Excited to reach 3,000 followers! Thanks to all of you for your support. ❤️ I've updated my pinned tweet to reflect my current trading process so that you can better understand my trade ideas. Let me know if you have any questions/comments! xitter.cf/MinervaCap/status/2055…

Anthropic S-1 sparks AI rebound October 26, 2026 U.S. stocks rebounded to start a heavy earnings and central-bank week. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,676.77, the Nasdaq gained 0.8% to 26,169.38, and the Dow added 0.3% to 52,361.58. The Russell 2000 was up about 0.4%. Breadth improved, VIX eased, and equal-weight participation was constructive. The 10-year finished near 4.99–5.00%. Oil cooled from last week’s highs (WTI settling near $101.70–102, Brent still elevated in the $110–116 area), providing some relief after Friday’s inflation scare. Anthropic S-1 Filing Re-Ignites the AI Trade Anthropic filed its S-1, planning a Nasdaq listing under $ANT as soon as the week of November 16. H1 2026 revenue hit $16.3B (up ~1,300% YoY), with Q2 showing an operating profit; the $80.7B net loss was driven mostly by non-cash convertible-note revaluations. Massive multi-year compute commitments ($114.5B Google/TPU, $110B Amazon, $44.9B+ Microsoft, heavy SpaceX GPU spend) were disclosed. Founders retain majority voting power via special shares. FinTwit immediately treated this as a pure narrative catalyst. The filing validated hyperscale demand and supply scarcity for silicon and infrastructure, lifting $NVDA (~+2.4%), $AVGO (~+2.7%), and $AMD (~+2.6–3%). Expert commentary framed it as both a liquidity event for the ecosystem and a test of whether revenue can catch spending before investor patience frays. The story itself (AI model companies going public at extreme multiples) is powering the sector independent of near-term free-cash-flow math. Brazil Election Repricing Crushes Local and ADRs Lula’s surprise runoff win (51.8% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.2%) reversed the post-first-round rally. The Ibovespa plunged ~14% (circuit breaker triggered), the real collapsed, and U.S.-listed names were crushed: $XP roughly –48%, $NU –17%, banks ($ITUB, $BBD) and $PBR down double digits. Nothing in operating fundamentals changed overnight; the move was a pure political-risk re-rating. Sustaining any bounce requires the new administration to avoid further fiscal deterioration. This is a classic catalyst-driven group move with limited fundamental offset. $TSLA Barclays Upgrade + SpaceX Narrative Barclays upgraded $TSLA to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its target to $450 from $370. The note cited improving auto growth, energy-storage demand (data-center related), Robotaxi inflection, and a potential SpaceX combination as upside with limited downside. Shares rose ~5–6% to the high-$390s. The merger angle is pure FinTwit narrative fuel; the operational points give it some fundamental grounding. Watch for any formal SpaceX/Tesla commentary. $META $95B Equity Raise for AI Meta launched ~$35B of underwritten offerings (Class A + convertible preferred) and outlined a later up-to-$60B at-the-market program once non-voting Class C shares trade (expected early 2027). $NVDA, $AMD, and $AVGO expressed interest in buying up to $5B combined of the Class A. The stock finished lower (~–1.5%) on dilution and free-cash-flow concerns despite the chipmaker vote of confidence. The raise underscores how even the largest cash generators are funding AI via equity, reinforcing the capex-intensity narrative that has weighed on the complex. Other Notes Analyst upgrades of note: $LMT (Morgan Stanley to Overweight, $835 PT) on F-35 production visibility; $ROST (UBS to Buy). Downgrades included $XYZ (Morgan Stanley) and several building-products names. Earnings were light today ($VZ beat modestly; $CDNS reported after the close). The real test is Wednesday ($MSFT, $GOOGL) and Thursday ($AMZN). Bonds and oil remain the macro backdrop. Stocks absorbed a ~5% 10-year and still-elevated crude; a hawkish Fed pause or renewed Middle East escalation would pressure rate-sensitive and consumer names. What Matters Next Watch whether the Anthropic-driven AI bid holds into $MSFT/$GOOGL/$AMZN prints and the Fed. Brazil ADRs are a pure sentiment trade until fiscal signals emerge. Oil and the 10-year remain the swing factors for breadth. NFA / DYOR. Markets move fast; this is informational commentary only, not investment advice.

