Mathias Eick retweeted
The White House Council of Economic Advisers claims illegal immigrants cost taxpayers $166,716 each. Cato's @David_J_Bier says those estimates aren't credible. They have actually reduced federal, state, and local deficits by $1.7 trillion over 30 years.
ow.ly/kNi151015Zf
Mathias Eick retweeted
Per tanti che stanno leggendo questo post :
Basterebbe fermarsi due minuti a verificare prima di rilanciare acriticamente il primo post allarmista trovato su internet. Quello che viene spacciato come uno scandalo istituzionale in realtà dimostra solo una cosa: non si ha la minima idea di come funzioni una procedura elettorale, né in Brasile né in qualsiasi altro Paese democratico.
Tanto per cominciare, la carica attribuita a Kassio Nunes nel tweet è del tutto inventata: non è mai stato il Presidente del Tribunale Superiore Elettorale. Il presidente era Alexandre de Moraes, mentre Nunes Marques è semplicemente un magistrato nominato alla Corte Suprema proprio da Bolsonaro.
Attribuirgli un annuncio ufficiale a nome dell’intero organo per far credere che le istituzioni stiano per cancellare l’esito del voto è pura manipolazione.
Poi c’è la questione dei seggi: l'idea che i voti espressi dopo l'orario di chiusura debbano essere stracciati è una sciocchezza giuridica. In Brasile, esattamente come da noi in Italia, chi all'orario limite si trova già all'interno del seggio o in coda ha il pieno diritto di votare.
Gli scrutatori distribuiscono un tagliando numerato a chi è in fila e si continua fino all’ultima persona registrata. Non si tratta di "estendere le votazioni" o di inventarsi regole illegali, ma di garantire un diritto costituzionale fondamentale.
La logica del «se togliamo quei voti vince Bolsonaro» è grottesca: pretende di cancellare le schede delle periferie e delle grandi metropoli, dove le code sono inevitabilmente più lunghe a causa dell’alta densità abitativa.
Non è una contestazione legale seria, è la solita scorciatoia da tifoseria politica che preferisce inventarsi i brogli a tavolino piuttosto che accettare che la maggioranza degli elettori abbia votato diversamente.
ULTIMO MINUTO!
El Presidente del Tribunal Superior Electoral de Brasil, Kassio Nunes, acaba de hacer una advertencia demoledora contra Lula..."No existe ninguna regla que permitiera extender las votaciones dos horas", como lo hizo a juro y en forma personal el exabogado de Lula y ahora miembro del Tribunal Supremo, puesto por Lula, Cristiano Zanin...Esa extensión, solo en áreas donde dominaba el partido de Lula, revertió la tendencia que era a favor de Bolsonaro...Da a entender Nunes que la elección presidencial del domingo en Brasil puede ser anulada, toda, o los votos emitidos después de la hora oficial de cierre...En este último caso, Bolsonaro sería el vencedor y nuevo Presidente de Brasil.
Mathias Eick retweeted
BREAKING: Sweden buys a different brand of vaccine, and the anti-vaccine movement declares victory over molecular biology.
Yes, Sweden selected a protein-based COVID vaccine for its 2027–2028 national procurement.
What your post conveniently omits is that Sweden’s own public-health agency continues to describe mRNA vaccines as effective against severe COVID.
And here’s the delicious part: Novavax contains the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.
You know, the protein you’ve spent years telling everyone is poison.
The difference is that Novavax delivers the manufactured protein, while mRNA vaccines instruct cells to produce it temporarily.
A purchasing decision is not evidence of a medical catastrophe.
Sweden changed its vaccine supplier. You changed the meaning of the announcement.
Perhaps next time, read the Swedish public-health guidance before announcing what Sweden believes.
Zweden laat mRNA‑vaccins los 🇸🇪
Zweden stapt vanaf het vaccinatieseizoen 2027/2028 volledig over op een eiwitgebaseerd coronavaccin. Het land laat daarmee als eerste de mRNA‑vaccins van Pfizer en Moderna achter zich.
Het gekozen vaccin, Nuvaxovid, bevat een kant‑en‑klaar spike‑eiwit dat direct een immuunreactie opwekt - anders dan bij mRNA‑vaccins, waarbij het lichaam het eiwit zelf moet aanmaken. Over de mRNA-techniek bestaat internationaal al langer discussie.
Zweden koos tijdens de coronajaren vaker een eigen koers, zonder lockdowns en schoolsluitingen. Met de overstap naar een eiwitvaccin lijkt het opnieuw een voortrekkersrol te nemen.
Het Artsen Collectief pleit samen met Europese partners al langer voor stopzetting van mRNA‑vaccinaties.
Wil je het artikel lezen? Kijk voor de link in de comments.
Mathias Eick retweeted
Oggi tantissimi giornalisti politicizzati, specialmente di una certa fazione, si sono letteralmente inventati il «golpe dell’anno» spacciando per truffa ciò che è semplicemente la normale applicazione delle leggi costituzionali.
Per chi mi segue e per evitare di dover rispondere una per una alle idiozie rilanciate in massa nei commenti, ecco il riepilogo definitivo di norme, articoli di legge, procedure e dati reali.
1. I seggi aperti oltre le 17:00 Nessun seggio è stato riaperto arbitrariamente alle 19:00: l'art. 153 della Legge Federale 4.737/1965 (Codice Elettorale) e la Resolução TSE 23.669/2021 vietano di interrompere le operazioni se alle 17:00 ci sono ancora elettori in coda. Vengono distribuiti tagliandi numerati (senhas) finché non vota l'ultimo presente (esattamente come l'art. 64 d.P.R. 361/1957 in Italia). L'istanza formale per tutelare gli elettori in fila e gestire le emergenze è stata depositata anche dai delegati di Bolsonaro!
