Marc

“The side in the Russia-Ukraine war that wins Donbas will actually lose the war.” — Anders Åslund, economist, diplomat, and expert on the Russian economy. In his article, Åslund explained why Donbas is a black hole that will drag anyone who decides to rebuild it into an abyss of economic, financial, political, and environmental problems. In other words, Donbas could bankrupt any state that takes responsibility for rebuilding it. “Donbas is a rust belt of old mines, steel mills, and chemical plants. Almost all coal mines and chemical enterprises are not operating… The rebels blew up railway bridges, making it more difficult to transport raw materials.” — Anders Åslund Since Russia occupied a large part of Donbas back in 2014, one could argue that it has already lost. The estimated cost of rebuilding Donbas alone is around $600 billion. If the war continues, those costs could double or even triple. Neither Ukraine nor Russia has that kind of money. Putin’s regime might be able to squeeze the money out of its population, but Ukraine cannot. It is unclear how many people have left the region since the full-scale war began in 2022. But in any case, Donbas’s predominantly elderly and impoverished population is unlikely to provide the foundation for an economic revival. In Russia, proposals have been made to compensate for the shortage of manpower by using rotational workers and settlers from Russia, labor migrants from Central Asia, and forced labor by Ukrainian prisoners of war. Donbas will almost certainly become a permanent source of political instability. If Ukraine restores control over the territory, pro-Russian forces will stage provocations, assassinate local officials, sabotage enterprises, and so on. If Russia retains Donbas, Ukraine will act in a similar way. Neither Ukraine nor Russia can simply renounce the region without violating their constitutions and provoking mass protests. For Putin, abandoning Donbas would mean admitting defeat and committing political suicide. The same applies to Ukraine and President Zelensky. If victory is defeat, does that mean defeat is victory? Whatever terms ultimately appear on the negotiating table, Ukrainians can take some consolation in this: because of Putin’s territorial ambitions, Russia will remain trapped in this black hole for a very long time. Moreover, Russia itself will gradually turn into Donbas. And perhaps that will ultimately be Ukraine’s greatest victory.