defense officials to Washington to brief President George W. Bush. While US intelligence confirmed the facility was indeed a plutonium-production reactor built with North Korean assistance, Washington favored diplomatic pressure via the UN rather than kinetic military action. Olmert refused to wait. Under the Begin Doctrine, an operational reactor in a hostile state could not be tolerated: Once loaded with nuclear fuel rods, an airstrike would blanket the Euphrates Valley and downstream populations in lethal radioactive fallout. The countdown to strike was measured in months. The mission was codenamed Operation Orchard (also referred to as Operation Outside the Box). Before the airstrike, commandos from the elite Sayeret Matkal were covertly inserted by helicopter near Al-Kibar to collect soil samples, photograph perimeter defenses, and verify nuclear signatures. On the night of September 5, 2007, the strike package took flight: Four F-15I Ra'am fighters and four F-16I Sufa jets from the 69, 119, and 253 Squadrons departed Ramat David and Hatzerim airbases. Instead of flying east over Jordan, the aircraft headed west over the Mediterranean, climbed north, and banked east along the Turkish-Syrian border. Israel's electronic warfare and cyber units deployed an airborne algorithmic weapon codenamed Suter: they hacked and fed false-sky data directly into Syria’s modern Russian-built radar network. The screens showed tranquil, empty airspace while eight strike fighters roared beneath radar shadows. Shortly after 11:30 PM, the strike package dropped down onto Al-Kibar: Diving out of the dark sky, the jets unleashed 17 tons of precision-guided ordnance, including AGM-65 Maverick missiles and 500-pound laser-guided penetration bombs. The cubic concrete containment building was completely flattened, collapsing into its subterranean foundations in seconds. At 12:01 AM on September 6, the mission commander radioed the prearranged Hebrew code word back to the subterranean command bunker in Tel Aviv: "Arizona." All eight Israeli aircraft returned to base completely undamaged. What followed was one of the most remarkable diplomatic silences in modern warfare: Neither Israel nor Syria acknowledged what had occurred. Prime Minister Olmert imposed a strict military gag order on Israeli press, preventing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from facing public pressure to retaliate. Desperate to conceal the illicit program from the IAEA, Syrian authorities deployed excavators within weeks, bulldozing the remaining rubble, scraping the topsoil, and erecting an innocuous civilian warehouse over the footprint. The veil broke in April 2008 when the CIA briefed the US Congress with unclassified surveillance footage and photos, confirming North Korea's covert nuclear proliferation. Israel officially lifted its censorship and confirmed the raid in March 2018.
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Your signal that zero escalation is coming I’ve never seen a man type in English yet sound Russian. That’s truly a grand feat to accomplish.
Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war. To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha. The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people. And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final. We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it. Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made. They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making. One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.
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Hmmmm now I’m finally understanding why ZEC has been my leader here for risk assets in both directions, I should have taken its topping in late September more seriously given how much signal I ascribed to it but I had tunnel vision on my catalyst. Ultimately idk why ZEC was speaking to me, I just knew the signal was real and robust but now it is starting to make sense. I just think ZEC is up there with Oil and 10yr as something to track. It sounds absurd but the truth is that markets are absurd so it just is what it is.
Tyler Winklevoss: "I would never consider Zcash a trade. it's the other side of the AI coin. the more parabolic the rise of AI, the scarcer privacy becomes." that's the whole thesis in one line. not a cycle call, not a sector bet. a declaration about which assets survive the next decade. the AI privacy debate started in business ops this week. the capital answer was written months ago. shielded supply doesn't wait for the policy conversation to catch up. Zcash shielded supply hit 29% of total issuance this month. that's not retail chasing a narrative. that's capital moving before the headlines catch up. two filters for the next 30 days: shielded supply growth and non-custodial perps volume. everything else is noise. the trade of the decade isn't a token pick. the trade is which assets you can still hold when AI reads every ledger in real time. the full Winklevoss framing is in the clip.
