2/ Russia’s population and relative (but diminishing) wealth will let Putin continue his war for a long time, to be sure. But Ukraine is at least equally likely to hold off Russian attacks while raising the cost to Russia high enough to force a compromise peace—which is the stated aim of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian government. The latter outcome—a sustainable compromise peace—is also the stated aim of the US government and of Ukraine’s other supporters. It is only Putin who opposes compromise. The task of Ukraine and its partners is to continue to increase pressure on the Kremlin and raise the cost of pursuing Putin’s unbridled ambitions high enough to convince him to accept peace that he does not dictate. That task will be very challenging, but it is feasible, and it should be the focus of all policy aimed at ending this horrible war.

CONCLUSION 🧵(1/2): Putin would have the world, and especially the United States, believe that he is somehow holding back from crushing Ukraine, but that he could do so at any moment of his choosing. The opposite is the case. If Putin had had a way of ending the war quickly, he surely would have used it. The effort to field an army large enough to make virtually no gains is costing Putin a fortune, driving up inflation in Russia, and generating increasing social discontent. Fielding a larger army would cost more with no guarantee of materially changing the situation on the front. That is why Putin is holding back at least for now. ⬇️ Putin has likely recognized the folly of trying to drown Ukraine in Russian blood and has instead opted to try to hammer Ukraine into submission with a strategic bombing campaign. The Russians have secured a temporary advantage in the skies over Ukraine through their jet-powered drones and the shortage of Patriot missiles that can intercept their ballistic missiles. But Ukraine is fielding solutions to defend against the jet-powered drones, and it is hardening and decentralizing its infrastructure to survive the ballistic missile strikes (as well as developing its own ballistic missile interceptors, although that effort will take time). The Russian strikes are currently devastating Ukrainian energy and other infrastructure and imposing a brutal cost on Ukrainian civilians—as Putin intends. But there is no reason to think that this strategic bombing campaign will be any more successful than every other strategic bombing campaign in history—all of which have failed to compel a country holding its own on the battlefield to surrender.