FINANCIAL MARKETS, NEWS, AND TECHNOLOGY | SWING TRADER & INVESTOR | CORPORATE & STRATEGIC FINANCE SPECIALIST | M&A | POSTS ARE OPINION OR PERSONAL RESEARCH

WallStreet
Joined May 2020
$CCXI / $AGLT - @agilityrobotics Upsized position by 50% at $10.72 Overall market sentiment sucks, but want to see if this one gains any traction over the next two weeks heading into the vote Will adjust / reposition based on how its trading closer to the redemption deadline
$CCXI / $AGLT - @agilityrobotics Finally opened a position here at $10.96 today. Like the risk/reward heading into the merger with NAV likely being around $10.24 Asymmetric opportunity until the redemption deadline, IMO
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$AGLT (Agility Robotics) has cleared SEC review for public listing through $CCXI If you want an estimate timeline: ~Oct 13 (today): SEC S-4 declared effective ~Nov 2nd (shareholder vote): for merger approval ~November: Merger closing and ticker goes live for trading. Company’s official statement was: “The business combination remains subject to approval by Churchill XI shareholders and other customary closing conditions, and is expected to close in November 2026.” So likely less than a month away for the first pure play US humanoid company to go live!
One step closer to Nasdaq: the SEC has declared effective our Form S-4 for the proposed business combination with Churchill Capital Corp XI (Nasdaq: CCXI). Expected ticker: AGLT Read the announcement: agilityrobotics.com/content/…
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MNT on X retweeted
$CCXI: Agility Robotics and Churchill Capital Corp XI S-4 Registration Statement Declared Effective by SEC in Connection with Proposed Business Combination
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$CCXI / $AGLT - @agilityrobotics Finally opened a position here at $10.96 today. Like the risk/reward heading into the merger with NAV likely being around $10.24 Asymmetric opportunity until the redemption deadline, IMO
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Received 19 / 100 $SPCX - @SpaceX shares that I requested on $HOOD - @RobinhoodApp
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Hope everyone has a great Memorial Day weekend! 🇺🇸
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$SOLS - Solstice Advanced Materials Another name that is continuing to make new all time highs... now up over 100% since the buys in November!
$SOLS - Solstice Advanced Materials New all time highs again today on the back of a great Q4 2025 earnings report! They also announced the initiation of a quarterly dividend and an expansion of their Metropolis Works uranium conversion facility. Up ~70% since November
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$Q - Qnity Electronics Another great earnings report and guidance raise yesterday! Continuing to make new all time highs and now up over 125% since the buys back in November
$Q - Qnity Electronics Buys in the $70s are looking nice after it's recovery to mid $80s My favorite semiconductor supply chain play. IMO, given it's high single-digit growth rate and leading margins, it should trade at a premium to closest peer $ENTG - Entegris Supplies semiconductor materials across the entire value chain (chip fabrication, advanced packaging, PCB building, and assembly / display) for leading blue chip companies like TSMC - $TSM, Nvidia - $NVDA, Micron - $MU, Microsoft - $MSFT, Google - $GOOGL, Raytheon - $RX, Boeing - $BA, Toyota - $TM, Intel - $INTC, etc...
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$CBRS - @cerebras Reuters reports that Cerebras is now considering raising its IPO price range to $150 - $160 per share and increasing the number of shares offered from 28 to 30 million This could raise upwards of $4.8 billion cash Going to be a very interesting Thursday!