2. I magistrati e la gestione del voto In Brasile, per mandato costituzionale (artt. 118-121), non c'è un ministero politico a gestire le urne: la competenza logistica ed elettorale spetta in via esclusiva alla Justiça Eleitoral e al TSE. Qualsiasi atto organizzativo su orari, trasporti o maltempo è emanato da magistrati elettorali. Non è un'intrusione giudiziaria: è l'autorità amministrativa preposta dallo Stato.
3. La bufala dell'«ex avvocato di Lula al TSE» Nel 2022 Cristiano Zanin era un avvocato privato e non faceva parte di alcun tribunale (la nomina al Supremo Tribunale Federale è avvenuta solo nell'estate 2023)! A presiedere il TSE nel 2022 c'era Alexandre de Moraes, magistrato nominato alla Corte Suprema dal presidente conservatore di centrodestra Michel Temer. Dire che un giudice «ha dato una mano» è una calunnia smentita dalla cronologia istituzionale.
4. Lo spoglio alle 17:00 e i presunti «6 milioni» Alle 17:00 i seggi chiudono e lo spoglio ufficiale era a ZERO per cento! Le urnas eletrônicas brasiliane operano offline e stampano il verbale cartaceo fisico (boletim de urna) solo dopo la chiusura delle operazioni. Non esisteva alcun dato parziale da «ribaltare» prima della chiusura. I voti trattenuti in coda con tagliando erano poche decine di migliaia in tutto il Paese, non milioni.
5. La rimonta di Lula: geografia elettorale, non algoritmi Il Sud, il Centro-Ovest e le grandi aree urbane del Sud-Est (favorevoli a Bolsonaro) hanno chiuso e caricato i verbali per primi. Dalle 18:30 in poi sono confluiti i dati ufficiali dei 9 Stati della Regione Nord-Est, feudo storico laburista dove Lula ha stravinto con oltre il 67% staccando l'avversario di oltre 12 milioni di voti regolari. Si chiama flusso territoriale dello spoglio (lo stesso identico fenomeno del red/blue shift negli Stati Uniti).
6. «Destra al 59% in Parlamento ma perde il Presidente» Confusione dilettantesca tra seggi (escaños) e voti popolari. Il 59% si riferisce alla quota di parlamentari eletti su base federale. Il Senato assegna 3 seggi fissi a ogni Stato (il piccolo Roraima con 600 mila residenti elegge gli stessi 3 senatori di San Paolo con 44 milioni). Il Presidente, invece, si elegge sul computo secco a suffragio universale diretto su scala nazionale (art. 77 Cost.). Nelle repubbliche presidenziali il voto disgiunto tra collegio locale e vertice federale è la prassi.
Prima di fabbricare teorie cospirative e gridare al golpe, basterebbe aprire i codici di legge e leggere i verbali ufficiali. Buona serata
Mathias Eick retweeted
I pulled the public orbital elements on all three satellites in the viral "SpaceX froze a NATO spy satellite so Russia could intercept it" brief and ran the numbers myself. The data shows two ordinary things happened. The explosive story welded onto them isn't supported, and in specific, checkable places it's flatly false.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED (public Space-Track elements, SGP4):
1) A Russian inspector satellite, COSMOS 2612, made a close co-orbital approach to the commercial radar satellite ICEYE-X36. It closed to tens of meters at ~0 m/s on 16-18 Oct, then withdrew. Same orbital plane (incl 97.85°), and it actively maneuvered to get there. This is a real, notable Russian proximity operation. It required ZERO SpaceX involvement, because Russia tracks and maneuvers with its own sensors.
2) A Starlink (STARLINK-35856) had a routine conjunction with ICEYE-X36, ~0.45 km on 16 Oct 23:54 UTC. Real, but ordinary. Starlink sits in a totally different plane (incl 70° vs 98°), so this was a ~15 km/s crossing that lasts seconds. Every object in LEO gets these constantly.
That's the whole factual content. Everything else is refuted by the data or isn't an orbital measurement at all.
WHAT THE DATA REFUTES:
❌ "Intercept / immobilized / kill." All three satellites are on orbit and intact right now (elements epoch 25-26 Oct). ICEYE-X36 is alive and tracked. Cosmos 2612 withdrew to ~490 km and is still drifting away. A close approach that ends in withdrawal is an inspection, not a kinetic intercept.
❌ "X36 dodged a Russian approach in June, so it had to be frozen this time." Neither half happened. Cosmos 2612 never came within 50 km of X36 until 16 Oct. In June they were thousands of km apart. And X36 shows no June maneuver: smooth drag decay, with weekly averages falling from 546.1 to 545.0 km and a largest single step of -433 m (noise). A real 0.5 km avoidance burn would be a clean -500 m step. There is none.
❌ "SpaceX pinned/froze X36 in place." X36 never maneuvers, period. Over 165 days it deviates from its natural decay curve by no more than 278 m and holds inclination to 0.022°. There was nothing to "pin." It's a passively decaying microsat. For contrast, Cosmos 2612 shows a 47.8 km altitude burn in a single day. That is what a real maneuver looks like in the data.
❌ "SpaceX inflated the danger 5x, claiming the real distance was 1.9-2.0 km." Independent public elements give ~0.45 km for the Starlink pass, consistent with the ~0.4 km figure cited, not 1.9-2.0 km. That "5x safer" claim needs SpaceX's private ephemerides that no one outside SpaceX can see, and the public data points the opposite way.
CREDIT WHERE DUE: the brief's raw archive numbers are real. The TLE update gaps and the conjunction time match my own pull. But multi-hour public TLE gaps are routine for every LEO object, and SpaceX having good space tracking is public knowledge used for collision avoidance. Neither is evidence of collusion.
