Creator of Unpleasant Canadian Real Estate Content
Joined August 2023
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Latest video, on the revisions to Canada's population numbers, and the underlying reasons for them.
The only party to blame for the NDP's loss is the NDP. Even if all Green voters, plus everyone who voted CWP, CentreBC, CHP, Communist, Freedom, Libertarian, OneBC, Independent and Unaffiliated all voted NDP instead, the Conservatives still would have won a majority.
This news has completely overshadowed the deregistration of the Party of Citizens Who Have Decided to Think For Ourselves and Be Our Own Politicians
BC United (formerly the BC Liberal Party) is now deregistered.
elections.bc.ca/docs/fin/Reg…
#cdnpoli #bcpoli
Prediction for Alberta referendum seems to be panning out as expected. Counts are converging with projections for Q1-Q5, still some gap with Q6-Q9 dues to uncounted mail-in ballots for the later questions, but those results are basically locked in as well.
All four constitutional questions (Q6-Q9) have now flipped to "no", with Q1-Q5 staying "yes". I'm pretty sure these will be the final results.
Q9 in the Alberta referendum has now flipped and Q7 continues to narrow.
When NIMBYs accidentally give you a glimpse of the highly-desirable mixed use they're fighting against lol
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My projections remained pretty stable overnight. Q6 has flipped to "no" in the actual count, with everything else behaving more or less as expected. Q1 and Q2 have dropped below the projected values because mail-in ballots are mostly counted, with some election day ballots left.
Before the votes are tallied, I wanted to be clear about something that they're going to try and take from us.
The definition of victory.
If as much as 25% elect for option 2 on the only question that matters... this is not a win for "remain."
It's a victory for independence.
1/4 of the province (of which had doubled in size since this bs immigration scheme) is on board with cutting ties.
That's not 2 crazy dudes in Didsbury. That's every 4th person.
Maybe we won't get to further the process... but we will get to make our point clear: a huge chunk of us are so dissatisfied with the present status quo that we want to walk away from it all.
From this day forth, politicians will see that number on the page and know that it they don't find a way to bring those people into the discussion, they've lost them.
Don't let them redefine victory and marginalize our struggles.
But of course, I want option 2 to pass.
Based on the latest poll-level data in the AB referendum, here's what I think the final outcomes will be when the votes are counted.
Q1, Q3, Q5: Yes
Q2, Q4: Close, but leaning yes
Q6-Q9: No
UPDATE: This is an artifact of counting order, mostly for special ballots. When you exclude polling stations which are still reporting zero votes for one or more questions, it's basically flat.
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UPDATE: This is an artifact of counting order, mostly for special ballots. When you exclude polling stations which are still reporting zero votes for one or more questions, it's basically flat.
There's potential for all nine non-separation questions in the Alberta referendum to flip from their current results. Special ballots for those questions are showing as "reported" but with zero votes posted because they counted Q10 first, followed by the others in order.
Actually, this could be a counting artifact because the later questions are counted first. I'm crunching the poll-level data, and special ballots, which skew heavily "no" on the nine, are mostly not counted yet - many polls are showing "reported" but with zero votes.
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Waaaaay too early to be doing this kind of analysis in the aggregate. For the election day polls, you're going to see smaller/rural areas reporting first.
You could try pairing it by electoral division to see the difference in a given area without reporting time skew.
