No longer super active on Twitter, can't access DMs here; Catch me on Bluesky | Researcher on #Yemen

DC / Mid-Ohio Valley
Joined July 2017
Did this episode a few weeks back circa 3 December, but in light of the Israeli airstrikes on Yemen, Houthi missile attack on a Tel Aviv park, and the US friendly fire incident last week, a lot of what we talk about is unfortunately more relevant!
🚨 Episode 67 of @ME_InsightHub #Houthi missile strike on #TelAviv – Israel retaliates. What does this escalating conflict mean for #Redsea security and regional stability? 🔹 Featuring Nicholas Brumfield – @NickJBrumfield WATCH: youtu.be/ivAKWbu5bzg
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Former Yemeni President Abdu Rabu Mansur Hadi is dead at 80 I spent way too much of my 20s thinking about that man The only thing I recommend doing about it is read @almuslimi's iconic piece marking his 2022 ouster, with doubles nicely as an obituary sanaacenter.org/publications…
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Tehran keeps changing the goal posts. The narrative was previously that Iran is 'entitled' to take over the Strait of Hormuz as 'self-defence' (self-defence measures against the international community writ large for a war that the US/Israel began...); Now, it wants to impose a toll but claim it is 'a fee for services'... right...
Iran is couching its plans for Strait of Hormuz jointly with Oman not as a toll on all shipping but a fee for services, a fee that it says it is entitled to impose under UNCLOS. Aim is to seek buy in with the UN and International Maritime Organisation, and to show the fee is non-discriminatory.
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Even with the 700k b/d pipeline loss, still got 1.3 million capacity above the Yanbu bottleneck Similarly, depending on how much total capacity (I've seen 11-12 million bpd), KSA is big enough it can lose 600k bpd and still theoretically ramp up to its February 2026 10.5 bpd
🚨 Saudi Arabia confirms hits on "important energy facilities" in the Kingdom, including the critical East-West pipeline "leading to a loss of approx 700k b/d thru the pipeline." Also hits to the Manifa and Khurais production facilities resulted in a loss of 600k b/d. More 👇
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(Reuters) - Imposing a toll on ships sailing through the critical Strait of Hormuz would "set a dangerous precedent" and countries should not impede freedom of navigation, the UN's shipping agency said on Thursday. Iranian officials have raised the idea of charging a toll for using the Strait after a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Tehran was agreed this week. "There is no international agreement where tolls can be introduced for transiting international straits. Any such toll will set a dangerous precedent," a spokesperson with the UN's International Maritime Organization said. IMO countries adopted the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas, or UNCLOS, which outlines the rules that govern straits used for international navigation. "According to UNCLOS, ships enjoy the right of transit passage through international straits. States bordering straits shall not hamper that right or suspend the transit passage," the IMO spokesperson said.
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Again, it would be grimly funny if MBS said "eh, ok" to the toll or something to fuck over the rest of the Gulf states so Saudi Aramco can keep selling Arab Light crude out of Yanbu at a premium
It'd be grimly funny if MBS actually is urging the US to keep attacking, but only because he knows KSA's geography means it's less vulnerable to the kind of reputational risk from attacks than the UAE and wants Iran to keep spamming the UAE so Dubai companies will move to Riyadh
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A $1 per barrel toll for Hormuz would *not* be a "nominal fee" $2 million one-way for a 2 million barrel VLCC Annual insurance rates for average VLCC is $500,000 Closest analogy anybody can come up with is Turkey's fee, $5.83 per net ton, around $500,000 per tanker
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The attempt to justify obvious brigandage under the guise of resistance is appalling Intl. aw matters. I, as an American, have been able to oppose US-Israeli aggression on the basis of intl. law This is clearly self-serving bullshit in violation of international custom
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Omani Minister of Transport: We have signed all agreements related to maritime transport stipulating that no fees will be imposed for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. #OOTT
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Singapore is the world's second busiest port and our diplomats chaired the UN convention for the law of the sea, people expecting our country to do otherwise are deluded.
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The Hormuz is subject to UNCLOS's right to transit passage under international custom. Neither Iran nor the US have any right to unilaterally change this regime, even if they're not UNCLOS parties. This is not just about Hormuz. This is about Singapore, Malacca, and more.