WHAT ORBITAL DATA CAN'T SETTLE: "coordination" with Russia, collision-alert intent, Starlink throttling, the 23% figure, Iran, finances. Those are assertions, not measurements. The brief's "99.9% probability" is that inference restated as a number, and several of its load-bearing inputs (the June evasion, the 5x inflation, "X36 could maneuver") are false, so it's garbage in.
Orbital data can't prove a negative on intent. I can't prove no one coordinated. What I can show is that the data provides no evidence for it and contradicts the specific mechanisms claimed.
Bottom line: a real Russian satellite inspection, which was already public and known, plus a routine Starlink flyby. Two unrelated events, one narrative bolted on top.
All checks from public Space-Track two-line elements via SGP4. Happy to share the numbers.
SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
The Math Proves the Reality that Musk doesn't want you to see.
On Oct 13-14, SpaceX restricted Starshield/Starlink during a 39-missile Russian attack, cutting Ukrainian drone intercepts by 23% and stranding U.S. personnel in Kyiv. Forty-eight hours later (Oct 15), SpaceX blocked U.S.-licensed NRO, Space Force, and NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 in orbit so Russia's COSMOS 2612 weapon could intercept it (99.89%-99.98% posterior)
Our Model Demonstrates that the Russian intercept of the US/NATO ICEYE X-36 satellite (contemporaneous with the throttling of Starlink) would not have been possible, and almost certainly not been attempted, without SpaceX resources. At a material opportunity cost, Russia sprinted its COSMOS satellite to intercept ICEYE X36. Based on a previous attempt in June during which X36 maneuvered to evade COSMOS, Russia knew that this would be successful only if X36 could not maneuver. On October 15, SpaceX fixed X36 in place by issuing a collision alert for a sub-kilometer approach with its Starlink 35856 when SpaceX's own data shows that the actual distance was 4.8-5.0x as great. SpaceX issued no warning to COSMOS despite the fact that its sprint was far more threatening than the stable X36 orbit. SpaceX did not maneuver its Starlink 35856 satellite to clear the supposed collision risk. How, absent coordination with SpaceX, could Russia have known that SpaceX would take actions that (a) misrepresented the danger posed by X36, and (b) resulted in the fixing of X36 thereby enabling COSMOS's successful intercept? Thus, SpaceX was directly involved in simultaneously compromising Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities. The conjunction of these two events makes innocent explanations untenable.
The Pentagon Capture & Iran Round Two Trap: Pentagon CTO Emil Michael who cashed out $7M–$35M from Musk’s inner-circle SpaceX vehicles (M8/Gigafund 0.1 and M6/Valor M33 II) and KQ Partners / xAI (selling xAIfor $5M–$25M three days before taking over CDAO/OSCand 21 days before SpaceX bought xAI, while keeping M8, M6, M9, M10 & Nomadic open) and Pete Hegseth purged rival Anthropic in two hours, surrendered combat command over US drones used to attack Iran to Starlink’s "Terms of Service," and on October 2 named Musk Co-Director of Project Meridian to design the Pentagon's "Future of Warfighting" just as America enters Iran Round Twowith depleted Patriot/THAAD magazines and Russia feeding U.S. warship/aircraft locations to Tehran.
SpaceX’s actions in Ukraine raise serious questions about its alignment with US security interests and its reliability as a cornerstone of US defense. These questions are particularly troubling given the effectively irreplaceable position SpaceX has been granted by the Hegseth/Emil Michael Pentagon.
$SPCX $TSLA
Our full quantitative analysis below w/ @streetwiseprof
Mathias Eick retweeted
❗️Oleshky: Ceasefire Begins as Ukraine Fulfills Its Commitments
A ceasefire came into effect today at 3:00 a.m. Kyiv time (4:00 a.m. Moscow time) in designated areas related to the humanitarian mission.
☝️This is part of a humanitarian mission being carried out with the mediation and coordination of U.S. First Lady Melania Trump (@FLOTUS), in cooperation with Yana Lantratova, Russia’s Commissioner for Human Rights.
As head of the Ukrainian negotiating team, I confirm that the Ukrainian side is honoring its commitments. The agreements were reached during negotiations with Yana Lantratova, head of the Russian negotiating team.
‼️I will continue to keep the public informed of developments, with the safety of civilians in Oleshky and compliance with the agreed arrangements remaining our top priorities.
Mathias Eick retweeted
Another note for SpaceX attorneys and PR: There was no need to issue an alert at all. Your own internal data showed a safe 2km pass. But you issued a 400m collision alert anyway. Why? Because the alert itself is the weapon. Issuing it triggered FCC Cond 16, legally freezing ICEYE so it couldn't dodge. STARLINK-35856 didn't use its auto-evasion. It just parked there and kept the false alarm blaring while Russia sprinted in. It wasn't an accident.
SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
The Math Proves the Reality that Musk doesn't want you to see.
