Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger) header
Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger) profile picture

Stock Trader | Head of Research @TradencyRS

Joined December 2023
Photo by Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger)Photo by Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger)Photo by Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger)Photo by Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger)Photo by Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger)Photo by Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger)Photo by Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger)Photo by Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger)Photo by Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger)Photo by Maximilian Hartinger (@MaxHartinger)
Not just my stock portfolio dropped this week. Slowly getting back on top of my tree-climbing game.
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After spending 10 min on the public feed, it’s absolutely mind-boggling how stupid and misleading the majority of the information is here. Everyone looking for news or information here gets totally filled with crappy information from people who have never done a proper unbiased analysis in their entire life. I honestly think that the recommendation algorithms of this platform are a key driver why people don’t make it in markets.
Replying to @gnoble79
If you compare things, you should make sure you are not just picking facts that prove your bias. Trailing PE of Cisco in 2000: ~200x Trailing PE of Nvidia in 2026: ~24x Price/Free Cash Flow of Cisco in 2000: ~176x Price/Free Cash Flow of Nvidia in 2026: ~37x Meanwhile: AT&T: Peak S&P 500 Weight: ~9.1% (Late 1970s / Early 1980s) No major top. General Motors (GM): Peak S&P 500 Weight: ~7.2% (Mid-1960s) No major top. IBM: Peak S&P 500 Weight: ~6.4%–7.0% (Mid-1980s) No major top.
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2026 has been a bear market over time. Many majors are sitting at the same prices they did 1–2 years ago, while building infrastructure and creating revenue in the meanwhile. Fundamental valuations have gone up while prices went down or sideways. It’s not a massive repricing like in 2020, 2022 or 2025 where we have seen 20% drops or more on indices, but rather a healthy shakeout over time. Yes, some sectors have seen massive destruction lately, which is why diversification is key. Massive upside potential comes not without massive downside potential, which is why stock picking requires some timing and risk management. We might go a bit lower from here, or we might not. Nobody knows, but what’s clear is that many blue-chip companies have reached discount territories.
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Free lunch. $TM Looking for TPs on fading momentum.
Replying to @MaxHartinger
Starting to scale today. Execution in $. $TOYM.NE
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Adding back those gains. $NVDA Reasoning should be clear.
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Acquired some $MU with the sweep of the 700$ low here. Fundamental numbers do not match current price levels. Small position.
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Adding to $SPCX to my 110$ DCA position here. Last buy order ready should it drop below 100$.
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Maximilian Hartinger retweeted
Same for $AMZN
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The midterm miracle aka political gridlock and the statistically likely bullish swing in the following quarters are just around the corner. If you are bearish stocks right now, you are not smarter than the market, you are just part of the majority. Sentiment is not entirely bearish, but it’s far from optimistic. H1 2027 will be the time to build cash, but right now it’s time to stay or get allocated.
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$GOOG at historical cheap levels.
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For those attempting to time the market: This is one of your signs.
The equity market is not in a speculative bubble, but in a structural phase of fundamental margin expansion that valuation multiples have yet to fully price in. While 2020–2021 exhibited classic bubble mechanics, stretched P/E multiples amid stagnant profitability, the current market structure demonstrates the exact opposite: S&P 500 forward profit margins have reached record highs above 17%, while the forward P/E ratio hovers just below 20x, sitting well below the historical trendline and testing the lower boundary of the standard deviation channel. Capital is consolidating along genuine operational earnings power rather than speculative multiple expansion. As long as margin resilience holds, current valuations represent structural fundamental justification, not an overheated regime.
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I assess positions on a multi-week to monthly horizon, not on headlines or intraweek volatility. The structural thesis remains unchanged. There is no reason to let action bias dictate execution. Conditions continue to form a constructive setup for Q4.
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If you love what you do, you don’t chase destructive shortcuts. Most people fail in the market simply because they cannot accept that outperformance is hard. It demands substantial time, discipline, but also a specific wiring: A fish will never learn to climb a tree. Whether in the markets, a relationship, or your craft, you need genuine alignment. Active trading was never a burden for me. It was demanding at times, but never soul-crushing. Once it stopped fulfilling me, I adjusted my strategy and moved on. The same applied to every job I did before: When it was time to pivot, I pivoted. This alignment is highly rewarding, occasionally in monetary terms, but primarily in direct fulfilment. When you are fulfilled by your work, you don’t need an escape. You stop chasing fairytales, shortcuts, and the false promise of a holy grail. Building anything of real substance takes time, far more than most care to admit. It requires relentless execution and the grit to push through friction. It is difficult, but purpose runs far deeper than a temporary spike of initial motivation. I have met mountain rescuers, firefighters, and craftsmen who execute gruelling work for modest pay simply because the work itself carries genuine weight to them. Life is not a deferred fantasy waiting for you once you "make it." It is the reality you are executing right now. If you don't like your job, pivot. If you don't like trading, build something with real utility. If you don't have enough time, eliminate passive consumption. Stop chasing the noise. Focus on the real craft and let the results follow.
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Training has begun. First major step toward real alignment with my life goals and ikigai. Go see the glaciers while they are still here.
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Sentiment aligns. Liquidity flows align. Seasonality aligns. This is why our cash position is currently capped at 10%.
Global equity returns are currently driven almost entirely by earnings growth, not multiple expansion. Unlike 2025, where multiple expansion drove a significant portion of global performance, 2026 YTD marks a structural shift. Severe multiple contraction is actively squeezing valuation froth, yet total returns remain positive as corporate earnings fully absorb the headwind. This confirms fundamental execution over speculative inflation. While retail engagement amplifies short-term volatility, market core pricing remains anchored to underlying cash flow. As long as earnings momentum persists, drawdowns represent structural accumulation opportunities, not systemic breakdown.
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Harmlessness is not morality: It is simply powerlessness. Europe serves as a case study in this misstep. By prioritising moral posturing and regulatory overreach over industrial competitiveness in almost every area, it actively erodes the engines driving its own wealth. While other global powers operate on ruthless economic pragmatism, Europe risks remaining a passive liquidity provider for foreign growth. Without economic leverage, high moral standards do not make you a leader, they make you an underwriter for everyone else.
I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel. Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority. This is a very big and important announcement. Additionally, it must be understood, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP ( TS: Oct 9 2026, 2:46 PM ET )​​​​​​​​‍‌​​‌​​‍‌​‌​‍‍‌​‌‍​‍​‍​​‌‌‌‌‍‍‍‍‌‌‌‍
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While certain arguments hold merit, much of the underlying logic is fundamentally flawed. Adverse events are an inevitability of market history, total risk elimination is an illusion. Furthermore, "too big to fail" does not guarantee immunity from collapse, it merely triggers systemic intervention, the ultimate success of which remains unproven. Aggressive market drawdowns are largely driven by forced liquidations among overleveraged participants, a structural dynamic no government intervention can prevent. For the vast majority, active trading is inefficient due to a poor time-to-return ratio. While its purpose is to outperform baseline market returns (~8%), few achieve this, making it a “waste of time” for most indeed. Sharp corrections do not signal a broken stock market or economy. They are simply the natural mechanics of every market and cant be avoided. Ultimately, this echoes classic "new paradigm" rhetoric.
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