Brazil Lula shock slams EM Monday opens with no single unifying thread—just a messy mix of an overnight Brazil election shock slamming EM assets, oil pulling back from six-month highs on de-escalation hopes (while Houthi/Saudi and Iran tensions linger), futures modestly green into a packed central-bank and mega-cap earnings week, and a handful of single-stock catalysts. Don’t force a thesis. Brazil: Lula Re-Election Shock Hits Markets ★ MOST ACTIONABLE · ▼ NEGATIVE · $EWZ $XP $NU $ITUB $PBR $VALE Lula da Silva defeated Flávio Bolsonaro ~52-48% in the runoff. Markets had priced a more market-friendly outcome and fiscal pivot; the surprise win sparked an immediate repricing. $EWZ (MSCI Brazil ETF) plunged ~20-26% in pre-market/after-hours, on pace for one of its worst single-day moves since inception. Brazilian ADRs crushed: $XP -45%+, $NU -23%, $ITUB -25%+, $STNE/$PAGS similarly heavy, $PBR -20% range, $VALE milder (~-5%). Financials and domestic-facing names led the bloodbath; exporters cushioned somewhat by a weaker real. European exposure also hit: Santander, Telefónica, and Mapfre under pressure on the open. Expert take: Analysts and desks expected a sharp correction (some flagged possible circuit-breaker risk on the local open). Goldman and others had sketched extreme scenarios of real weakness and higher local rates. The narrative on FinTwit is classic “socialist fiscal risk kills the bid”—investors had piled into the Bolsonaro/liberal agenda trade after the first round. Near-term, watch for forced selling, real depreciation, and whether any policy olive branches emerge. This is a classic EM political gap-risk event that can spill into broader risk appetite if it deepens. Macro / Oil / Central Banks Oil is the near-term relief valve. Brent and WTI pulled back ~1.5-2%+ overnight from Friday’s six-month highs (Brent ~$116.72, WTI ~$103) after weekend Houthi attacks on Saudi energy/airport targets and continued Hormuz tanker risks. Diplomatic mediation (Qatar, others heading to Tehran) plus Trump comments that a decision on deal-vs-strikes is near provided the pullback. Geopolitical risk premium remains elevated; any re-escalation (post-US midterms or Israeli politics) can reverse this quickly. US futures modestly green into the open (S&P ~+0.3%, Nasdaq ~+0.2%). This week is the real event: Fed expected to hold at 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday (after the September hike), with the debate shifting to December guidance and the tone from Chair Warsh. ECB and BoJ also on deck. Hot growth (PMIs, upcoming Q3 GDP) + sticky inflation keep a further hike live later. Light Monday data (Chicago/Dallas Fed). Earnings Week Setup The densest stretch of the season is still ahead. Monday is relatively quiet: $VZ before the open (consensus ~$1.27 EPS / ~$34.7-35B revenue; focus on postpaid adds, churn, FCF, and how they address SpaceX spectrum competition). After close: $CDNS, $NUE, $WELL and others. Big ones later: $MSFT and $GOOGL Wednesday, $AMZN/$INTC Thursday, $XOM/$CVX Friday. Options and positioning are elevated. The AI capex narrative remains the dominant overhang after $META’s print (raised 2026 capex to $135-145B, Q3 FCF negative, new Class C stock for funding). Bears continue to flag ROI timing and circular financing risks; bulls argue demand is still there but funding/cost of capital is the new constraint. Watch how the mega-caps address this. SGRY: M&A Bid ▲ POSITIVE · $SGRY Premarket surge (~+20%) on FT reports that Bon Secours Mercy Health is in late-stage talks for a majority stake, valuing the outpatient surgery platform at ~$6B (including debt), or roughly $20/share—a solid premium to recent levels. Bain is expected to roll its stake. Could be announced as soon as today. Classic catalyst trade on a take-private. Other Standalone Items $SPCX (SpaceX) continues to trade as the high-beta AI + connectivity story (strong recent print with AI revenue contribution, spectrum deal that previously hit $T/$VZ/$TMUS, and ongoing Tesla merger committee talk). $TSLA benefits from the optionality. Towers ($CCI/$SBAC) had already reacted positively earlier. Anthropic S-1: the public filing was reportedly planned for 9:00 a.m. ET today. Earlier reports on the draft described about $518B in compute commitments, including roughly $161B to Broadcom, $111B to Google and $110B to Amazon. They also showed $16.3B of first-half revenue and about 20% of revenue coming from the top two customers. That could move AVGO, GOOGL and AMZN. $META financing: META launched $35B in offerings: $22.5B of common stock through forward sales plus $12.5B of mandatory convertible preferred. A $60B at-the-market program would follow in Q1 2027. NVDA, AMD and AVGO have indicated interest in buying up to $5B of the stock, though none has committed. The stock fell $20 and then recovered to positive. $MRNA: the stock is still selling off after the Phase 3 melanoma vaccine results (with Merck). The vaccine cut recurrence risk by 42%, below the 49% from the Phase 2b study, and the stock had run more than 500% this year. One technical writeup puts support at 181.36, with 173.13 next and 209.59 as the trigger for a recovery. Moderna reports Q3 on November 6 Gold holding near the $4,000 area after a recent dip. Bottom line for swing traders: The Brazil gap is the highest-conviction short-term catalyst (volume + narrative). Oil pullback and modest futures give some risk-on breathing room into the open, but the real volatility arrives mid-week with the Fed and mega-cap prints. Size for drawdowns—especially around the AI capex debate and any geopolitical headline risk. NFA / DYOR.