On Oct 13-14, SpaceX restricted Starshield/Starlink during a 39-missile Russian attack, cutting Ukrainian drone intercepts by 23% and stranding U.S. personnel in Kyiv. Forty-eight hours later (Oct 15), SpaceX blocked U.S.-licensed NRO, Space Force, and NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 in orbit so Russia's COSMOS 2612 weapon could intercept it (99.89%-99.98% posterior)
Our Model Demonstrates that the Russian intercept of the US/NATO ICEYE X-36 satellite (contemporaneous with the throttling of Starlink) would not have been possible, and almost certainly not been attempted, without SpaceX resources. At a material opportunity cost, Russia sprinted its COSMOS satellite to intercept ICEYE X36. Based on a previous attempt in June during which X36 maneuvered to evade COSMOS, Russia knew that this would be successful only if X36 could not maneuver. On October 15, SpaceX fixed X36 in place by issuing a collision alert for a sub-kilometer approach with its Starlink 35856 when SpaceX's own data shows that the actual distance was 4.8-5.0x as great. SpaceX issued no warning to COSMOS despite the fact that its sprint was far more threatening than the stable X36 orbit. SpaceX did not maneuver its Starlink 35856 satellite to clear the supposed collision risk. How, absent coordination with SpaceX, could Russia have known that SpaceX would take actions that (a) misrepresented the danger posed by X36, and (b) resulted in the fixing of X36 thereby enabling COSMOS's successful intercept? Thus, SpaceX was directly involved in simultaneously compromising Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities. The conjunction of these two events makes innocent explanations untenable.
The Pentagon Capture & Iran Round Two Trap: Pentagon CTO Emil Michael who cashed out $7M–$35M from Musk’s inner-circle SpaceX vehicles (M8/Gigafund 0.1 and M6/Valor M33 II) and KQ Partners / xAI (selling xAIfor $5M–$25M three days before taking over CDAO/OSCand 21 days before SpaceX bought xAI, while keeping M8, M6, M9, M10 & Nomadic open) and Pete Hegseth purged rival Anthropic in two hours, surrendered combat command over US drones used to attack Iran to Starlink’s "Terms of Service," and on October 2 named Musk Co-Director of Project Meridian to design the Pentagon's "Future of Warfighting" just as America enters Iran Round Twowith depleted Patriot/THAAD magazines and Russia feeding U.S. warship/aircraft locations to Tehran.
SpaceX’s actions in Ukraine raise serious questions about its alignment with US security interests and its reliability as a cornerstone of US defense. These questions are particularly troubling given the effectively irreplaceable position SpaceX has been granted by the Hegseth/Emil Michael Pentagon.
$SPCX $TSLA
Our full quantitative analysis below w/ @streetwiseprof
Mathias Eick retweeted
BREAKING: TRUMP BETRAYAL! Zelensky reveals he offered the U.S. THREE OPTIONS to halt Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries — but Trump accepted NONE.
President Volodymyr Zelensky just provided stark evidence of Donald Trump’s betrayal of America’s commitment to defend Ukraine from the Russian invasion of its sovereign territory.
Trump has been pressuring Zelensky to unilaterally stop taking out Russia’s oil refining infrastructure, but the Ukrainian leader said in an interview with the Kyiv Post that the United States has met none of the three conditions he says his country requires before agreeing to a stop to its successful campaign to cripple Russia’s revenue-generating energy businesses. Therefore, the strikes continue.
Here are the conditions that Zelensky said that Trump can choose from to convince Ukraine to impose a ban on blowing up Putin’s petroleum refineries:
Option one: an “energy truce,” where Russia stops hitting Ukraine’s power infrastructure. “That is fair,” Zelensky said, and it’s hard to argue with that. Expecting Ukraine to stop hitting Russia, while its opponent continues to bomb away, makes no sense at all.
Option two: enable Starlink coverage over Russia so Ukraine can show the U.S. where Russian ballistic missile launchers are and destroy them. Zelensky noted that Trump’s team has said Elon Musk doesn’t want to. Who the f@#k cares what Elon Musk wants? If Musk continues to be an obstacle, the U.S. should nationalize Starlink on security grounds and turn Ukraine’s spigot back on.
Option three: if Starlink is off the table, give Ukraine missiles for its Patriot systems, something that “doesn’t depend on Musk or Putin.” Given the fact that the American military has blown through a significant portion of its arsenal in the misbegotten Iran war, this last option might be the toughest for Trump to fulfill.
“Ukraine had received none of the three proposed forms of support,” he said. “That is why the reaction is what it is. We are fighting for our lives.”
Zelensky also argued the refinery strikes can’t move global prices much, since Russia accounts for only 2% of global diesel exports and the other 98% comes from elsewhere.
Zelensky smartly warned against lifting sanctions on Russia before negotiations, saying they were imposed in response to aggression, “not as a price for the mere opportunity to talk.” He said lifting them early would leave Ukraine without leverage and that rebuilding support for new sanctions after more than 20 packages would be hard, a warning that lands after Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia. “I do not want us to find ourselves without any leverage,” he said.
Meanwhile, the U.S. delegation went to St. Petersburg after talks in Oslo and then gave Kyiv a briefing. Now a broad meeting between Ukraine, the U.S., the EU and NATO is planned in Brussels this week. As long as Trump is in Vladimir Putin’s pocket, however, the prospect for successful negotiations is slim to none.
Of course, the Kyiv Post is only reporting Zelensky’s point of view. The White House has not responded yet to his comments. But one of his points is hard to dodge: Ukraine is being asked to hold back while the other side keeps firing. Only a fool like Donald Trump would expect any invaded country to agree to a deal like that.
Please like and share if you think Russia should end the war by withdrawing its forces from Ukrainian territories!
Oh dear....
Fox News is putting Nicki Minaj up telling people to vote red.
Let’s break that down.
Can Nicki Minaj vote? No.
She’s not a U.S. citizen.
Can Nicki Minaj’s husband vote? No, he’s a registered sex offender.
Can Nicki Minaj’s brother vote? No, he’s serving 25 years to life for child sexual assault.
She seems like the perfect spokesperson for MAGA republicans.
Oh dear...
SpaceX has effectively just lost the 🇮🇳 India market, which accounts for 20% of the world’s population, for good.
India represents a market 4.2 times the size of the 🇺🇸 United States.
