Investor in emerging market real estate, equities & bonds. In Eastern Europe since 2015. I also work with clients to access superior opportunities abroad.
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Joined March 2012
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Thank you for the new (and existing) follows 🫡 Sharing a bit about me.
Background
- No formal background in finance. Worked in tech startups (2015-2021). Quit during the 2021 crypto bull market to focus more on private investing.
- Was in crypto 2019-2025. Did OK and learnt a lot on how finance works in the DeFi world. xitter.cf/MacroJason/status/2019…
- Early 30s. Lived across 3 parts of the world. A multilingual and multi citizenship 'globalist' who ironically distrusts globalism and buys into a good amount of associated conspiracies.
What I invest in now:
I'm a top down macro investor. I identify themes and countries I believe in, then select the most assymetrical investment instrument to express that view.
1. Romanian and Polish real estate: my primary position. 20%> AAR since 2018. xitter.cf/MacroJason/status/1887…
2. High yield fixed income: began investing after the Ukraine war started in 2022 and yields spiked especially in Eastern Europe. From Hungarian, Romanian and Kazakh sovereign debt to Uzbekistan corp bonds at 29% YTM
flagventures.com/blog/xycf30…
3. Global equities: concentrated portfolio on energy, shipping and Kazakhstan banking. I attribute a good amount of my high returns to date to beginners luck. Will be happy if my returns averages out at ~20% AAR overtime. xitter.cf/MacroJason/status/2039…
📩 I have a private newsletter which you can subscribe to for free. I do the opposite of spamming. I'm lazy with newsletters and sent out around 4 last year. flagventures.com/
Wrapped up first quarter 2026 with 91.23% YTD returns on my equities portfolio.
Current holdings (not much changes since start of year):
Oil & Gas: $PBR, $VAR, $ARX.TO
xitter.cf/MacroJason/status/2029…
Coal: $TGA.L, $YAL.AX
xitter.cf/MacroJason/status/2031…
Kazakhstan banking & fintech: $HSBK and $KSPI
xitter.cf/MacroJason/status/2028…
Shipping (RoRo): $HAUTO, $WAWI
xitter.cf/MacroJason/status/2018…
Chinese shipping ports: 1199.HK, 144.HK, 6198.HK
xitter.cf/MacroJason/status/2038…
Got rid of small positions in $CIG and $NVO.
Just bought some $EWZ (Brazil ETF) - purely based off vibes that a 20% overnight sell off is an over-reaction. Not financial advice.
Some of you know I sold off nearly all my stocks this summer but this seems like a fun short term bet. Now that Lula is politically secured, maybe he will make some statements to calm the markets. He has done that in the past when the markets plunged a lot.
Looks like my prediction about Lula winning came true. Probably not great for Brazil internally but I maintain my view that Brazil will continue to be ‘basically fine’ from a geopolitical and markets (stocks and bonds) perspective. I.e. unlikely to underperform LatAm average.
Foreign investors and institutions trust Lula more than locals assume. Ironically more than they trust ‘free market’ Argentina, as evident by interest rate differential and credit rating.
Brazil is the only LatAm country I find interesting due to its sovereignty. On a basic sense, the only LatAm country where Trump can’t fly in and extract the President if he wanted to. A cool and solid second world country (that I can’t visit as Lula might jail me for my tweets). $PBR $BLTN $EWZ $CIG
Good overview video on $EWZ
xitter.cf/Peter_Lukacs_R/status/…
🇧🇷 iShares MSCI Brazil ETF $EWZ — 2026 Outlook
✅ High real rates (~10%) attracting capital
✅ Strong capital inflows & resilient currency
📊 Solid macro backdrop with steady growth
🗳️ Election odds favor Jair Bolsonaro (more pro-business) over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
🏦 EWZ: banks, commodities, energy heavy
💰 ~12x P/E with solid yield
Full video:
youtu.be/yQG5tRr5vZ8?si=iKDP…
Once you remove the false hope that Brazil can be a first world country but also the emotionally charged negativity that Brazil will imminently turn 'third world' just because the candidate you like didn't win an election - you can truly appreciate Brazil for what it is (both as an investor or otherwise): a solid and sovereign second world country, with incredible funk music. God bless Brazil. $EWZ $PBR $BLTN $CIG $NU
agree
my take is that Brazil will be fine regardless of who wins the election.
