
No longer super active on Twitter, can't access DMs here; Catch me on Bluesky | Researcher on #Yemen
DC / Mid-Ohio Valley
Joined July 2017
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Did this episode a few weeks back circa 3 December, but in light of the Israeli airstrikes on Yemen, Houthi missile attack on a Tel Aviv park, and the US friendly fire incident last week, a lot of what we talk about is unfortunately more relevant!
🚨 Episode 67 of @ME_InsightHub
#Houthi missile strike on #TelAviv – Israel retaliates. What does this escalating conflict mean for #Redsea security and regional stability?
🔹 Featuring Nicholas Brumfield – @NickJBrumfield
WATCH: youtu.be/ivAKWbu5bzg
Former Yemeni President Abdu Rabu Mansur Hadi is dead at 80
I spent way too much of my 20s thinking about that man
The only thing I recommend doing about it is read @almuslimi's iconic piece marking his 2022 ouster, with doubles nicely as an obituary
sanaacenter.org/publications…
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social retweeted
Tehran keeps changing the goal posts.
The narrative was previously that Iran is 'entitled' to take over the Strait of Hormuz as 'self-defence'
(self-defence measures against the international community writ large for a war that the US/Israel began...);
Now, it wants to impose a toll but claim it is 'a fee for services'... right...
Even with the 700k b/d pipeline loss, still got 1.3 million capacity above the Yanbu bottleneck
Similarly, depending on how much total capacity (I've seen 11-12 million bpd), KSA is big enough it can lose 600k bpd and still theoretically ramp up to its February 2026 10.5 bpd
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social retweeted
(Reuters) - Imposing a toll on ships sailing through the critical Strait of Hormuz would "set a dangerous precedent" and countries should not impede freedom of navigation, the UN's shipping agency said on Thursday.
Iranian officials have raised the idea of charging a toll for using the Strait after a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Tehran was agreed this week.
"There is no international agreement where tolls can be introduced for transiting international straits. Any such toll will set a dangerous precedent," a spokesperson with the UN's International Maritime Organization said.
IMO countries adopted the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas, or UNCLOS, which outlines the rules that govern straits used for international navigation.
"According to UNCLOS, ships enjoy the right of transit passage through international straits. States bordering straits shall not hamper that right or suspend the transit passage," the IMO spokesperson said.
Again, it would be grimly funny if MBS said "eh, ok" to the toll or something to fuck over the rest of the Gulf states so Saudi Aramco can keep selling Arab Light crude out of Yanbu at a premium
A $1 per barrel toll for Hormuz would *not* be a "nominal fee"
$2 million one-way for a 2 million barrel VLCC
Annual insurance rates for average VLCC is $500,000
Closest analogy anybody can come up with is Turkey's fee, $5.83 per net ton, around $500,000 per tanker
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social retweeted
Omani Minister of Transport: We have signed all agreements related to maritime transport stipulating that no fees will be imposed for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. #OOTT
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social retweeted
Singapore is the world's second busiest port and our diplomats chaired the UN convention for the law of the sea, people expecting our country to do otherwise are deluded.
S’pore will not negotiate for safe passage through Strait of Hormuz as matter of principle: Vivian bit.ly/4vh3kti
The Hormuz is subject to UNCLOS's right to transit passage under international custom.
Neither Iran nor the US have any right to unilaterally change this regime, even if they're not UNCLOS parties.
This is not just about Hormuz. This is about Singapore, Malacca, and more.
COLUMN: No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change.
But the waterway will never be as critical as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more bypass oil pipelines.
@Opinion
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
I honestly think it's plausible he hadn't read the 10-points before tweeting it that's where we're at
Listen, it is indeed striking that Trump describes Iran's ten-point proposal as a "workable basis" for talks, but stipulating that at the start does not bind you to anything at the end
If America walks in and says it wants to change "right to continued enrichment" to "zero enrichment", then we're right back where we were in February
I really don't get this debate over "does Iran get leverage over the Hormuz"
It *has* leverage. Any littoral state willing to shoot things at passing ships does. That's not going away, because geography.
But also no one is ever going to legally recognize its right to do that.
Honestly, if I was an enterprising and somewhat shady guy I would be looking to speculate in Karachi
Will be interesting to see if the fact a Chinese state-owned company has the contract on Mubarak al-Kabir makes a difference to Beijing on this one
timeskuwait.com/mubarak-al-k…
I suppose you could describe these as the Houthis' terms to Saudi Arabia to not join the Iran war and close the Bab al-Mandab
Part One: On the 11th anniversary of the US-backed, Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen, the Ansar Allah leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi delivered a long speech centered on the scale of damage and loss, setting the stage for demands around reparations and compensation.
The speech framed the war as a story of resilience and national endurance. It presented the Yemeni position as rooted in faith, identity, and resistance, and rejected what was described as pressure to accept defeat. The message stressed that standing firm was not only a military stance, but a moral and cultural one tied to sovereignty.
A large part of the speech focused on the human toll. More than 28,000 civilians were reported killed and over 17,000 injured. Deaths linked to blockade, disease, and malnutrition were estimated between 200,000 and 400,000.
The destruction of infrastructure was detailed across sectors. Over 672 public service facilities were damaged, including health centers. Around 2,200 educational institutions were hit. More than 5,000 electricity networks were destroyed. Nearly 2,200 economic facilities and over 930 fuel stations were affected.
The speech also pointed to damage to 18 ports, 19 airports, communication systems, and civilian aircraft. More than 11,000 food-related facilities were destroyed, along with over 19,400 agricultural sites.
Additional figures highlighted the wider impact. Around 86 media institutions and administrative centers were destroyed. More than 48 major complexes, including hospitals, were hit. Over 8,000 roads were damaged. More than 1,840 schools and religious sites were affected, along with over 90 cemeteries. Around 2,200 government buildings and service facilities were destroyed.
Further losses included more than 8,000 vehicles, over 420 historical and archaeological sites, and around 380 tourism facilities. The use of cluster munitions was reported in more than 2,200 strikes across different areas.
The speech also addressed economic losses in detail. Yemen was said to have lost around 30 million barrels of oil annually due to halted production, including impacts on key ports such as Salif. The loss of oil revenues was estimated at over 27 billion dollars since the start of the war. These were described as national resources that could have supported salaries, services, and basic needs.
It also accused the coalition of long-term damage that goes beyond the current war, including the disruption of development projects, destruction of infrastructure, and targeting of workers through detention and abuse. The argument presented was that these actions amount to a sustained effort to weaken Yemen’s economy and future prospects across generations.
The speech further linked Saudi policy toward Yemen to a longer pattern of hostility, claiming that relations have remained negative despite past concessions. It framed current actions as part of a broader alignment with US and Israeli interests in the region, especially in relation to Yemen... to be continued:
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social retweeted
Thailand is so gas heavy that any supply shock becomes a national emergency.🇹🇭
+60% of electricity is from nat gas and LNG imports up 7x since 2014. Every 10% gas price spike = 3.5% electricity tariff hike.
Spot LNG prices running ~2x last year's ave.
Coal plants > blackouts.
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed.
The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices.
bangkokpost.com/business/gen…
It'd be grimly funny if MBS actually is urging the US to keep attacking, but only because he knows KSA's geography means it's less vulnerable to the kind of reputational risk from attacks than the UAE and wants Iran to keep spamming the UAE so Dubai companies will move to Riyadh
If this is indeed true, yet another instance where Abd al-Malik al-Houthi's insane paranoia and "no public stuff, no not even on holidays" stance pays off
bbc.com/news/live/cx2lr40g17…



















