I keep hearing all this nonsense about Travis County. You can give Travis, Harris, Dallas, and Bexar Counties each +150,000 additional margin in 2024 and Trump would have still won by over a million votes. If the red counties vote, which they’re doing, Texas is red. Look at a damn map.

People are always asking me about Republicans having a shot in California statewide elections. I always come back with simple math. There are roughly as many registered Rs in the state as there were a quarter century ago. Every four years, 100,000 or more registered Rs find a home in another state. You’re already down 3+ million votes. So now, you gotta find another 100,000 or more just to get back to the 3 million deficit - OR you have to convert 1.5mm people to switch sides to tie the race. The math doesn’t work, not in the short run. Now look at the Democrat problem in Texas. Texas grows by a million people every two years. So every midterm cycle they’re looking at probably at least 150,000 brand new (R) voters who moved there specifically because of political grievances with their former state. When they hear the war drums beating that Dems are going to ransack Texas, they immediately become the most “high prop” voters there are. 150,000 brand new R votes every 2 years is enough to cancel out and margin erosion in suburban counties and sponge up Travis/Dallas. Plain old chalkboard math is as valid in election analysis as anything else.