$CBRS - @cerebras Cerebras expects to raise their IPO price range to $125 - $135 per share Said to be more than 20x oversubscribed
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$CBRS - @cerebras Cerebras expects to raise their IPO price range to $125 - $135 per share Said to be more than 20x oversubscribed
$CBRS - @cerebras Already over $10 billion worth of demand for the $3.5 billion of shares being offered Likely to see the price range ($115 - $125) and / or number of shares offered (28M) increase Looking forward to this IPO next week
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$CBRS - @cerebras Already over $10 billion worth of demand for the $3.5 billion of shares being offered Likely to see the price range ($115 - $125) and / or number of shares offered (28M) increase Looking forward to this IPO next week
Cerebras is telling institutional investors placing orders in its IPO to specify the number of shares and the maximum price they’re willing to pay, sources say, another sign that the AI chipmaker’s shares are in high demand bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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$Q - Qnity Electronics Up ~10% in pre-market and making new all time highs after a great earnings and 2026 guide. Also announced a $500M stock buyback Now up over 70% since mid-November
$Q - Qnity Electronics Buys in the $70s are looking nice after it's recovery to mid $80s My favorite semiconductor supply chain play. IMO, given it's high single-digit growth rate and leading margins, it should trade at a premium to closest peer $ENTG - Entegris Supplies semiconductor materials across the entire value chain (chip fabrication, advanced packaging, PCB building, and assembly / display) for leading blue chip companies like TSMC - $TSM, Nvidia - $NVDA, Micron - $MU, Microsoft - $MSFT, Google - $GOOGL, Raytheon - $RX, Boeing - $BA, Toyota - $TM, Intel - $INTC, etc...
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$SOLS - Solstice Advanced Materials New all time highs again today on the back of a great Q4 2025 earnings report! They also announced the initiation of a quarterly dividend and an expansion of their Metropolis Works uranium conversion facility. Up ~70% since November
$SOLS - Solstice Advanced Materials Had some bids fill around $42 this morning as I continue to build out my position Spin-off volatility and associated selling pressure is making the valuation even more compelling, IMO Trading at trailing multiples of 1.83x revenue and 6.98x EBITDA The most overlooked aspect of the business, especially by the nuclear traders / investors, is the complete monopoly they hold on the domestic uranium UF6 conversion market... Solstice's Metropolis Works facility is the ONLY uranium hexafluoride (UF6) conversion facility in the United States and is designated a strategic national security asset by the Department of Energy with a sole-source contract from the government for UF6 conversion to support federal uranium stockpiling They're also 1 of only 10 conversion facilities globally and hold a 23% - 25% global market share of UF6 conversion with a $2 billion order back-log and sold out at their current capacity through 2028 This is in addition to the thematic exposure they have to both the semiconductor supply chain and data center infrastructure
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Three names that I liked in Q4 for their valuation and thematic relevance have performed exceptionally well and continue to remain strong relative to the overall market: $SOLS - Solstice Advanced Materials $Q - Qnity Electronics $HON - Honeywell
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$Q - Qnity Electronics Buys in the $70s are looking nice after it's recovery to mid $80s My favorite semiconductor supply chain play. IMO, given it's high single-digit growth rate and leading margins, it should trade at a premium to closest peer $ENTG - Entegris Supplies semiconductor materials across the entire value chain (chip fabrication, advanced packaging, PCB building, and assembly / display) for leading blue chip companies like TSMC - $TSM, Nvidia - $NVDA, Micron - $MU, Microsoft - $MSFT, Google - $GOOGL, Raytheon - $RX, Boeing - $BA, Toyota - $TM, Intel - $INTC, etc...