To make matters worse, there is a growing resistance of allowing Starlink/Starshield services in many other parts of the world, where alternatives are already being developed like in 🇪🇺Europe or 🇨🇦 Canada to mention just two.
It is therefore likely that SpaceX will be unable to establish Starlink services across large parts of the globe. Worse, the same may hold true for SpaceX’s launch services and its data center offerings, whether on Earth or in orbit because its all about lost trust.
A significant volume of capital is now flowing toward other launch providers and start-ups, because what is at stake is national sovereignty, security, and the avoidance of dependence on the political views of a single individual: Elon Musk.
Elon Musk has failed to grasp that his actions regarding Starlink and Starshield in 🇺🇦 Ukraine have undermined global trust in all of SpaceX’s services and that will have a last impact on its business.
Once trust is lost, the business is lost as well. $SPCX
Mathias Eick retweeted
Matthias Warnig. Kennt ihr noch?
Genau, das war der Mann, der uns Nord Stream eingebrockt hat.
Jetzt erfahren wir: Er hat auch die Welt gerettet. ☝️
So jedenfalls erzählen es Warnig und zwei amerikanische Geschäftsfreunde der Financial Times.
2022 sollen sie gemeinsam verhindert haben, jetzt kommt's:
dass Putin sich mit der Atombombe das Leben nimmt und die Welt gleich mit reinzieht.
Danach hätten sie fast noch den Frieden in der Ukraine verhandelt. Das alles ist so absurd, dass man es nicht erfinden könnte. Und genau deshalb sollte man es kennen.
Alles begann am 4. Oktober 2022 in Zürich im Flughafen-Hilton: ein leerer Speisesaal, ein Tisch ganz hinten.
Der erste Retter: Matthias Warnig, Ex-Stasi-Offizier, später Chef der Nord Stream 2 AG. Putin nennt er „meinen Freund“.
Der zweite: Bob Foresman, Investmentbanker.
Warnig kennt er aus der Dresdner Bank, deren Moskauer Investmentsparte er Anfang der 2000er leitete. 2016 reichte er eine Einladung des Kremls an Trump weiter, beim Wirtschaftsforum in St. Petersburg zu sprechen.
Der dritte im Bunde ist Richard Conn, New Yorker Wirtschaftsanwalt. Mit 19 jobbte er auf einem sowjetischen Kreuzfahrtschiff, der KGB wollte ihn anwerben und prophezeite ihm, er könne eines Tages US-Präsident werden. Conn lehnte höflich ab. Am Morgen des Treffens singt er unter der Dusche „It's the End of the World as We Know It“.
Am Tisch erzählt Warnig den beiden Amerikanern von seiner Freundschaft mit Putin. Von der Invasion habe ihm sein Freund vorher nichts gesagt. Warnig ist gerade aus Moskau zurück und beschreibt Putin als einen Mann, den zwei Jahre Corona-Isolation schwer gezeichnet hätten. Conn fühlt sich an Hitlers Bunker erinnert und fürchtet, Putin könnte den Atomkrieg als eine Art Selbstmord betrachten.
Also soll Warnig Putin eine Botschaft überbringen, die nach Darstellung der drei aus dem Nationalen Sicherheitsrat der USA stammt: Washington wolle Russland nicht zerstören und Putin nicht stürzen. Warnig kommt mit Putins Antwort zurück. Er habe keine andere Wahl gehabt als den Krieg, sei aber sehr offen für Verhandlungen.
Bei einem späteren Treffen fragt Conn Warnig, ob die atomare Gefahr noch bestehe. Warnig: „Alles gut.“ Conn fährt nach Hause, im Radio läuft „Let It Snow“, und er ist nach eigenen Worten nie glücklicher gewesen.
Dann schreiben die drei einen Friedensplan. Russland behält die Krim, einen Landkorridor und Teile des Donbas, die Ukraine bekommt Schutz durch NATO-Staaten. In der Pause gehen schwimmen. Im Februar 2023 meldet Warnig, Putin habe das Papier Zeile für Zeile gelesen und sei im Grunde einverstanden.
Nur zwei Probleme gibt es.
Das erste heißt Ukraine. Selenskyj und Jermak bekommen das Papier über einen ukrainischen Filmproduzenten zugespielt, der lange in Russland gearbeitet hat und Selenskyj gut kennt.
Die beiden wollen sich die Dokumente kaum ansehen. Klar ist aber: keine Zugeständnisse bei den Grenzen.
Das zweite Problem heißt Washington. Putin lässt Juri Uschakow beim Sicherheitsberater Jake Sullivan nachfragen, ob die drei überhaupt ein Mandat haben. Laut Putin sagt Sullivan: nein, braucht es nicht. Damit ist die Rettung der Welt beendet.
Und jetzt wird es erst richtig interessant. Frühere US-Beamte sagen der FT, Uschakow habe den Kanal gegenüber Washington nie erwähnt. Wenn das stimmt, hat nicht Sullivan den Frieden versenkt. Dann hat der Kreml drei eifrige Amateure eine Weile spielen lassen und ihnen zum Schluss eine Ausrede mitgegeben.
Der zuständige Mann im Nationalen Sicherheitsrat, Eric Green, bringt es sinngemäß auf den Punkt: Wenn Putin wirklich einen Deal gewollt hätte, hätte er viele Wege gehabt. Über einen ehemaligen DDR-Spion und einen New Yorker Anwalt wäre der verkehrteste.
Und Warnig? Behauptet heute, er habe nie gesagt, dass Putin nuklear eskalieren könnte.
