Markets, RWA, AI | Macro strategy. Technical, fundamental & quantitative analysis. Narratives, signals, data. Deep dives & theses. Reports worth bookmarking!
Joined September 2009
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Macro Alchemy retweeted
Millennials: The Rug Pull Generation.
Study hard and you'll get a good job. 2008 financial crisis.
Work hard and you'll own a home. Housing crisis.
Build a career and enjoy stability. Gig economy and layoffs.
Enjoy your prime years. Global pandemic.
Save for your future. Inflation.
Finally, AI might free us from working our lives away. Potential World War III.
Macro Alchemy retweeted
You have 11 open tabs
He has 11 open labs
Macro Alchemy retweeted
openai's internal model still has not produced a single result in gender studies
Macro Alchemy retweeted
This is getting insane. 🤯
CrowdStrike’s CEO says AI is now allowing low-skill hackers to pull off cyberattacks that once required nation-state-level resources.
All for the cost of a few tokens and a prompt.
The barrier to entry is collapsing. And we’re only getting started.
Macro Alchemy retweeted
We obviously haven’t had the major jobs wipeout yet. But you read stuff like this. And you read what economics students themselves are saying about working with AI (ht @odavis_h) and it’s hard not to feel like the seismic shift is on its way.
Macro Alchemy retweeted
I think I have a good analogy for what's about to happen in cyber.
It's pitch dark. Always has been. And the world is dilapidated buildings and rats and maggots and other creepy-crawlies. The whole world.
And we just invented flashlights.
Macro Alchemy retweeted
I getting a feeling that OpenAI and Anthropic soon will ditch customers completely, just use their models 100% internally and go all in on frontier science and engineering research
Like eg if they actually solve quantum gravity or cure cancer, and own the right to license the solution, can you imagine the ROI behind that? No more listening to users bitching about usage or model nerf or whatever
Dr. Christopher Stubbs is joining our Long-Term Benefit Trust. Chris is an experimental physicist and a former Dean of Science at Harvard University. He has also advised the US government on national security and arms control.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/christoph…
Macro Alchemy retweeted
what I've learned from this post is that almost no one is AGI-pilled and that they don't take seriously the possibility of tens to hundreds of millions of AIs working 24/7 at 10–100x human speed
Macro Alchemy retweeted
Things that don't matter (in the grand scheme of things):
- ARR, revenue, profitability, cash flow
- Which publicly available model can generate slightly more interesting game assets, viral videos, pelican SVGs, etc.
- Which publicly available model is slightly better in actual real-world use cases than other publicly available models
- Benchmarks
- Releases by non-frontier labs that claim to have caught up to the frontier (because the real frontier models are not publicly available)
Things that do matter:
- RSI
- Capabilities of frontier internal models
- Novel discoveries made by AI, especially those showcasing creativity, "research taste", etc.
- Advances in model safety
- LLMs manipulating robots, especially as models get to lower and lower latency
- Computer use, especially as models get to lower and lower latency
- China
Macro Alchemy retweeted
SI labs will never solve alignment.
they’re trying to solve a philosophical and theological problem as an engineering one.
they’ve assembled some of the greatest engineers on the planet, but put socially dysfunctional nerds with an incredibly shallow understanding of human nature in charge of defining what superintelligence should value.
humanity has spent thousands of years trying to align humans and always failed, we can’t even agree on what is good and now we expect a handful of engineers to solve the same problem for superintelligence? lmao, the hubris
you can’t align something with humanity if you don’t understand humanity in the first place.
at this point, you’re probably better off developing ASI and asking it how to solve alignment.
Macro Alchemy retweeted
definitely not in 2–3 months, but consider this:
1. the cost-capability pareto frontier keeps improving. models are getting cheaper and more efficient. the latest haiku seems to be as good as opus 4.6(?)
2. put models scheming aside, i dont buy that yet. but what if some random guy who took down fridges in a French supermarket for no gains decides to abliterate an open weight model capable of exploiting low hanging 0-days and n-days, and post trains it to self-replicate?
3. also consider this, in the hugging face incident, there was no incentive for the model to exfiltrate or replicate itself. but what if a slightly misaligned model is given a task where self replication becomes a step toward solving it?
if you consider these possibilities, the idea doesn't look that far-fetched.
anthropic.com/research/self-…
