@NoProb_XXX

High probability long & short trades through Line-up All Stars approach analysing: (i) fundamentals; (ii) technicals; (iii) liquidity; and (iv) sentiment.

Joined November 2020
  • Tweets1.2K
  • Following293
  • Followers3K
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Short closed 7377. Usual trading plan to follow :)
NoProb@NoProb_XXXMay 13
Finally, not a bad time for a short ES 7477
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Finally, not a bad time for a short ES 7477
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Not a bad time to sell :) ES 7037
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Best wishes for Happy 2024 to all !!!
W@woofwizard28 Jan 2024
Replying to @NoProb_XXX
Nice to hear from you and I’m happy to hear that things are better on your end. Wishing you the best in 2024!
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Stay healthy and take very good care of people you love, respect and those who helped and supported you in your life! 👊
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RRP declined by c.$600bn between beg. of May and now, resulting from massive T-Bill issuance & Fed pausing in June to ensure RRP rate stays below yields on bills. The Fed hiking today & indicating it’s not done yet will change the dynamics.
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Same on ES 4,495
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I keep selling rallies. My strategy hasn't changed. New data / information needed to change my views. NQ 15,350. Good time to sell now. Good luck!
Jorge Perez
@aaj747530 Jun 2023
Replying to @aree036 @NoProb_XXX
yep would be nice if he would be able to give an update. i know he had family problems unfortunately but lets see if we hear from him again.
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The best 'gurus' are great but keep learning & improving own skills! Only then one can make a distinction between good data/argument/advice & ‘noise’. Then perform own intellectually honest analysis and win consistently in a 'fair fight'! No easy substitutions for own skills! :)
NoProb@NoProb_XXX12 May 2023
Replying to @MadMaxEcon @TheArch01196450
I am afraid relying on a 'good set of excellent and seasoned advisors' without having any actual boxing skills may not get you too far in beating MT. But thanks for an honest answer! Am not a 'guru', simply an advocate of learning to ensure a level playing field & a fair fight.
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Opened NQ shorts 13,400. Will update when I close both ES and NQ. Looks like everyone who was following closely managed to learn something, so the mission accomplished for now :) And thanks for your kind remarks. Nice to receive so many!
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4,168 long hedge closed with 47 points profit. It may go slightly higher but good enough for me.
NoProb@NoProb_XXX10 May 2023
Replying to @NoProb_XXX
ES 4,120-4,121 now, not a bad time to hedge ahead of CPI
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Closing long hedge 4,160
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ES 4,120-4,121 now, not a bad time to hedge ahead of CPI
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To conclude Fed / FOMC theme just to highlight the discrepancy between Fed guidance (no rate cuts this year) and market pricing. cmegroup.com/markets/interes…
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Except this ‘middle ground pricing’, there is no other obvious way to price it. Is there? If things continue to be OK, then the market will reprice closer to the Fed’s case. But once it’s clearer we are heading into a recession, much deeper cuts will be priced by the market.
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All in line with the equities trading range logic. Anyone screaming extremes doesn’t understand some nuances or has a different agenda. Same goes for those ‘puzzled’ by the discrepancy between the Fed guidance and market pricing.
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What a fantastic example of how to mislead people from the correct thinking path. Thanks for sharing! The correct choice - 25bp HIKE & NO INDICATION OF A PAUSE – is not even on the menu and a regular person would not think in those terms.
Proctologist Peter - I like to pick bottoms@PeterNeumaier4 May 2023
Replying to @NoProb_XXX
I quite liked this one from Jpm
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On Catalonia: 2 choices: Catalonia as independent state 42.8%; Catalonia to remain part of Spain 50.5%. 4 choices: 32.9% Catalonia independent; 23.4% federation of Spain & Catalonia, 31.6% autonomous Catalonia; & only 6% Catalonia to be a region of Spain. Different pictures?
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The ‘correct’ Game Plan for FOMC day: - 25bp hike and no indication of a pause. S&P 500 down 0.5%·1%. Probability 75-80% - 25bp hike and a pause. S&P 500 up 0.5%·1%. Probability 20-24.9% - Other: Probability 0.1% What your choice would have been, if framed this way?
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