Bleibt eine Seifenoper ohne Happy End, in der sich die drei Helden die Stichworte selbst gegeben haben. Und ein Name, der hängen bleiben sollte: Uschakow. Derselbe Mann, der gestern im russischen Fernsehen bedauerte, dass Washington Kyjiw nicht einfach die Bedingungen diktieren kann.
Wetten, dass wir die Legende vom ausgeschlagenen Frieden bald wieder bei Wagenknecht und Co. hören? Dann wisst ihr, woher sie kommt. Und warum sie nicht stimmt.
Pedro hat sich die Geschichte vorgenommen und herrlich zerlegt.
Danke @mfphhh für diesen Thread! 🙏
Mathias Eick retweeted
Elon Musk has spent more money on American elections in the last two years than George Soros has in his entire life.
Oh dear...
Breaking news: Anthropic discloses $80 billion loss as the artificial intelligence company prepares to go public. wapo.st/4jCqBCR
Mathias Eick retweeted
Mendel's narrative that Ukraine has "rejected" easy peace deals or bears responsibility for the war’s continuation and destruction is disinformation. Here's why:
1. The Istanbul Talks (April 2022)
Claim:
Ukraine was offered a favorable deal in Istanbul to keep its territory (minus Crimea/Donbas) in exchange for neutrality and army reduction, but Zelenskyy unilaterally declined.
Rebuttal:
Demilitarization as a Trap: Russia’s Istanbul demand for a drastically reduced Ukrainian military (capping forces at levels that would leave Ukraine defenseless) was designed to make future invasion effortless. Accepting demilitarization without ironclad security guarantees was an invitation to total conquest down the road.
The Guarantee Catch: Russia demanded a veto over any future collective security response if Ukraine were attacked again. Under Moscow's terms, if Russia invaded a second time, Russia itself would have to agree before any external power could legally intervene to assist Ukraine.
Bucha and Russian War Crimes: The Istanbul talks collapsed primarily due to the discovery of mass atrocities in Bucha, Irpin, and Izium as Russian troops retreated from Kyiv. Russian war crimes demonstrated that "agreements" with Moscow meant surrendering Ukrainian citizens to occupation, torture, and mass graves.
No Real Russian Commitment: Russia never offered a binding, full withdrawal from Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, or Kharkiv during those early talks; Moscow was attempting to consolidate military control while stalling for time after its initial push on Kyiv failed.
2. Late 2022 & The Kherson Liberation
Claim:
After Russian forces withdrew from Kherson city, Ukraine refused a potential ceasefire brokered or suggested by the US to continue the war.
Rebuttal:
Operational Momentum: In late 2022, Ukraine had just scored major strategic victories in Kharkiv and Kherson. Accepting a premature ceasefire would have allowed a severely weakened, retreating Russian military time to entrench, dig extensive defensive lines (which they later did with the Surovikin Line), rearm, and forcibly draft hundreds of thousands of mobilized troops.
Freezing the Conflict Benefits the Aggressor: A ceasefire without Russian withdrawal simply converts temporary frontline positions into de facto borders. Ukraine’s experience from 2014 to 2022 (Minsk I & II) proved that a frozen conflict only gives Russia time to prepare its next offense.
US Policy Alignment: The claim that Zelenskyy single-handedly "persuaded" the US to force Ukraine to fight ignores the fundamental principle repeatedly articulated by international law and Western coalition strategy: "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine."
3. Early 2023 "Back-Channel Deal"
Claim:
A deal was on the table to return to pre-February 2022 borders in exchange for neutrality and recognizing Crimea as Russian, but Ukrainian leadership turned it down.
Rebuttal:
Unsubstantiated Fantasy: There is zero official evidence that Vladimir Putin ever agreed to abandon Russia's illegally annexed "four new regions" (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk), which Moscow formally incorporated into the Russian Constitution in September 2022.
Constitutional Reality in Moscow: Following Russia’s formal annexation decree in late 2022, Putin repeatedly insisted that the "new territorial realities" were non-negotiable. Reverting to pre-2022 lines was explicitly ruled out by the Kremlin's public and private declarations.
Rewarding Aggression: Surrendering Crimea formally would validate Russia's aggressive land grabs, violate international law regarding territorial integrity, and leave the Black Sea permanent security threat unaddressed.
4. The July 2024 Energy Ceasefire & Kursk
Claim:
Ukraine disrupted an energy ceasefire mediated via the Middle East by launching the Kursk operation.
Rebuttal:
Asymmetric Warfare and Strategic Initiative: The Kursk offensive was a tactical and strategic necessity designed to relieve pressure on the Eastern front in Donetsk, force Russia to reallocate troops to its own border, create a territorial bargaining chip, and demonstrate that Russia’s border was vulnerable.
Russian Destruction of Energy Grids: Russia began its systematic campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the fall of 2022—long before Kursk. Moscow’s attacks on civilian infrastructure were designed to freeze the civilian population into submission, not to negotiate a genuine energy truce in good faith.
Leverage for Peace: A state defending itself against an existential threat cannot rely on unratified, informal promises while its eastern territory is being taken day by day.
5. Blaming the Victim for Destruction and "Degradation"
Claim:
Because Ukraine did not accept Russia's terms, Ukrainian leadership is responsible for the destruction of the country, casualties, and degradation of the state.
Rebuttal:
Shifting Moral and Legal Guilt: Every dead Ukrainian, ruined power plant, and displaced refugee is the direct legal and moral responsibility of the aggressor - the Russian Federation - which launched an illegal, unprovoked full-scale war of conquest. Blaming Ukraine for defending its territory is classical victim-blaming.
Capitulation vs. Survival: Capitulation does not stop human suffering; it merely converts battlefield fighting into mass repression, occupation terror, forced Russification, conscription of Ukrainians into the Russian military, and the elimination of the Ukrainian nation-state.
