Dow Theory, Price, & Research Specialists. We're touching the financial & economic third rail, so you don't have to. 皆さんがそうしなくてもいいように、私たちは金融と経済の第三レールに触れています。

Joined January 2010
New Low Observer retweeted
Mark my words: In a few weeks or months, they'll say Iran moved its nuclear materials before the attack, so Iran still has the capacity to produce a nuclear bomb, and we're back at square one. The endless Iranian nuclear crisis!
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New Low Observer retweeted
Inner sanctuary of Asakusa Kannon Temple, by Narazaki Eisho, 1932
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New Low Observer retweeted
2008 just isn't going to happen. Sorry doom squad.
The blue line keeps moderating
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New Low Observer retweeted
Gold and Silver continue lower and we remain bearish on both
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The borrower has collateral until it is a total loss at which point the collateral holder is on the hook. xitter.cf/kshaughnessy2/status/1…
“Hong Kong Property Losses Hit PE Funds After $17 Billion Rush” “….From Gaw Capital Partners to Schroders Plc, investors are facing a dilemma: Sink more cash into struggling properties or forfeit them to lenders…… …That’s eroding the collateral value behind many bank loans, which could lead to margin calls, refinancing challenges and in more severe cases distressed asset disposals. Blackstone is still paying the interest for its borrowing and has been in talks with Fubon bank, the people familiar said. The lender, meanwhile, hadn’t marked down the loan as of the first week of October, one of the people said…”
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China using the Japan playbook. They "...could dump money from airplanes. But sacks of cash don't fuel growth."
"China is re-liquifying its economy" - Michael Howell Over the past year, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has injected ¥7 Trillion Yuan into money markets. "They've got to DOUBLE that." Full interview w/ @crossbordercap: shorturl.at/cWbW4
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"U.S. liquidity is falling (this is a 'danger sign')" Remember when global liquidity was at a peak in July 2020 and about to decline? Dow (in red) is +50% higher. xitter.cf/crossbordercap/status/…
OUT NOW - Michael Howell's warning: - U.S. liquidity is falling (this is a "danger sign") - China is injecting ¥Trillions & pumping gold - "Next year won't be great for financial assets" Apple🔊shorturl.at/mZwJ6 Spotify🔊shorturl.at/cWbW4
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"The top 0.1% nearly doubled their wealth from $12 trillion to $22 trillion. The bottom 50% gained just $2 trillion combined." Fun with data.😆 The good news is that when @RayDalio is using the fear narrative, it means there will be overall prosperity that he will benefit from.
🇺🇸 RAY DALIO: U.S. ECONOMY IS 2 SEPARATE COUNTRIES NOW, AND ONE IS SCREWED Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says you can't look at the U.S. economy "as a whole" anymore because the gap between winners and losers is too extreme. About 3 million people (1% of the population) in AI and tech are thriving, while the bottom 60% are struggling hard. Dalio: “If you’re looking at, let’s say, the AI world, and really what amounts to about three million people - 1% of the population - leading, and then the 5 or 10% around them, you have one world that the whole world is dependent on. And then you have the bottom 60% of the population. Consider this, 60% of the American population has below sixth-grade reading level. That’s tough, and with that [they’re becoming] unproductive, and because of those things you have a dependency, an extreme dependency.” The numbers back him up. 22 states are in recession while only 16 are growing. California and New York carry the entire economy on their backs. Wealth inequality has exploded since 2020. The top 0.1% nearly doubled their wealth from $12 trillion to $22 trillion. The bottom 50% gained just $2 trillion combined. The economy now runs on spending from the rich. If they stop, everyone else is toast. Source: Fortune
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Single income one job: 1946 $10,000 20Y 4.6% 1959 $17,000 20Y 6% Dual incomes four jobs: 2046 $1,000,000 50Y 4.6% 2059 $1,700,000 50Y 6% Would it be different this time? Watch when bank issue 50Y mortgage Until we achieve interstellar civilization earth is our only home planet
1946 vs. 1959: New Home Price
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Selling to Our Strategic Rival "...most of the key technologies were obtained from abroad, at first largely through foreign 'concessions,' and then, following expropriation of these concessions..." #Soviets #USSR #China Thanks to @offshoretactics
Replying to @NewLowObserver
Show me any article from 1946-1986 showing that we were selling Corporate America to the USSR, our strategic rival. I’ll wait
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August 1930: Russia Dumping Manganese "...the American Manganese Producers Association has accused Russia of dumping manganese ores in the U.S. in order to establish gold credits and destroy the local industry." Thanks to @offshoretactics
Replying to @NewLowObserver
Show me any article from 1946-1986 showing that we were selling Corporate America to the USSR, our strategic rival. I’ll wait
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July 1985: Crackdown on Soviet High-Tech Smuggling "...the efforts of the U.S. government to stop the smuggling of technology from the U.S. to Warsaw Pact nations. By stealing the western technology, the Soviets avoid huge research costs and long development time period."
