A MAVERICK

Don't Assume 2027 Will Be Like 2023 Let me remind you of something about 2019. Buhari was going for his second term, and Tinubu was one of the major political figures working to ensure Buhari won. We all remember the controversy surrounding the bullion vans that arrived at Tinubu's residence shortly before the election. Tinubu acknowledged that the vans contained money but denied that it was meant for vote-buying. But think about the bigger picture. A man who was ready to deploy serious political resources to help another person defend the presidency — imagine what that same man will do when he is the one defending his own presidency. That is the point I want opposition parties to understand. 2023 is not 2027. In 2023, Tinubu was not the sitting president. He was a presidential candidate competing against other candidates who were also seeking the presidency. Today, Tinubu is the incumbent president. He has the APC Governors and some non-APC governors working for him. He has the City Boy Movement, Renewed Hope, Rainbow Coalition and Mummy's Men Movement (M3), all working for his re-election. And he now has a broader political base than he had going into the 2023 election. The difference is that Tinubu is now the incumbent president. He is the GCFR and Commander-in-Chief, with the powers and institutional advantages that come with being the sitting president, including control of the federal executive, security architecture and influence over the Central Bank. These were not advantages he had as a presidential candidate in 2023. So don't make the mistake of thinking that what happened in 2023 is automatically going to happen again. Tinubu knows Nigerians are hungry and angry. He knows this will not be an easy battle. That is why he is preparing. The opposition must prepare too. People may be willing to vote for you, but don't stop there. Make sure you win the election. Protect your votes. Put credible party agents at every polling unit. Mobilise voters. Build your grassroots structure. Educate your voters. Conduct whatever legitimate empowerment you can afford. Follow the results from the polling unit to the ward, local government and state levels. And understand this: If Tinubu wins, his supporters will tell you to go to court. If you win, your supporters will still tell Tinubu to go to court. My advice is simple: the money and resources you are going to spend challenging the outcome of the election in court after the election, better mobilise them now. Use them now to mobilise your voters, build grassroots structures, put credible party agents in polling units, educate your voters and conduct whatever legitimate empowerment you can afford. Do everything legitimately possible to ensure that you win the election on election day. Remember, since the return of democracy in 1999, no opposition has succeeded in overturning the declared outcome of a Nigerian presidential election through the courts. I don't see that changing in 2027. So don't build your strategy around losing first and going to court afterwards. Go and win the election first. Allow your opponents to go to court. Tinubu is planning to win. Opposition parties should plan harder, prepare better and do everything necessary to win too. Thank you for listening. —Copied from Chuzzy Onyenso