📊 Trade ideas for tomorrow (not financial advice) $CRWD $SLB $RBRK $DVN $CHRD $PACS $SDRL $IOT $CGNT $EWZ $XP 📌 See pinned tweet for how I use my WL

Brazil 🇧🇷 $EWZ $EWZS sets up as a great short on failed bounces if the electoral court (TSE) officially calls the race for Lula. And here are the stocks that would hurt the most (opposite if Bolsonaro wins). NFA. $XP Let me know if you have any suggestions / feedback 💬 xitter.cf/liquidtrading/status/2…

Happy to close the day and week green with the help of these stocks - most are from the watchlists I share every day: $BUG $ECO $TALO $OSPN $AVPT $HAL Have a great weekend!

Several early warning signals are lining up, so I just wanted to share some notes. I'm always happy to hear where I might be wrong so please do share your thoughts. NFA

AI capex fears hit $META $TSLA Friday opens with a cautious, still-wobbly tape after Thursday’s sharp AI/tech sell-off. Nasdaq dropped 2.6% (worst day since early June), S&P 500 fell 1.2% (worst since July), while the Dow finished essentially flat. Futures are mixed-to-soft this morning as oil holds elevated levels near five-month highs and the AI spending debate continues. Rotation under the surface was real — many non-tech sectors held or rose as money sought relative safety and bonds rallied hard. AI Capex Fears Dominate: $META Negative FCF + Raised Spend, $TSLA Cuts Guidance $META beat on revenue ($64.6B, +26% YoY) and adjusted EPS, with solid Q4 guide, but shares fell ~7% as free cash flow turned negative (~-$2.1B) for the first time since going public. Full-year 2026 capex was raised at the low end to $135-145B, future AI-related contractual commitments jumped to ~$825B (from ~$700B), and the company announced a new non-voting Class C share class to help fund the buildout. Credit default swaps widened to records. The message: the AI investment boom remains aggressive, but cash generation is being sacrificed and financing tools are expanding. $TSLA reported better-than-feared free cash flow (positive ~$1.53B) after lighter-than-expected Q3 capex (~$4.7B vs higher street numbers), then quietly cut 2026 capex guidance to “in excess of $20B” from “more than $25B.” Shares still slipped as the cut raised questions about the pace of AI, robotics, Optimus, and compute investment. Longer-term commentary still points to rising spend into 2027-28. FinTwit/expert take: The hyperscaler/AI-owner narrative flipped from “they’re spending too much” to “they might not spend enough / the returns are delayed.” Several voices noted that every dollar of $META/$TSLA/$NVDA-adjacent capex is revenue for chips, memory, networking, power, and packaging. SOX still fell ~6.7%. The near-term trade is cautious on pure AI-spend beneficiaries until clearer ROI or sustained demand signals appear; longer-term suppliers can benefit from the same numbers that spooked the spenders. Memory and optical remain in focus given prior tight-supply narratives, though Thursday’s tape was indiscriminate. $SPCX Wireless Ambitions Hit Carriers, Help Towers Bloomberg reported SpaceX is seeking access to at least 80,000 U.S. cell sites as it moves toward a fourth nationwide wireless carrier. $CCI jumped ~7-10% premarket/after-hours (CEO had said “you can assume we’re talking to all parties” on the earnings call). $AMT also gained. $T, $VZ, and $TMUS sold off sharply (several percent each) on competition fears. $SPCX itself was mixed but stabilized relative to the broader tech hit. This is a multi-year story with real infrastructure spend potential for tower REITs and a clear competitive overhang for the Big 3 carriers. Oil Spikes on Middle East Escalation — Brent Near $114 Brent crude pushed above $114 (five-month high) after Houthi attacks on Saudi targets (including claims around Yanbu and other infrastructure) and reports of Aramco evacuating its Dhahran HQ. