Paul Hunter retweeted
This is a remarkable figure (the whole thread is great if somewhat technical). What it illustrates brilliantly is why it is so difficult to bring down SARS-CoV-2 prevalence with reasonably non-invasive mitigations/restrictions.
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Replying to @adamjkucharski
It turns out this average level of infection is equal to: I* = (1-1/R0)/(1+d_immunity/d_inf), where R0 is the reproduction number if everyone were susceptible. If we assume people are infectious for about a week, we get the following picture: 5/
Paul Hunter retweeted
There has been a rise of cases of severe hepatitis in immunocompetent children. Several clusters have been identified in the UK, US and Israel. Some cases are very severe, and while I'm aware of no death yet, several children required liver transplants.
teapawt.net/apsmunro/status/151712…
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Important update to the @UKHSA assessment on unusual cases of severe hepatitis in young children
Now looks highly likely to be caused by Adenovirus which has been isolated in >75% of cases
Fortunately remains rare, investigations ongoing
gov.uk/government/news/incre…
Paul Hunter retweeted
Ivermectin: the largest randomized, double-blind trial yet conducted, with early treatment, indicates there is no difference compared with placebo. It doesn't work. Period.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NE…
just published @NEJM
Paul Hunter retweeted
UNICEF is the one international agency whose standing has increased during the pandemic in my views. They have been brave and unwavering in their advocacy for childrens' wellbeing and education from the beginning.
unicef.org/globalinsight/rep…
Paul Hunter retweeted
This paper has been doing the rounds, claiming that lockdown was useless (the source of the 0.2% effect of lockdown claim). Dozens of people have asked my opinion of it, so here we go:
In my opinion, it is a very weak review that doesn't really show much, if anything 1/n
Paul Hunter retweeted
Important preliminary data from SA looking at whether vaccine elicited antibodies are still effective against #Omicron.
Good & bad news: There is a big drop in neutralisation activity, but it's partial & hybrid (vax + infection) holds fairly well. 🧵
teapawt.net/mugecevik/status/14668…
Replying to @mugecevik
Based on genomic data, we'll likely see a big drop in neutralisation activity (likely more decline with natural immunity than with vaccines) in these studies. But decreased neutralising activity in vitro does not on its own predict that vaccines will be ineffective. (18/n)
Paul Hunter retweeted
Here’s total calculated RBD antibody binding to Omicron (w/o R346K) & #SARSCoV2 variants. Omicron has much less binding than other variants; is close to artificial spike polymutant PMS20 of @PaulBieniasz @theodora_nyc (9/n)
Paul Hunter retweeted
We’ve created calculator that aggregates deep mutational scanning data to estimate how mutations to #SARSCoV2 RBD affect recognition by human polyclonal antibodies. The calculator emphasizes extensive antigenic change in #Omicron variant. jbloomlab.github.io/RBD_esca… (1/n)
Paul Hunter retweeted
The Immensa lab scandal - which led to thousands more cases in the SW & Wales - is not over yet.
Another Immensa Lab in Loughborough might be just as bad & needs urgent investigation.
How many more are there??
great reporting by @samueljlovett
independent.co.uk/news/scien…
Paul Hunter retweeted
Replying to @james_e_b_
To me the toxicity stemmed from the combination of making covid a moral issue AND pretending it could be eliminated, in effect, blaming people for not being virtuous enough to achieve the unachievable ...
Paul Hunter retweeted
Replying to @Metadoc
The media are constantly at least a week out of date on Covid and have been for some time now. It's as if they're in a time warp and need a week or more to lay out the blocks on their letterpress.
teapawt.net/young1economist/status…
Replying to @andrew_lilico
That news organisations are, for reasons I *can't* explain, always now about a week (*sometimes*, as here, more) behind on Covid trends and news.
Paul Hunter retweeted
Important paper on deaths in children & young people (CYP) in 1st year of pandemic. Reassuring results for Covid:
- of 12 million CYP in England, 3105 died
- of these, 25 (<1%) were due to Covid
- 99.995% of CYP with positive test survived
However..
1/6
nature.com/articles/s41591-0…
Paul Hunter retweeted
Every day, there are 6 times more boosters administered globally than primary #COVID19 vaccine doses in low-income countries. This is a scandal that must stop now. bit.ly/3kxMALF #VaccinEquity
Paul Hunter retweeted
A vaccine effectiveness of 90 to 95% against infection after a 3d booster shot is pretty damn good! Would be enough to get R below 1 in fact. And even better: 99% effectiveness in protecting against severe disease after booster.
Replying to @jsm2334
Israeli MOH 11/9 data on current infection/serious infection rates split out by unvaccinated, boosted, & vax/not boosted.
We see boosted strongly protected vs. infection, and vaccinated/boosted show evidence of waning effectiveness, but still 50-70% VE_infection
(corrected typo)
Paul Hunter retweeted
There is understandable concern about the genomic evolution of SARSCoV2, and just the term 'mutation' can feel scary. Partly to alleviate such fears and more generally to provide an overview of the current situation, we wrote a review.
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sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Paul Hunter retweeted
There is increasing twitter chatter about a new SARS-CoV-2 lineage termed AY.4.2, a descendant of the Delta (B.1.167.2) variant. It carries two characteristic mutations in the spike, Y145H and A222V. It is likely to be elevated to the rank of 'Variant under Investigation'.
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Paul Hunter retweeted
If you're able to get a flu vaccine this autumn, get one.
But even if you do, still do all you can to avoid getting the flu - it could be really severe this year. @Metadoc explains why.
theconversation.com/covid-an…
Paul Hunter retweeted
High deprivation link to mortality but not case counts in #Norfolk #Covid Wave1 (but not Wave2 btw) analysis. Air quality, road network, population density didn't correlate. @SciencesNCL & @UEAResearch supported by @EPR_HPRU, @NorfolkCC with @Metadoc. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
Paul Hunter retweeted
The best data by far on #LongCovid is out from the ONS
For kids, the news is incredibly reassuring - parents minds should be put to rest
Rates of common symptoms after #COVID19 at 12 w for kids are extremely low (0% to 1.7%) compared to controls
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationa…
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