Investor in emerging market real estate, equities & bonds. In Eastern Europe since 2015. I also work with clients to access superior opportunities abroad.
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Joined March 2012
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Just bought some $EWZ (Brazil ETF) - purely based off vibes that a 20% overnight sell off is an over-reaction. Not financial advice.
Some of you know I sold off nearly all my stocks this summer but this seems like a fun short term bet. Now that Lula is politically secured, maybe he will make some statements to calm the markets. He has done that in the past when the markets plunged a lot.
Looks like my prediction about Lula winning came true. Probably not great for Brazil internally but I maintain my view that Brazil will continue to be ‘basically fine’ from a geopolitical and markets (stocks and bonds) perspective. I.e. unlikely to underperform LatAm average.
Foreign investors and institutions trust Lula more than locals assume. Ironically more than they trust ‘free market’ Argentina, as evident by interest rate differential and credit rating.
Brazil is the only LatAm country I find interesting due to its sovereignty. On a basic sense, the only LatAm country where Trump can’t fly in and extract the President if he wanted to. A cool and solid second world country (that I can’t visit as Lula might jail me for my tweets). $PBR $BLTN $EWZ $CIG
Once you remove the false hope that Brazil can be a first world country but also the emotionally charged negativity that Brazil will imminently turn 'third world' just because the candidate you like didn't win an election - you can truly appreciate Brazil for what it is (both as an investor or otherwise): a solid and sovereign second world country, with incredible funk music. God bless Brazil. $EWZ $PBR $BLTN $CIG $NU
agree
my take is that Brazil will be fine regardless of who wins the election.
commodity prices matter more than political cycles, the central bank remains independent, foreign trade is diversified, and both sides have limited room to maneuver given the fiscal constraints.
political rhetoric aside, Brazil remains a sovereign and relatively predictable market for long-term investors.
I was attacked by leftist and zionists at university - they tried to get me expelled and fired from my internship. They made it impossible for me to get a corporate job (especially during the peak woke era of 2010s) - because when any employer would google my name, their articles about me would come up (sexist, anti semitic, transphobic etc). So I never bothered with a corporate job and found another way.
So yes, I understand why some choose to post anonymously. Though I consider the best way to defeat them is to post publicly, when one can afford to do so, granted that 'free speech is not free'. I'm allowed to have my opinion and I never attacked you - in fact, I spoke well of your work.
Thanks! I share similar views. Glad to have spent some time in Hungary during Orban years. One of the few times when I paid taxes to a State and felt it went to something generally good.
By 2075 - AI and robotics may render sub 110 IQ work completely useless. What will 93% of the world do?
It will be an increasingly winner takes all world. Benefiting countries with: a high number of geniuses combined with a high median IQ to not get in the way of geniuses (by voting incorrectly, rioting or disturbing the peace in general).
Sub 110 IQ countries with natural resources will at least be useful colonies. But those without resources and a large, economically unproductive and aging population are rekted.
'Every emerging market outside of Eastern Europe and Central Asia stays emerging forever, due to low median IQ - especially with robotics and AI' - @MacroJason