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This shit blew up 😂. That’s pretty cool, that means many people are curious to learn more about China. We just really don’t have an outlet or platform that makes it easy to learn about China. This is promising for the US. I think we are very curious people but we have natural hubristic blindspots since we’ve been the top dogs for a while now. This explains why our foreign affairs usually sucks and why American’s get a bad rep abroad. It’s true, we don’t know much about the other regions that we are so militarily involved in but it is time for that to change. It’s time to embrace diplomacy and centrism and to stop talking over each other and to roll our sleeves up and get shit done. As we approach the Singularity, it becomes paramount that we work together with the rest of the world. Time to be true stewards in our shared future.
Follow him and just click on a random tweets in Mandarin to translate. You’ll get great education on China present and historically. Excellent follow and not much rumor mill slop. He’ll only ask questions with open ended implications but never directly saying this is what happened or not. Just a great follow to stay on top of Chinese politics.
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It’s quiet, too quiet…… This market is suspect, the next dip is the one I’m looking to get into though. Looks like we’re raw dogging into midterms with no deal. Seeing all the diplomatic breakthroughs last week made it seem that the chances were high that we get a deal before the midterms, but nah that’s not happening here and so Midterms is the catalyst here. Republicans aint getting a Hail Mary like I expected but instead will get a nasty defensive grind Patriots type of win. I just look at the Zeitgeist and it just has no edge in anything right now, every crowd sourced answer to any market questions since the Summer has just be wrong. The crowd is not seeing the ball here and that’s why I would define this market regime as just pure inertia. So that’s where I stand when assessing midterms, I just think the crowd/polls are pwrong here and think the pain trade is that they are wrong, as they have been for some time now. A lack of a Democratic Sweep should be bullish though and at least turn the toggle back on for markets to be bullish again. Avoiding a blue sweep will offer more than respite, it will change the calculus of many participants in major ways. This is a market living in fear of underperformance heading into year end and so getting clarity on midterms will ground the market and finally make it resolve in one direction, something bulls and bears yearn to see. The market will still need that deal for the throttle though, which I expect. My bond proxies finally getting life though so that’s good to see, that will embolden me to buy the dip when it comes, as it just feels like we got one more dip here left. I’ve been bullish but haven’t been buying dips but will do so on the next impulse down if we get one. No one has asymmetric edge in terms of why they are buying or selling, they’re just placing bets, so if you see massive flows in one direction, then the pain trade becomes inertia. This really has been the case since the Summer. Retail aping in on Friday smells like this as the pros won’t come back in until we get clarity on Midterms. Sets us up for a volatile next two days, but it’ll be a great opportunity for the patient and prudent. Don’t underestimate the risk heading into midterms these next two days and the risk coming out of midterms, as those are two different opportunity sets.
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Follow him and just click on a random tweets in Mandarin to translate. You’ll get great education on China present and historically. Excellent follow and not much rumor mill slop. He’ll only ask questions with open ended implications but never directly saying this is what happened or not. Just a great follow to stay on top of Chinese politics.