commodity prices matter more than political cycles, the central bank remains independent, foreign trade is diversified, and both sides have limited room to maneuver given the fiscal constraints.
political rhetoric aside, Brazil remains a sovereign and relatively predictable market for long-term investors.
@LulaOficial Patrão - I'm single handedly propping up Brazil's stock market from further bloodbath. Can you grant me a pre-emptive Presidential pardon so I can visit Brazil without getting arrested for my tweets?
xitter.cf/MacroJason/status/2113…
Brazil has more white people than any European country minus Russia. It also has more natural resources than all of Europe combined minus Russia. Why is it so poor?
Because in a democracy, the lower IQ portion of society can hold everyone back, through being stupid and annoying on a daily basis and especially during elections.
Investors in $EWZ $PBR $BLTN - you understand the natural resource wealth of Brazil but its important to understand Brazil's median IQ limitation too.
Looks like my prediction about Lula winning came true. Probably not great for Brazil internally but I maintain my view that Brazil will continue to be ‘basically fine’ from a geopolitical and markets (stocks and bonds) perspective. I.e. unlikely to underperform LatAm average.
Foreign investors and institutions trust Lula more than locals assume. Ironically more than they trust ‘free market’ Argentina, as evident by interest rate differential and credit rating.
Brazil is the only LatAm country I find interesting due to its sovereignty. On a basic sense, the only LatAm country where Trump can’t fly in and extract the President if he wanted to. A cool and solid second world country (that I can’t visit as Lula might jail me for my tweets). $PBR $BLTN $EWZ $CIG
I don’t really know what’s happening in Brazil but if I had to bet - I believe the highly intelligent people of Brazil will re-elect Lula and Lula will continue to be ‘basically fine’ from geopolitics, economy and markets perspective. Or to put it different, I highly doubt Bolsonaro will do better on those fronts.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
I was attacked by leftist and zionists at university - they tried to get me expelled and fired from my internship. They made it impossible for me to get a corporate job (especially during the peak woke era of 2010s) - because when any employer would google my name, their articles about me would come up (sexist, anti semitic, transphobic etc). So I never bothered with a corporate job and found another way.
So yes, I understand why some choose to post anonymously. Though I consider the best way to defeat them is to post publicly, when one can afford to do so, granted that 'free speech is not free'. I'm allowed to have my opinion and I never attacked you - in fact, I spoke well of your work.
The saddest characters on X are those whose entire identity is based around being highly political and negative - yet as grown men, lack the courage and sovereignty to post with their real identity.
They hide behind a digital burqa and live the life of Dostoevsky’s ‘underground man’ - sick and spiteful.
In some ways, I respect ‘zionist influencers’ more in the Dostoevskian sense that they are at least ‘men of action’ - unafraid to leave their basement and engage the world with their real identity.
By 2075 - AI and robotics may render sub 110 IQ work completely useless. What will 93% of the world do?
It will be an increasingly winner takes all world. Benefiting countries with: a high number of geniuses combined with a high median IQ to not get in the way of geniuses (by voting incorrectly, rioting or disturbing the peace in general).
Sub 110 IQ countries with natural resources will at least be useful colonies. But those without resources and a large, economically unproductive and aging population are rekted.
'Every emerging market outside of Eastern Europe and Central Asia stays emerging forever, due to low median IQ - especially with robotics and AI' - @MacroJason
Serbia is one of the few places in Europe with no ‘holocaust denial laws’.
Serbia also makes money selling weapons to Isreal whilst simultaneously being amongst the first European countries to recognise Palestine State and maintain good relations with Iran. It also didn’t join the US in bombing Iraq that many NATO CEE countries did.