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risk keep a geopolitical premium embedded. Energy is a clear relative winner while the AI complex digests spending concerns. Higher oil also feeds into inflation and rate expectations. Macro / Fed Backdrop Bond yields dropped sharply Thursday (10-year had its biggest one-day decline in over a year, briefly back under 5%) as investors fled to safety. Rate-hike odds for the October 27-28 FOMC have faded (hold widely expected; December odds also eased somewhat). Softer AI/growth signals are being read as reducing the urgency for further tightening, even as oil stays elevated. Credit spreads have widened modestly. Next week’s Fed meeting and heavy AI/semiconductor earnings remain the key tests. Earnings & Standalone Items $AXP (BMO today): Beat on adjusted EPS (~$4.68 vs ~$4.47-4.50 consensus); revenue roughly in line (~$20.06B). Full-year EPS guidance raised. Shares modestly softer in early reaction — solid consumer spending print but not a blowout on volume. $SLB (BMO): Solid sequential growth — revenue $9.45B (+5% seq), adjusted EPS $0.64. Energy services continues to benefit from the higher oil backdrop and data-center-adjacent activity. $WDC (reported Thursday AMC): Strong beat (revenue +55% YoY to $4.38B, adj. EPS $4.64) and upbeat Q2 guide, with management citing multi-year visibility into top-customer storage demand. Shares still sold off in the broader AI tape and on cost/capex commentary — classic “good numbers, wrong tape.” Memory/storage remains a high-conviction AI infrastructure theme despite the near-term volatility. SK Hynix / Solidigm: Scrapped plans for a potential large U.S. IPO of the Solidigm NAND unit, citing market conditions, share-price trends, and domestic regulatory/shareholder concerns over dual-listing dilution. Korean shares initially pressured but the broader KOSPI stabilized; reduces one near-term supply/financing overhang narrative for the memory complex. Analyst Color & Premarket Notes Notable upgrades/downgrades circulating include BofA upgrades on $ALLE and $PHVS, and selective PT cuts elsewhere (e.g., on some consumer names). Premarket volume is dominated by small-cap noise; the cleaner large-cap signals are the tower REITs vs. carriers and the AI infrastructure digestion. Telecom and energy stand out as the clearest relative-strength pockets this morning. Most actionable near-term themes (days-to-weeks): ▲ Towers ($CCI, $AMT) on $SPCX infrastructure demand. ▲ Energy / oil-related on sustained geopolitical risk. ▼ Pure AI-spend hyperscalers and high-multiple neocloud/infra until clearer ROI or capex stabilization. Memory/storage ($MU, $SNDK, $WDC and Korean peers) remains a longer-duration AI bottleneck story but is not immune to the current de-risking. NFA / DYOR. This is a summary of publicly reported news and market color for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance.

📊 Trade ideas for tomorrow (not financial advice) $NSIT $VSTM $ELF $IRTC $ATRC $WIX 📌 See pinned tweet for how I use my WL