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$SOLS - Solstice Advanced Materials xitter.cf/MNTonX/status/19857377…
$SOLS - Solstice Advanced Materials Had some bids fill around $42 this morning as I continue to build out my position Spin-off volatility and associated selling pressure is making the valuation even more compelling, IMO Trading at trailing multiples of 1.83x revenue and 6.98x EBITDA The most overlooked aspect of the business, especially by the nuclear traders / investors, is the complete monopoly they hold on the domestic uranium UF6 conversion market... Solstice's Metropolis Works facility is the ONLY uranium hexafluoride (UF6) conversion facility in the United States and is designated a strategic national security asset by the Department of Energy with a sole-source contract from the government for UF6 conversion to support federal uranium stockpiling They're also 1 of only 10 conversion facilities globally and hold a 23% - 25% global market share of UF6 conversion with a $2 billion order back-log and sold out at their current capacity through 2028 This is in addition to the thematic exposure they have to both the semiconductor supply chain and data center infrastructure
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$BMNR - @BitMNR @fundstrat BMNR now below $20 and $ETH below $2,000 Watch for the $1,700 area on $ETH, which is the only remaining major moving average (100 Monthly MA), which was the spot it bounced during the 1H 2025 sell-off
$BMNR - @BitMNR @fundstrat Seeing new lows since the start of their $ETH treasury strategy on the back of a very weak crypto market As of this morning, they now hold 4,285,125 $ETH, which is currently worth $9.9B They also have $586M of treasury cash and $235M of other investments, which brings their total NAV to $10.7B Using VWAPs to estimate the number of shares issued via ATM since their last official update (10-Q filing on 01/13/26), current estimated total outstanding shares sit at 455,661,585 This results in a NAV / Share of $23.57 and currently trading at an estimated mNAV of 0.96x Note - other investments include 13,698,630 shares of $ORBS, 192 $BTC, and a $200M investment in Beast Industries Personal thoughts - I still have yet to re-enter this name after closing my position back at the end of August. I will say that these prices are becoming increasingly interesting, but there is also a lot of uncertainty with the broader crypto market. $ETH is currently below every major moving average on the daily and weekly charts. The next major support is the 100MA on the monthly at $1,700. If $ETH does find a bottom soon, BMNR could make for a nice trade; however, they're now in a much weaker position trading so close to NAV (and currently below), which impacts their ability to raise easy capital via ATM and expand their treasury. The negative sentiment around this name also continues to grow, which will need to be overcome to see larger mNAV premiums again. Will continue watching for a potential swing trade as things progress.
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BREAKING: SpaceX and xAI have just formerly announced that they are merging. Full statement from Elon Musk: "SpaceX has acquired xAI to form the most ambitious, vertically-integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth, with AI, rockets, space-based internet, direct-to-mobile device communications and the world’s foremost real-time information and free speech platform. This marks not just the next chapter, but the next book in SpaceX and xAI's mission: scaling to make a sentient sun to understand the Universe and extend the light of consciousness to the stars! Current advances in AI are dependent on large terrestrial data centers, which require immense amounts of power and cooling. Global electricity demand for AI simply cannot be met with terrestrial solutions, even in the near term, without imposing hardship on communities and the environment. In the long term, space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale. To harness even a millionth of our Sun’s energy would require over a million times more energy than our civilization currently uses! The only logical solution therefore is to transport these resource-intensive efforts to a location with vast power and space. I mean, space is called “space” for a reason. 😂 By directly harnessing near-constant solar power with little operating or maintenance costs, these satellites will transform our ability to scale compute. It’s always sunny in space! Launching a constellation of a million satellites that operate as orbital data centers is a first step towards becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization, one that can harness the Sun’s full power, while supporting AI-driven applications for billions of people today and ensuring humanity’s multi-planetary future. In the history of spaceflight, there has never been a vehicle capable of launching the megatons of mass that space-based data centers or permanent bases on the Moon and cities on Mars require. Even in 2025, the most prolific year in history in terms of the number of orbital launches, only about 3000 tons of payload was launched into orbit, primarily consisting of Starlink satellites carried by our Falcon rocket. The requirement to launch thousands of satellites to orbit became a forcing function for the Falcon program, driving recursive improvements to reach the unprecedented flight rates necessary to make space-based internet a reality. This year, Starship will begin delivering the much more powerful V3 Starlink satellites to orbit, with each launch adding more than 20 times the capacity to the constellation as the current Falcon launches of the V2 Starlink satellites. Starship