I posted earlier tonight the polling industry would be on trial. I thought the verdict would be guilty. I was wrong. Same with prediction markets which were eerily prescient.
The line at Dixville Notch is out the door! Three drunks, two street preachers, a prostitute, a used car salesman, a bum, two stray dogs, three schoolteachers, and a barber! Turnout is off the charts!
(This is the first of many posts about turnout. It was written at 1:15 AM, EST.)
I was in Texas last week and took a poll. I asked a guy who had stopped me for directions who is going to win the Texas senate race. He said, "I hope it's the Democrat." The next day a guy in a cowboy hat stopped by out of the blue to chat with me. I asked him the same question. He said, "Paxton! I just voted for him." Here then are my result:
Talarico: 50%
Paxton: 50%
My methodology is explained above and it as good as anyone else's.
If Dems don’t take both the House and Senate polling is irreparably broken. My view from the crows nest: it’s irreparably broken. But Tuesday night will render the verdict.
I have a feeling the election is going to be much closer than Dems are expecting … or even worse than that. My theory is that they are so fired up to stick it to Trump they all voted early. I expect the Election Day vote to be 100% R.
A child at their first high school track meet asks, “How’s come those guys get a head start?” He points to the 400 m dash staggers. You explain, “They aren’t really ahead.” In an Am. election same thing. All polling is fake until the end.
The Brewers won last night because they played 1950s baseball: they bunted a man over to second who then scored on a ball up the middle. Billie Beane must be turning over in his grave.
Dear Canada,
I’m sorry but I just can’t deal with a nation that has two 50-yard lines in football. I thought you went metric, anyway.
Be consistent!
Signed,
A Loving Neighbor with just one 50-yard line
This Cubs/Padres series was won in the first inning of the first game on the first pitch to the first Padres batter, Fernando Tatis. He hits one just over the fence that PCA just misses making a great catch on. Really, it was over at that moment.
I see there’s a debate raging online over who’s better: Lowe’s, Home Depot, or Menards. I’ll settle it. Menards. Not even a contest.
AI is pushing post-modernism over the cliff. “The author is dead” Foucault told us. If that’s true, why doesn’t anybody want to read an AI novel or view an AI painting except as a curiosity? Vive Le Author, Le Painter. Thank you AI!