COLUMN: No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change. But the waterway will never be as critical as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more bypass oil pipelines. @Opinion bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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Freedom from aggression (which the US and Israel violated) and freedom of the seas (which Iran plans on violating) are indispensible rights of all countries, especially small ones. I don't care if costs are politically acceptable, the world must forcefully protect both.
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I honestly think it's plausible he hadn't read the 10-points before tweeting it that's where we're at
Listen, it is indeed striking that Trump describes Iran's ten-point proposal as a "workable basis" for talks, but stipulating that at the start does not bind you to anything at the end If America walks in and says it wants to change "right to continued enrichment" to "zero enrichment", then we're right back where we were in February
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I really don't get this debate over "does Iran get leverage over the Hormuz" It *has* leverage. Any littoral state willing to shoot things at passing ships does. That's not going away, because geography. But also no one is ever going to legally recognize its right to do that.
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Honestly, if I was an enterprising and somewhat shady guy I would be looking to speculate in Karachi
Again, this is why confident assessments of the regime's post-war strength/resilience are premature. Surviving the war in such a way that you jeopardize your economic lifeline to Dubai, your main link to global markets and the financial system, is a Pyrrhic victory
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I suppose you could describe these as the Houthis' terms to Saudi Arabia to not join the Iran war and close the Bab al-Mandab
Part One: On the 11th anniversary of the US-backed, Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen, the Ansar Allah leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi delivered a long speech centered on the scale of damage and loss, setting the stage for demands around reparations and compensation. The speech framed the war as a story of resilience and national endurance. It presented the Yemeni position as rooted in faith, identity, and resistance, and rejected what was described as pressure to accept defeat. The message stressed that standing firm was not only a military stance, but a moral and cultural one tied to sovereignty. A large part of the speech focused on the human toll. More than 28,000 civilians were reported killed and over 17,000 injured. Deaths linked to blockade, disease, and malnutrition were estimated between 200,000 and 400,000. The destruction of infrastructure was detailed across sectors. Over 672 public service facilities were damaged, including health centers. Around 2,200 educational institutions were hit. More than 5,000 electricity networks were destroyed. Nearly 2,200 economic facilities and over 930 fuel stations were affected. The speech also pointed to damage to 18 ports, 19 airports, communication systems, and civilian aircraft. More than 11,000 food-related facilities were destroyed, along with over 19,400 agricultural sites. Additional figures highlighted the wider impact. Around 86 media institutions and administrative centers were destroyed. More than 48 major complexes, including hospitals, were hit. Over 8,000 roads were damaged. More than 1,840 schools and religious sites were affected, along with over 90 cemeteries. Around 2,200 government buildings and service facilities were destroyed. Further losses included more than 8,000 vehicles, over 420 historical and archaeological sites, and around 380 tourism facilities. The use of cluster munitions was reported in more than 2,200 strikes across different areas. The speech also addressed economic losses in detail. Yemen was said to have lost around 30 million barrels of oil annually due to halted production, including impacts on key ports such as Salif. The loss of oil revenues was estimated at over 27 billion dollars since the start of the war. These were described as national resources that could have supported salaries, services, and basic needs. It also accused the coalition of long-term damage that goes beyond the current war, including the disruption of development projects, destruction of infrastructure, and targeting of workers through detention and abuse. The argument presented was that these actions amount to a sustained effort to weaken Yemen’s economy and future prospects across generations. The speech further linked Saudi policy toward Yemen to a longer pattern of hostility, claiming that relations have remained negative despite past concessions. It framed current actions as part of a broader alignment with US and Israeli interests in the region, especially in relation to Yemen... to be continued:
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It ain't the gas that gets ya. It's the diesel.
While the price of gasoline has climbed ~$.80/gallon since March 1st, diesel prices are up ~$1.80/gallon.
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Thailand is so gas heavy that any supply shock becomes a national emergency.🇹🇭 +60% of electricity is from nat gas and LNG imports up 7x since 2014. Every 10% gas price spike = 3.5% electricity tariff hike. Spot LNG prices running ~2x last year's ave. Coal plants > blackouts.
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. bangkokpost.com/business/gen…
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It'd be grimly funny if MBS actually is urging the US to keep attacking, but only because he knows KSA's geography means it's less vulnerable to the kind of reputational risk from attacks than the UAE and wants Iran to keep spamming the UAE so Dubai companies will move to Riyadh
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