will also launch the next generation of direct-to-mobile satellites, which will deliver full cellular coverage everywhere on Earth. While the need to launch these satellites will act as a similar forcing function to drive Starship improvements and launch rates, the sheer number of satellites that will be needed for space-based data centers will push Starship to even greater heights. With launches every hour carrying 200 tons per flight, Starship will deliver millions of tons to orbit and beyond per year, enabling an exciting future where humanity is out exploring amongst the stars. The basic math is that launching a million tons per year of satellites generating 100 kW of compute power per ton would add 100 gigawatts of AI compute capacity annually, with no ongoing operational or maintenance needs. Ultimately, there is a path to launching 1 TW/year from Earth. My estimate is that within 2 to 3 years, the lowest cost way to generate AI compute will be in space. This cost-efficiency alone will enable innovative companies to forge ahead in training their AI models and processing data at unprecedented speeds and scales, accelerating breakthroughs in our understanding of physics and invention of technologies to benefit humanity. This new constellation will build upon the well-established space sustainability design and operational strategies, including end-of-life disposal, that have proven successful for SpaceX’s existing broadband satellite systems. While launching AI satellites from Earth is the immediate focus, Starship’s capabilities will also enable operations on other worlds. Thanks to advancements like in-space propellant transfer, Starship will be capable of landing massive amounts of cargo on the Moon. Once there, it will be possible to establish a permanent presence for scientific and manufacturing pursuits. Factories on the Moon can take advantage of lunar resources to manufacture satellites and deploy them further into space. By using an electromagnetic mass driver and lunar manufacturing, it is possible to put 500 to 1000 TW/year of AI satellites into deep space, meaningfully ascend the Kardashev scale and harness a non-trivial percentage of the Sun’s power. The capabilities we unlock by making space-based data centers a reality will fund and enable self-growing bases on the Moon, an entire civilization on Mars and ultimately expansion to the Universe. Thank you for everything you have done and will do for the light cone of consciousness."
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$BMNR - @BitMNR @fundstrat Seeing new lows since the start of their $ETH treasury strategy on the back of a very weak crypto market As of this morning, they now hold 4,285,125 $ETH, which is currently worth $9.9B They also have $586M of treasury cash and $235M of other investments, which brings their total NAV to $10.7B Using VWAPs to estimate the number of shares issued via ATM since their last official update (10-Q filing on 01/13/26), current estimated total outstanding shares sit at 455,661,585 This results in a NAV / Share of $23.57 and currently trading at an estimated mNAV of 0.96x Note - other investments include 13,698,630 shares of $ORBS, 192 $BTC, and a $200M investment in Beast Industries Personal thoughts - I still have yet to re-enter this name after closing my position back at the end of August. I will say that these prices are becoming increasingly interesting, but there is also a lot of uncertainty with the broader crypto market. $ETH is currently below every major moving average on the daily and weekly charts. The next major support is the 100MA on the monthly at $1,700. If $ETH does find a bottom soon, BMNR could make for a nice trade; however, they're now in a much weaker position trading so close to NAV (and currently below), which impacts their ability to raise easy capital via ATM and expand their treasury. The negative sentiment around this name also continues to grow, which will need to be overcome to see larger mNAV premiums again. Will continue watching for a potential swing trade as things progress.
$BMNR - @BitMNR @fundstrat First time revisiting this name since September They finally released an updated outstanding share count (as of November 20th), which currently sits at 384,067,823 shares As of Monday, November 17th they held 3,559,879 $ETH, which is currently worth $9.95B They also had $607M of treasury cash, which brings their total NAV to $10.56B Based on the latest official share count, their NAV / Share is $27.49 and they're currently trading at a 0.95x mNAV Note - They also own 13,698,630 shares of $ORBS, which is currently trading at $2.75 per share and worth $37M. Additionally, they own 192 $BTC currently trading at $86,650 and worth $16M. However, I did not include these in the NAV calculation Personal thoughts - It's interesting to see this name now trading below NAV. On one hand, it could be viewed as a good buying opportunity, since it presents an opportunity to own ETH at a discount; however, on the other hand, this presents challenges to Bitmine and their ability to use ATM sells to accretively grow their ETH holdings. There is also no saying when / if they regain a NAV premium, or if the NAV discount grows even further... take a look at $SBET - @Sharplink's struggles since losing their premium as an example. Additionally, there is currently a lot of uncertainty in the market for crypto and speculative assets like DATs, so that will be a headwind; however, if crypto does recover and the market turns back to "risk-on" mode, then BMNR shares could see some pretty nice gains. I don't currently hold a position, but something I'll monitor a bit more closely going forward
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