Most models continue to suggest that the remainder of October (including Halloween) is dry here in DC. European (shown) now suggests a strong cold front around November 2nd-3rd is our next shot. Next week looks dry and very nice once again!

Some of the more reliable mid-range models like the AIFS (below) suggest that we're not likely to see any rainfall here in DC for the remainder of the month. Various models show the next decent shot at rainfall around DC would be in the November 1-3rd time frame. So far, next week looks very similar to this one. ☀️🍂

Josephine is now post-tropical and heading away from the Northeast region. Canadian high pressure moves in as she exits, cooling us down over the next couple days, but keeping us sunny and dry. As things stand now, models leave our area pretty dry until around next Sunday.

Josephine has developed off the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic. "Subtropical" just because structurally, it's not a true tropical storm...but has enough tropical characteristics to it that it can get a name. The system will turn northeast and exit the region in the days ahead.

Historic El Niño still on pace ahead of the winter season. Latest daily number from the UK Met Office has the Niño 3.4 data at +3.3°C. It's been in record territory since July, and is nearly a full degree above where the super El Niño years of 2015 (+2.6°C) and 1997 (+2.6°C) were at this time. The Niño 1.2 region (which is the eastern ENSO zone closer to the South American coastline) is even more impressive. The daily number sits at +5.5°C which is off the chart. It sits nearly 2°C above where the next strongest...1997 (+3.9°C)...was at this time.

Any complaints?

Wave of low pressure is expected to "detach" from its associated cold front on Wednesday. It may interact with the Gulf Stream enough that it may become tropical in nature...perhaps a tropical depression or storm. Regardless, it is expected to move away from the East Coast.

Your least favorite day is coming soon...

Severe thunderstorm watch has been dropped early from the DC area, but still some gusty showers working their way across the area as we speak. Pockets of heavy rain and occasional lightning. Winds still gusting 30-40+ mph as the front comes through.

Quite the temperature swing expected between this afternoon and Sunday morning here in DC....from 80s to 30s!

Just within the last hour a nice line of heavier showers & storms has develop just west of DC. Expected to move across in the next hour or two. Even once it's through though, showers are expected to develop and linger into Saturday morning as the cold front gets hung up a bit.

Just a little warmer today...

AIFS with the never ending nor'easter next week in the coastal Mid-Atlantic😅 The loop is just about a week long...

Severe thunderstorm watch issued for the DC region until 8pm tonight. Latest HRRR guidance has a healthy line of storms around the I-95 corridor in the 6-8pm window tonight. ⛈️

NOAA’s winter forecast showing the storm track you want for big snow potential in the East this winter… …but will we get cold to link up with it? Or will mild temperatures (which they favor) keep storms mostly rain here? Our winter outlook is coming soon. But I think it’s very much a low floor, highs ceiling for snowfall this winter. That’s to say well either get a LOT from one or two storms…or not much at all. More soon…

Tomorrow...DC's average high temperature falls below 70°F where it will remain until April 19th, 2027. We're just two months away from seeing average highs drop into the 40s here in Washington! Sweater weather season is officially upon us.

Just a little cooler today...

A very different day coming up Thursday compared to the 90°F day today. We'll set our daily high temperature after midnight tonight...but then temps should fall right through tomorrow afternoon. Some early sun looks possible, but clouds & scattered showers likely later in the day

DC breaks a record that has stood for over a century, as DCA officially records 90°F for a high today. That is the latest 90°F on record...surpassing October 11th, 1919! Incredible!