Joined July 2009
NetNet܂Governance retweeted
Is further downside ahead for markets? 😬 🥐 𝗟𝗜𝗩𝗘 ➡️ With stocks $SPX moving lower post-Nvidia $NVDA earnings, @jam_croissant joins @OJRenick to talk volatility $VIX and detail what he sees as potential risks to the market: xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1mrxmPXVq…
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
This is currently the 5th largest VXX spike in history! Up 25.76% 🚨 Things are getting VERY interesting...
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
Tech turnaround incoming? 🤔 This upcoming week has one of the highest win rates for $QQQ over the last two decades, green 74% of the time. 📊 trendspider.com
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
Trump Media $DJT stock plunging from $70 into the $20’s. xitter.cf/FunZone_x/status/17548…
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
I often tell my friends to consider playing poker with someone before going into business or a big partnership together. Playing poker reveals A LOT about your character. Here is what someone will discover playing poker with you 👇 𝟏. 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐥𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐲? With big 💰 is on the line, sometimes something goofy happens. A player, dealer, or someone not even in the hand, makes a mistake that influences who wins a large pot. Are you able to maintain composure & be objective in these high-stress scenarios? 𝟐. 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭, 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐛𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐤 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐟𝐚𝐯𝐨𝐫? Do you stick to your strategy or get fixated on short-term results? Do you get impatient & lose focus? When others get lucky against you, do you experience feelings of 😡anger, hatred, jealousy, or remain calm🧘? 𝟑. 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐯𝐮𝐥𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 "𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐤 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐲"? When you lose chips to a player, do you chase back the exact same chips or recognize that all chips at the table are equal in value? Do you adjust your strategy to get up a certain amount or back even, or just continue playing the optimal strategy? 𝟒. 𝐃𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐯𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝? In many cases, you are "getting odds" to call someone else's bet, even though your hand is less than 50% chance to win the pot. 𝐄𝐱𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞: $100 pot on the river & someone bets $50. You have to risk $50 to call the bet, and if you win the pot you'll win a total pot of $200 (The original $100 in the pot, plus both player's $50 river bet) $50/$200=25%. People often call, lose, and then say "I knew they had it, I shouldn't have called!" Instead of being content realizing that they would probably win this hand >25% of the time making it a long-term profitable call. 𝟓. 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭 𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐦𝐲'𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬? Regardless of industry, It's natural to have competitors. Sometimes your archenemy in-game has your number that day. All you can do is go with the flow, take the punches, minimize loss, & wait for your opponent to reveal a weakness that you can exploit. Many will get impatient, frustrated, or let their ego overcome them, and start to force suboptimal plays. 𝟔. 𝐃𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧-𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐬? Every day we make decisions with limited info. Will dating xxx work out? Should I take this job? Should I partner w/ xxx, should I go to this university? Poker teaches you to put together different pieces of info to make the best decision possible based on the limited information you currently have available. 𝟕. 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬-𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝? (Continuation from previous) When your decision based on limited info didn't work out and you took a job or dated someone that didn't work out.... do you make comments like "I knew I shouldn't have blah blah" and irrationally beat yourself up? Or do you stay objective & think long-term? The info you have now, you didn't have at the time of your decision. Something not working out does not mean it was an incorrect decision and if you continue making good decisions over and over again, enough things will work out in your favor to make those failures worth it. 𝐏𝐨𝐤𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐠𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞. It tests your ability to handle controversy, be patient, use logic, analyze risk, humble yourself to competition, & be process-orientated Try playing poker, It might just help you become the best version of yourself 📈🚀 If you enjoyed this read and want to learn more about poker strategy, mindset, and travel follow @FarazJaka And if you think this thread might resonate with your followers please share it!
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
Weakest $QQQ names for September $NVDA $WDAY $NFLX $MRNA $LCID $ADBE $AAPL
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
“.. .. we would be buyers of equities starting Wednesday, even if we are only in ‘close proximity’ to a low. .. since 2003, there are 7 instances $SPX down 2 weeks prior to #JacksonHole .. 6 of 7 instances, equities rose in the week post-JH ..” @fundstrat
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This $VIX decline has been astonishing. It is currently 16% below its 10ma. Today could mark the 10th day in a row that is closes more than 12% below its 10ma. Never been done before. Other times it did it 9 days in a row: 10/30/14, 11/21/16, 11/16/20, and yesterday.
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$NDX $QQQ The Nasdaq-100 just logged a 5-day Rate of Change of 10.2%, while below the 200-ma. Depending on what period you observe, forward returns are nasty. 2000-02 was so different than other periods though. Big difference in market regimes. Drawdowns are large under the 200.
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
.@Schwarzenegger has a message for the Russian people.
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$DISCA $T offering as much as $30b. Final amount & pricing will be a good tell of tone of cred mkts. That's even > important 4 stks,bc over last 30yrs, there hasn't been a stk collapse not led by cred.Cyclical bears don't need cred to happen; secular bears do $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
The longer far futures remain elevated relative to 2017, the more likely we are to have higher contango. $VIX
Further out $VIX futures have "relaxed" to match early 2020 levels when S&P was at all-time highs (ATH)--even though current S&P still 4.4% below ATH. Added 2017 & recent downturn peak day term structures for reference. Realized 21-day S&P vol in April 2017 was ~7% vs current 22%
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
A bad January leads to a bad year not because January is omniscient but because the economy is in or tipping into a recession. Annotations on the right are mine $spx
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Cash cred spreads ~ unch, while IG CDX +3.2bps (spec cred bears working hard). Odd reads in vol, w/ 3-mth $VIX curve unfazed by stk drop, while Implied Corr Idx up almost 4pts, though $FB $AMZN r prolly bulk of that. Net-net I think mkt still in wild gyrations mode $SPY $IWM $QQQ
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
$SPX up 4 days in a row. Up 5 days is a good sign of positive momentum (shading). The last time was 3 months ago (Nov 3). See prior tweet
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
The top 10 Worst and Best Januarys for the NASDAQ 100
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NetNet܂Governance retweeted
DJIA & NASDAQ up 78.3% of the Time on Feb’s 1st Day Last 23 Years February may be the weak link in the “Best Six Months,” but its first trading day has a solid, bullish bias. Over the past 23 years, S&P 500 has advanced 73.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.45%...
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Yesterday the $VIX was up for the 7th day in a row, happened 14 other times since 1990. A month later, $SPX was up 3.1% on avg, with an 86% win rate. Avg max drawdown was 1.8% during the following month. Events are below. Data from @MarketCharts
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