Luke | Investing

I'm still here, just been offline for awhile. Haven't sold anything since I last posted, still holding the following: $AVGO June 2027 calls (down about 50%) $UBER Jan 2028 calls (down about 10%) $BABA June 2028 calls (down about 15%) - green today lol Bought more $QQQ today and $IREN today - shares I love a good fearful market! Keep buying quality, and if you have a little speculative appetite, a little of that too!

$SPCX just single-handedly restarted the AI bull run. Are you prepared for what is about to happen?

Something interesting is happening with AI stocks right now. They’re getting cheaper in TWO ways. Stock prices are falling. Meanwhile, fundamentals at some of the biggest AI companies continue improving. That’s multiple compression from both directions. I’m seeing it firsthand with my $AVGO calls. Both have taken a hit during this tech selloff. But look at what’s happening underneath the stock prices. Broadcom continues delivering strong growth. Recent results from $TSM and $ASML suggest AI infrastructure demand is anything but dead. Yet investors are selling the stocks. Why? Higher interest rates, elevated oil prices, and concerns about how long AI spending can continue. Those risks are real. But here’s where I stand. I don’t know if the bottom is in. I don’t know if these stocks fall another 10%. What I do know is that when a quality business keeps improving while its valuation compresses, I start paying attention. Eventually, buyers can recognize that disconnect. That’s what I’m betting on. Still holding my June 2027 $AVGO calls. Still holding my $IREN shares (recent position - small). I’m not trying to predict the next green day. I’m betting the businesses will ultimately matter more than the current sentiment. The question is whether this is healthy multiple compression or the beginning of a fundamental slowdown.

Okay fine, $TSLA you win!

There is no way $IREN ends the day green today... Is there?

One benefit of being sick right now; I couldn’t care less what the markets are doing. My positions are what they are. Nothing needs my attention this week!

Days like today the best thing to often do, is nothing. I’m not closing any positions today, just riding it out. Buying more when I like the price.

I made $67,000 on $META calls. Now I've put $31,040 into $BABA calls. I'm looking for the same type of opportunity, but there's one major difference. META was a beaten-down American technology giant. BABA is a beaten-down Chinese technology giant. Both have enormous businesses investing heavily in AI. Both have cloud infrastructure. Both have the potential to benefit from growing AI demand. But Alibaba comes with risks META doesn't. China regulation. Geopolitics. Investor distrust. That's part of why I think the opportunity exists. I bought 10 June 2028 $115 calls. I'm betting that Alibaba Cloud continues growing, AI becomes a bigger contributor, and the market eventually assigns the business a higher valuation. I could be completely wrong. And unlike shares, these calls have an expiration date. But I've had four options trades return over 100% this year. All four came from buying quality businesses when sentiment was ugly. I'm looking for number five. Is $BABA an undervalued AI opportunity, or does the China discount deserve to stay?

I put $31,040 into $BABA calls. I'm currently down almost $6,000. And I still think this could become one of my best trades. Here's why. Alibaba isn't just a Chinese e-commerce company anymore. It's also building a major cloud and AI business. My thesis is that investors are underestimating what that business could eventually be worth. I bought 10 June 2028 $115 calls. I'm betting on three things: Alibaba Cloud continues growing. AI becomes a meaningful earnings contributor. The market eventually assigns Alibaba a higher valuation. But there's a reason the stock trades at a discount. China risk is real. Competition is real. And AI growth doesn't automatically translate into shareholder returns. That's why I bought time. I don't need BABA to rally next week. I need the business to execute over the next 20 months. Would you rather own $BABA at today's valuation or pay a premium for an American tech company?

My portfolio is up roughly 26% YTD. And several of my recent investments are losing money. $IREN shares: -$9,691 $BABA calls: -$5,790 $AVGO calls: -$1,725 Meanwhile, my $UBER calls are up $2,940. I'm sharing the losers for the same reason I shared my $67,000 META win. You can't judge an investing strategy by only looking at the winners. I'm still bullish on these businesses, but being bullish doesn't mean I'm guaranteed to be right. I have to keep checking whether the fundamentals support the original thesis. The foundation remains $QQQ. The individual positions are where I'm taking additional risk. Road to $1M continues. I'll keep showing the wins and losses.

I put $30,150 into $UBER calls because I think Wall Street is getting the robotaxi threat wrong. Everyone is talking about Waymo and $TSLA replacing Uber. Meanwhile, Uber is still growing, generating cash, and operating a massive transportation network. I bought 30 January 2028 $80 calls. My thesis isn't that autonomous vehicles will fail. It's that Uber could benefit from autonomous vehicles rather than be destroyed by them. If robotaxis become widespread, somebody still needs to connect riders with available vehicles. Uber already has the customers. The question is whether Waymo and Tesla need Uber more than Uber needs them. I'm betting the market is underestimating Uber's position. Am I missing something?

Sold 3x $HOOD $100 puts Thursday at $3.81. Earnings land Oct 27, right inside the window. On purpose. Day 4: +$109 paper. Strike sits 8.3% below spot. My real basis is $96.19, 11.8% below spot. The cushion IS the event plan. You don't dodge earnings. You price them in before you sell. Reminder - never sell puts on a stock you would not be willing to own!

Someone just paid me $849 to potentially buy 100 shares of $AVGO. Here's the trade: Sold 1 AVGO $335 put Expiration: November 27 Premium collected: $849 If assigned, my effective cost is $326.51 per share. And I'm comfortable owning Broadcom at that price. I've already been building a position in long-dated AVGO calls. Why? I believe AI infrastructure demand is going to keep growing, and Broadcom is one of the companies positioned to benefit. I'm not trying to predict tomorrow's price. I'm looking for opportunities to own quality businesses at prices I like. If AVGO stays above $335 through expiration, I keep the premium. If I'm assigned, I buy 100 shares at $335. Either way, the important part is deciding what I'm willing to pay BEFORE looking at the premium. That's how I sell puts.

$IREN might be sitting on something bigger than most people realize. The Information reports a multiyear AI cloud deal with Anthropic. Microsoft, NVIDIA, and potentially Anthropic on the customer list. I’ve been accumulating shares around a $39 average. My thesis is simple: AI needs infrastructure, computing power, and electricity. IREN is positioning itself to supply all three. Still holding and building my position.

What stock is everyone dead wrong about right now?