Dow Theory, Price, & Research Specialists. We're touching the financial & economic third rail, so you don't have to. 皆さんがそうしなくてもいいように、私たちは金融と経済の第三レールに触れています。
Joined January 2010
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How is it possible to exert yield curve "control" in the environment that we're living through but was outlined to perfection in 1984?
1985-2030 rate projection in red.
New Low Observer retweeted
Mark my words:
In a few weeks or months, they'll say Iran moved its nuclear materials before the attack, so Iran still has the capacity to produce a nuclear bomb, and we're back at square one.
The endless Iranian nuclear crisis!
"If industrial demand for silver falls off a cliff, that will be extremely bullish for silver."
In the last post-pandemic decline in industrial demand for silver, from 1919 to 1932, the price got obliterated.
If industrial demand for silver falls off a cliff, that will be extremely bullish for silver.
A collapse in industrial demand means a severe global recession. That means falling stocks, aggressive government spending and central-bank intervention. That means more currency debasement and a rush into precious metals. Investment demand will overwhelm the loss in industrial demand.
Things Benjamin Graham said:
"If we have now entered a new era that excludes old-time business depressions, it seems reasonable to deduce that we are also in a new era that precludes old fashioned bear markets."
We are in a new era.
Things Benjamin Graham said:
"...according to Wall Street, prosperity is just beginning now--and, after all, real improvement first shows itself here in Wall Street."
Cost comparisons:
1967 v. 1979
New York v. Tokyo
Seeing lots of these types of posts. And I agree, life is obviously much more expensive these days.
But I'm wondering if anyone has done a study comparing what people were buying week in and out in the 70's and 80's versus today?
I remember growing up, I got to buy 2 things of any value each year! My birthday and Christmas. That was it, and it wasn't a massive item either. Maybe got a little pocket money, but I had to work a high-school job to have anything. The TV was swapped out every 10 yrs. A holiday was a road trip. Clothes were looked after, some passed down. A restaurant was maybe once a month and a bagged lunch to school/work. And even with this, there wasn't much money left over. It was no picnic.
Today, families (including mine) seem to buy all sorts of shit daily. The money flows like water. Coffees daily, order in 2-4 times weekly, restaurants and cocktails, 5 streaming plans, phones for all, flat-screen every room, to lazy to mow own grass, uber everywhere, one car per adult, clothes swapped frequently, renovations often, international trips, etc etc
So when we talk about housing affordability, how much of this is choice/preference?
Ai nailed it.
"Iterative deletion refers to the game theory process of eliminating dominated strategies in successive rounds to predict rational players' equilibrium behavior, here humorously applied to the cartoon duel."
I knew, you knew, I knew...😆🤣
New Low Observer retweeted
The borrower has collateral until it is a total loss at which point the collateral holder is on the hook.
xitter.cf/kshaughnessy2/status/1…
“Hong Kong Property Losses Hit PE Funds After $17 Billion Rush”
“….From Gaw Capital Partners to Schroders Plc, investors are facing a dilemma: Sink more cash into struggling properties or forfeit them to lenders……
…That’s eroding the collateral value behind many bank loans, which could lead to margin calls, refinancing challenges and in more severe cases distressed asset disposals.
Blackstone is still paying the interest for its borrowing and has been in talks with Fubon bank, the people familiar said.
The lender, meanwhile, hadn’t marked down the loan as of the first week of October, one of the people said…”
New Low Observer retweeted
China using the Japan playbook.
They "...could dump money from airplanes. But sacks of cash don't fuel growth."
"China is re-liquifying its economy" - Michael Howell
Over the past year, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has injected ¥7 Trillion Yuan into money markets.
"They've got to DOUBLE that."
Full interview w/ @crossbordercap:
shorturl.at/cWbW4
New Low Observer retweeted
"U.S. liquidity is falling (this is a 'danger sign')"
Remember when global liquidity was at a peak in July 2020 and about to decline?
Dow (in red) is +50% higher.
xitter.cf/crossbordercap/status/…
OUT NOW - Michael Howell's warning:
- U.S. liquidity is falling (this is a "danger sign")
- China is injecting ¥Trillions & pumping gold
- "Next year won't be great for financial assets"
Apple🔊shorturl.at/mZwJ6
Spotify🔊shorturl.at/cWbW4
New Low Observer retweeted
"The top 0.1% nearly doubled their wealth from $12 trillion to $22 trillion. The bottom 50% gained just $2 trillion combined."
Fun with data.😆
The good news is that when @RayDalio is using the fear narrative, it means there will be overall prosperity that he will benefit from.
🇺🇸 RAY DALIO: U.S. ECONOMY IS 2 SEPARATE COUNTRIES NOW, AND ONE IS SCREWED
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says you can't look at the U.S. economy "as a whole" anymore because the gap between winners and losers is too extreme.
About 3 million people (1% of the population) in AI and tech are thriving, while the bottom 60% are struggling hard.
Dalio:
“If you’re looking at, let’s say, the AI world, and really what amounts to about three million people - 1% of the population - leading, and then the 5 or 10% around them, you have one world that the whole world is dependent on.
And then you have the bottom 60% of the population.
Consider this, 60% of the American population has below sixth-grade reading level.
That’s tough, and with that [they’re becoming] unproductive, and because of those things you have a dependency, an extreme dependency.”
The numbers back him up. 22 states are in recession while only 16 are growing. California and New York carry the entire economy on their backs.
Wealth inequality has exploded since 2020.
The top 0.1% nearly doubled their wealth from $12 trillion to $22 trillion. The bottom 50% gained just $2 trillion combined.
The economy now runs on spending from the rich. If they stop, everyone else is toast.
Source: Fortune
New Low Observer retweeted
Single income one job:
1946 $10,000 20Y 4.6%
1959 $17,000 20Y 6%
Dual incomes four jobs:
2046 $1,000,000 50Y 4.6%
2059 $1,700,000 50Y 6%
Would it be different this time?
Watch when bank issue 50Y mortgage
Until we achieve interstellar civilization earth is our only home planet
New Low Observer retweeted
Selling to Our Strategic Rival
"...most of the key technologies were obtained from abroad, at first largely through foreign 'concessions,' and then, following expropriation of these concessions..."
#Soviets #USSR #China
Thanks to @offshoretactics
New Low Observer retweeted
August 1930: Russia Dumping Manganese
"...the American Manganese Producers Association has accused Russia of dumping manganese ores in the U.S. in order to establish gold credits and destroy the local industry."
Thanks to @offshoretactics
New Low Observer retweeted
July 1985: Crackdown on Soviet High-Tech Smuggling
"...the efforts of the U.S. government to stop the smuggling of technology from the U.S. to Warsaw Pact nations. By stealing the western technology, the Soviets avoid huge research costs and long development time period."
New Low Observer retweeted
Spring 1989: America's High-Tech Decline
"The complacency that has led the United States into its current predicament is a luxury it can no longer afford."
Without implementing any of the recommendations, the US emerged a tech leader as Japan experienced a 20-year Depression.
New Low Observer retweeted
1890-1989:
The history of Financialization (using money to make money; no perceived tangible productive value) is so old that the current belief focuses on the symptoms which ultimately demand a gov't solution.
The consequence is bigger gov't and an even bigger national debt.