Very optimal model for a small state - neutral on a governmental level, focused on economic benefits. Whilst letting your citizens make memes about Jews or Mohamed without being arrested.
I'm not joking when I say that Serbia & non-EU Balkans is the freest part of Europe and possibly the world. Where you can be as pro or anti zionism as you want. Pro Russia or pro Ukraine. Where you can support woke ideology and sodomy or be an Orthodox ethno-nationalist.
Poland is high up there - but you can get arrested for 'holocaust denial', for being 'pro Russia' and liberals are trying to pass 'LGBT hate speech' laws too.
In the US, 1st amendment on paper protects free speech but de facto you will lose your job, get de-banked and face serious social consequences if you speak up on certain topics in the US.
Don’t make the same mistake as me
Purchasing power standard in Bucharest is 188% that of EU average. In Budapest it is 168%.
xitter.cf/MacroJason/status/2093…
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
The future of the West ought to be Romanian and Polish - not Indian.
Brazil has more white people than any European country minus Russia. It also has more natural resources than all of Europe combined minus Russia. Why is it so poor?
Because in a democracy, the lower IQ portion of society can hold everyone back, through being stupid and annoying on a daily basis and especially during elections.
Investors in $EWZ $PBR $BLTN - you understand the natural resource wealth of Brazil but its important to understand Brazil's median IQ limitation too.
🇧🇷 In the 1970s, Brazil was briefly richer than Portugal (GDP per capita). But as Brazil's demographics changed, it's economic performance also changed. $EWZ
In the 1970s, Brazil was 60% White. Today it's 40%.
Today the US is also around 60% White. It's expected to be majority non white in 2045.
How do you explain monetary economics to a ~80 IQ audience? Bolsonaro does a fairly good job at it
xitter.cf/Jesse_Livermore/status…
Here's an english-dubbed clip of the Bolsonaro x Lula debate where you can see the setup in practice.
They let the format slip a bit in this specific clip when they let Lula go back to Bolsonaro with the "Why did you (your father) make the central bank independent?" question. But the clip is still sufficient to convey the format.
Bolsonaro accepted the question because he had a good answer "To prevent reckless spenders like you from turning Brazil into Argentina." (Rest of his answer wasn't very impressive, though, since he's basically copying the PT's empty populist promises).
The leader of the Polish 'libertarian far right' (cool combo) is a self made bitcoiner worth €15 million. He drives a €34K car and is selling it without intermediaries to save 5-10% commission.
I noticed this thriftiness amongst high net worth Poles (especially aged 35+). E.g. met other landlords who have bigger real estate portfolios than me but they avoid hiring handyman for simple things like changing the door lock or installing blinds, as they consider it 'a waste of money' and DIY instead.
Very different to 'real' Eastern Europe, where there's much more of an emphasis on showing your wealth and appearing abundant. Probably due to more Protestant & Germanic influence on Poland than rest of CEE.
Naturally comment section is full of Poles criticizing him for driving a German car. Though I do occasionally enjoy this genre of Polish humor:
xitter.cf/JJIzydorczyk/status/21…
A lot of people are giving Vucic a hard time for this but I think she can be rented for max €10K / week which is a good deal. Solid analysis here on why it made sense to rent her: xitter.cf/bibo_247/status/211367…
Look at the amount of content she is pumping out capturing all the culture war talking points which works very well for certain voters. Also find it entertaining that the higher IQ Israeli was given more complicated talking points (GDP, EU, dunking on Croatia) whereas the Mexican (@ValentinaForUSA) was given the simpler talking points ('doctors and engineers' etc).
It's funny how many anons think they are smarter than Vucic. He stayed in power for 14 years - no less in a Balkan country (!) and mogged every European leader in terms of geopolitical achievements. Have some faith in the man and 'trust the plan'!
You need to spend some time in the Balkans to understand why this works on their blue collar TikTok Gen Z