Summary
The premise of Mendel's narrative rests on the false assumption that Vladimir Putin was acting as a rational actor offering genuine peace in good faith.
Throughout the conflict, Russia’s fundamental goal has remained unchanged: the total political control or subjugation of Ukraine. Ceasefire proposals offered by Moscow under terms of demilitarization and territorial concession are not paths to peace; they are operational pauses designed to secure Russian gains and set up the next phase of conquest. Defending sovereignty against an existential threat is not a choice made out of stubbornness - it is a necessity for survival.
Let’s go through the peace deals Zelenskyy rejected.
• Istanbul agreement, 2022
Ukraine needed to refuse NATO accession, reduce the army, Russia would withdraw from the Kyiv reg., possibly from the Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. At that point the scale of destruction was still limited and the number of dead was far lower. In April 2022 Zelenskyy declined the deal.
• End of 2022
Russian forces withdrew from part of the Kherson region. Zelenskyy traveled to meet Biden and, acc. to my sources, later confirmed by Mr. Blinken in the New York Times, persuaded the WH to continue the war. The precise terms of any proposed deal remain unknown, but sources indicate there was readiness to declare at least a ceasefire.
• Beginning of 2023
Through unofficial channels between the United States and Russia, an understanding took shape: Putin agreed to withdraw to the borders that existed before the full-scale invasion—freeing nearly everything conquered that year—in exchange for Ukraine’s refusal of NATO accession and recognition of Crimea as Russian. Zelenskyy and Yermak refused. Since then nearly a million people have been killed or wounded, several million have become refugees, parts of the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions have been occupied, more of Zaporizhzhia has been taken, Kherson lies in ruins, the Chernihiv and Sumy regions face constant shelling, Kyiv itself has become almost a front-line city, the energy system has been destroyed, businesses cannot operate, exports have stalled, and the country is degrading.
• July 2024
An arrangement that began with an energy ceasefire, modeled on the Istanbul understandings and mediated through the Middle East. While negotiations were under way, Zelenskyy also planned the Kursk operation, which ultimately disrupted all the arrangements.
• March 2025
After the Oval Office clash between Trump and Zelenskyy, European leaders gathered in London in early March. The British government stated that a number of options were on the table and that Ukraine had to choose. As always, nothing came of it.
Whether Putin was prepared each time to implement any agreements remains unknown, yet on several occasions he carried out what he had promised. Does this remove his responsibility for the deaths, the horrors, and the destruction in Ukraine? No.
But the country is degrading, the state apparatus is degrading, and corruption finishes what Putin’s missiles, drones, and bombs did not destroy. Inhumanity has effectively become a state strategy and a national ideology promoted at every turn.
Ukraine simply cannot win this way—there are neither economic, nor demographic, nor any other grounds for it. Therefore, if Zelenskyy does not agree to a deal with realistic terms now, Ukraine will be forced to capitulate. And that is deeply alarming, because it can actually cost the country its independence and sovereignty.
Mathias Eick retweeted
Russian skeleton and bobsleigh athlete has become part of the Russian army.
This is Kirill Gusev.
As recently as last season, he took part in all-Russian bobsleigh competitions.
Now he is a Russian serviceman. In one of the photos, he proudly shows a patch with the inscription “we destroying cities for money.” On his social media, he actively posts materials related to his affiliation with the terrorist army that is currently committing genocide against Ukrainians. It is this army that is responsible for the daily shelling of our cities and for the civilian casualties, including small children.
In a few days, an extraordinary congress of the International Bobsleigh and Skeleton Federation (IBSF) will take place, and at the initiative of the IBSF Executive Committee, the issue of returning Russian athletes to international competitions without restrictions will be considered.
They propose to remove the neutrality verification criteria, which included checks for affiliation with Russian military structures, support for the war, and other factors. This is being done deliberately so that Kirill and others like him, accomplices in Russia’s crimes, can freely participate in international competitions and use our sport to spread Russian propaganda, normalize the actions of their government, and strengthen Putin’s regime.
For us, it is obvious that the situation has not changed in any way since 2022, and Russian sport continues to be a powerful tool of the Russian propaganda machine.
Russian athletes must be suspended from international sport.
And it seems that the IBSF @IBSFsliding needs to be reminded of this.
Ban Russia.
Mathias Eick retweeted
🇧🇷 #Brazil's President Luiz Inacio #Lula da Silva won an unprecedented fourth term on Sunday, the country's electoral court said.
The shock result defied polls to put the brakes on a wave of right-wing election victories across #LatinAmerica.
Watch to learn more ⤵️
Oh dear...
SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
The Math Proves the Reality that Musk doesn't want you to see.
On Oct 13-14, SpaceX restricted Starshield/Starlink during a 39-missile Russian attack, cutting Ukrainian drone intercepts by 23% and stranding U.S. personnel in Kyiv. Forty-eight hours later (Oct 15), SpaceX blocked U.S.-licensed NRO, Space Force, and NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 in orbit so Russia's COSMOS 2612 weapon could intercept it (99.89%-99.98% posterior)
Our Model Demonstrates that the Russian intercept of the US/NATO ICEYE X-36 satellite (contemporaneous with the throttling of Starlink) would not have been possible, and almost certainly not been attempted, without SpaceX resources. At a material opportunity cost, Russia sprinted its COSMOS satellite to intercept ICEYE X36. Based on a previous attempt in June during which X36 maneuvered to evade COSMOS, Russia knew that this would be successful only if X36 could not maneuver. On October 15, SpaceX fixed X36 in place by issuing a collision alert for a sub-kilometer approach with its Starlink 35856 when SpaceX's own data shows that the actual distance was 4.8-5.0x as great. SpaceX issued no warning to COSMOS despite the fact that its sprint was far more threatening than the stable X36 orbit. SpaceX did not maneuver its Starlink 35856 satellite to clear the supposed collision risk. How, absent coordination with SpaceX, could Russia have known that SpaceX would take actions that (a) misrepresented the danger posed by X36, and (b) resulted in the fixing of X36 thereby enabling COSMOS's successful intercept? Thus, SpaceX was directly involved in simultaneously compromising Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities. The conjunction of these two events makes innocent explanations untenable.