Replying to @NewLowObserver
Show me any article from 1946-1986 showing that we were selling Corporate America to the USSR, our strategic rival. I’ll wait
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Spring 1989: America's High-Tech Decline "The complacency that has led the United States into its current predicament is a luxury it can no longer afford." Without implementing any of the recommendations, the US emerged a tech leader as Japan experienced a 20-year Depression.
Wang starts to get at the edges of the core problem of America’s decline vis-à-vis China’s rise. As I outlined in April for Compact, the problem is America cannot compete in manufacturing without restructuring its economy away from financialized oligarchy.
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1890-1989: The history of Financialization (using money to make money; no perceived tangible productive value) is so old that the current belief focuses on the symptoms which ultimately demand a gov't solution. The consequence is bigger gov't and an even bigger national debt.
Replying to @NewLowObserver
The internet was birthed out of decades of government software and hardware intervention that bloomed in the 90s. We are now seeing the blooming of over-financialization and over-privatization.
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1960-1976: Sugar Prices...US, Russia, World Spot Even with the US subsidized market, the price reflected the world market. Get to know free markets and how they work.😉 Also, don't demand building oil refineries in a pandemic as a way to lower the price of gas and oil.
Why is gas in Saudi Arabia +300% above the 2020 low? They've got all the refining capacity.
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"Why central banks are quietly rebuilding the world’s oldest reserve system." Is there anyone out there trusting central bank actions/behavior? Just asking for a friend. 😆🤣
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October 2025: "The global bond market is witnessing history." - @KobeissiLetter December 2020: "Next stage in the cycle, up" -NLO The cycle...the global bond market is witnessing the cycle.
1790-2000: Wholesale Price Cycles The 1947 Dewey and Dakins book projected an interest rate peak in 1979 and a trough in 2006. Next stage in the cycle, up.
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"Oil markets are trading like we are in a recession." "While all of the focus has been on the Fed, oil markets have been flashing recessionary signals." or... Oil markets are trading like we're coming out of a pandemic.
Oil markets are trading like we are in a recession: Oil prices are down another -7% today and now down -20% over the last 6 months. Despite record high stock prices and a Fed calling for a "soft landing," oil markets are crashing. What are oil markets telling us? (a thread)
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The Canadian economy isn't broken and the comparison to the U.S. is mistaken. newlowobserver.com/2024/03/t…
🇨🇦 BREAKING: Canada’s economy. Let’s face it—rate cuts alone won’t solve the financial challenges we’re facing. Canada led the G7 with rate cuts, yet we’re falling behind fast. GDP-per-capita is dropping 2% annually. If we’d kept pace with the U.S., our economy would be +8.5% larger—that’s $6,200 more per Canadian. It’s time for real change. NOW. Thank you @MPelletierCIO for quoting me and spotlighting this issue in your @financialpost column!
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I recently turned 50. The day before my birthday we lost a TriVest team member, a colleague, a partner and a friend at the age of 52 to cancer. Live your life folks. Your time is the most valuable thing you own, and so be VERY aware of where and how you spend it. Please send your thoughts to the family, with love. And be grateful that you have time left to give.
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