五中全会增选中央军委副主席张升民为中央政治局委员。10月29日,新华社公布的最新简历显示,张升民仍兼任中央纪委副书记。由此出现了政治局委员兼任中纪委副书记的罕见局面,张升民的政治地位甚至高于中纪委排名第一的副书记刘金国。这种安排或许意味着军方在中纪委拥有更大话语权,也暴露出习近平用人缺乏章法、权力安排越来越不按常规的乱象。 现年68岁的张升民,陕西武功人,火箭军上将,长期从事军队政治工作和纪检监察工作。2017年1月出任中央军委纪委书记,并在十九大、二十大上兼任中央纪委副书记。2025年10月,张升民在四中全会上增补为中央军委副主席,今年五中全会再进一步,进入中央政治局,成为目前军中唯一的政治局委员。 在中央委员会任期中途增选政治局委员,中共历史上虽有先例,但近年极为罕见。上一次是1994年9月,十四届四中全会增选时任上海市长黄菊为政治局委员,距今已有32年。2004年徐才厚在十六届四中全会上升任军委副主席,没有同步进入政治局,而是等到2007年十七大才获晋升。 军委副主席兼任中纪委副书记同样罕见。自十六大以来,中纪委副书记通常保留一个军队系统名额,由军委纪委书记或总政治部副主任兼任,主要负责军队与地方纪检工作的衔接。如今张升民已是政治局委员,仍保留中纪委副书记职务,显然超出了以往的惯例。这究竟是习近平有意强化军队纪检系统的权力,还是为了安置亲信而打乱原有组织架构,值得玩味。 去年四中全会和今年五中全会,倒像是专门为张升民安排的两场庆功会:去年升任军委副主席,今年再进政治局,一年一个台阶。习近平为什么不在去年让张升民一步到位?有传闻称,去年张又侠曾反对张升民进入政治局,试图说服习近平,为了维持军队稳定,不应让军委纪委书记获得过高政治地位。我更倾向于习近平有意留了一手,先让张升民担任军委副主席,再看他的表现。 今年初张又侠倒台,军队高层经历新一轮洗牌,张升民成为最大的政治受益者。作为长期掌管军队纪检工作的将领,张升民倒张肯定一马当先,因而赢得习近平更大的信任,五中全会进入政治局,更像是对其政治表现的奖赏。 张升民的特殊之处,在于他并非靠军事指挥能力跻身军队最高层,而是靠纪检监察工作获得习近平重用。习近平需要的不是一个有独立军中威望的将领,而是一个能够执行其政治意志、继续清洗军队的可靠人物。张升民恰好符合这一要求。 这反映出习近平越来越严重的用人困境。执政十多年来,从徐才厚、郭伯雄到火箭军高层,再到张又侠,军队高级将领一批接一批倒台,其中不少人正是习近平亲自提拔或长期重用的。习近平越是强调忠诚,越是怀疑身边的人;越是清洗军队,越是缺乏可以信任的将领。到头来,只能依靠纪检系统出身的张升民来维持军队高层的政治秩序。 接下来的二十一大,69岁的张升民是否会破例留任?2022年二十大,72岁的张又侠打破年龄惯例,继续担任政治局委员和军委副主席。如今习近平提前一年将张升民送进政治局,不排除为其明年留任铺路。 不过,张升民能否复制张又侠的先例,关键不在年龄,而在于习近平是否还需要他。2027年二十一大涉及习近平继续掌权和新一届军委人事布局。如果军队清洗尚未结束,习近平仍然需要张升民替自己扫清障碍,他就很可能破例留任;如果军队权力重组已经完成,张升民也只是一个过渡人物。 张又侠曾是习近平最倚重的军中人物,最终难逃被清洗的命运。如今张升民取代张又侠,成为军队权力重组的最大赢家,但谁能保证他不会重蹈覆辙? 说到底,张升民的政治前途,取决于他还能为习近平做多少事。明年二十一大,他能否继续留任,就看他能否带领军队完成为习近平连任保驾护航的使命。
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We need to step up our education of the Chinese political system big time if we are going to have any chance at peace or war. We are severely lacking in this space yet it is of paramount importance. We need to drop the hegemonic hubris and really learn our frenemy like the back of our hands. This is not a moment to retrench but to accept that we should do more to learn about China as a country instead of relying on outdated adages. We owe it to ourselves to be prepared.
Beijing would trade a million gen z Chinamaxxers for just one Kissinger with high level influence. Zhu Feng, Nanjing University: Kissinger's legacy remains “a profound asset for us to hold in our heart”
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Which should tell you that leaks are intentional when “leaked”, meaning that they aren’t really leaks, but mere extensions of Operation Mockingbird.
Zero leaks regarding the Trump/Netanyahu phone call in Israeli media. Interesting…
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I think this is noise as I expect zero escalation into year end
A very strange message but entirely aligned with my timeline for the next phase of the war… Based on my data, war will Restart between 6 Nov to 30 Nov between Iran, USA and Izzy. Kuwait Warning: The Directorate of Moral Guidance and Public Relations of the Kuwaiti Army announces to the dear brothers and citizens and residents the implementation by some units of the Kuwaiti Army of live ammunition firing south of the country. From 1 November until 5 November 2026. Signal, not noise.
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