The Pentagon Capture & Iran Round Two Trap: Pentagon CTO Emil Michael who cashed out $7M–$35M from Musk’s inner-circle SpaceX vehicles (M8/Gigafund 0.1 and M6/Valor M33 II) and KQ Partners / xAI (selling xAIfor $5M–$25M three days before taking over CDAO/OSCand 21 days before SpaceX bought xAI, while keeping M8, M6, M9, M10 & Nomadic open) and Pete Hegseth purged rival Anthropic in two hours, surrendered combat command over US drones used to attack Iran to Starlink’s "Terms of Service," and on October 2 named Musk Co-Director of Project Meridian to design the Pentagon's "Future of Warfighting" just as America enters Iran Round Twowith depleted Patriot/THAAD magazines and Russia feeding U.S. warship/aircraft locations to Tehran.
SpaceX’s actions in Ukraine raise serious questions about its alignment with US security interests and its reliability as a cornerstone of US defense. These questions are particularly troubling given the effectively irreplaceable position SpaceX has been granted by the Hegseth/Emil Michael Pentagon.
$SPCX $TSLA
Our full quantitative analysis below w/ @streetwiseprof
Mathias Eick retweeted
Wenn man viel Wert darauf legt, die „andere Seite“ zu hören, wie das Johannes Varwick vorgibt zu tun, sollte man auch zuhören.
1. Die Verhandlungen von Istanbul scheiterten an der fehlenden russischen Bereitschaft zu zentralen Zugeständnissen - insbesondere beim Territorium der Ukraine, Truppenabzug, „erlaubte“ Größe des ukrainischen Militärs und Sicherheitsgarantien für die Ukraine.
2. Im Herbst 2022 ließ Putin vier ukrainische Oblaste annektieren und erklärte sie verfassungsrechtlich zu russischem Territorium. Damit verunmöglichte er Friedenslösung grundsätzlich - zumal Russland diese Gebiete nicht einmal vollständig kontrollierte.
3. Der Kreml hat seitdem immer wieder deutlich gemacht, dass er an zentralen Kriegszielen festhält. Putin verlangte sogar als Voraussetzung für einen Waffenstillstand und Verhandlungen den ukrainischen Rückzug aus allen vier beanspruchten Gebieten sowie den Verzicht auf einen NATO-Beitritt. Die Ukraine sollte also auch Gebiete räumen, die Russland gar nicht erobert hatte.
4. Einen bedingungslosen Waffenstillstand mit dem Einfrieren der Frontlinie hat Moskau wiederholt abgelehnt. Stattdessen fordert der Kreml die Beseitigung der sogenannten „Grundursachen“ des Krieges – womit er seine weitreichenden territorialen und sicherheitspolitischen Forderungen meint.
Diese „Gelegenheiten für einen Verhandlungsfrieden“ hat es nie gegeben.
Mehr Kujat wagen: „Die Tragik der Ukraine besteht darin, dass sie immer wieder Gelegenheiten für einen Verhandlungsfrieden verstreichen ließ, zum Teil auch deshalb, weil ihr suggeriert wurde, sie könne die strategische Lage dank westlicher Unterstützung zu ihren Gunsten wenden.“
Danke @OvertonMagazin dass ihr solche Stimmen zu Wort kommen lasst und die klaffende Lücke füllt, die FAZ, ARD, ZDF und so beklagenswert aufreißen.
overton-magazin.de/top-story…
Mathias Eick retweeted
Einzig entscheidend ist der nachfolgende Satz aus dem Artikel von @berlinerzeitung: „[…] Putins Haltung ist nur über Warnigs Schilderung überliefert, eine unabhängig bestätigte Moskauer Position gibt es nicht, und der vollständige Text des vertraulichen Dokuments wurde nicht veröffentlicht.“
Witzig, dass über Vorgänge aus dem Jahr 2023 berichtet wird, als handelte es sich um kürzlich entdeckte geheime Depeschen aus dem Jahr 1813 (👀 @BecirovicMuamer).
Washington und Moskau verfügten 2023 nachweislich über direkte Kommunikationskanäle, über welche die „atomare Kommunikation“ im Herbst 2022 verlief (@FT berichtete). Wenn Putin tatsächlich zu derart weitreichenden Zugeständnissen bereit gewesen wäre, hätte er diese jederzeit auf offiziellem Wege unterbreiten können.
Stattdessen wird aus der Schilderung eines nachweislich langjährigen Putin-Vertrauten und jahrzehntelangen Stasi-Agenten ein angeblich ausgeschlagenes und inhaltlich geradezu absurdes Friedensangebot konstruiert.
Eine bemerkenswert dünne Grundlage für die Behauptung, @ZelenskyyUa habe eine historische Friedenschance verspielt. Besonders - um nicht zu sagen, einzig - interessant ist freilich der Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung.
Zufälle gibt‘s…
Laut Financial Times bot Putin Anfang 2023 einen weitgehenden Truppenabzug an. Selenskyj lehnte ab. Ein ukrainischer Abgeordneter liefert nun brisante Details. berliner-zeitung.de/article/…




































