i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv
Joined August 2021
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My full conversation with @based16z
0:19 the Hyperliquid call
5:01 almost losing his $HYPE airdrop
8:27 life after life changing money
10:12 dating a billionaire's daughter
14:37 from online poker to Crypto
16:40 two trades made his year
20:56 the Snapchat trade
27:43 Sydney Sweeney $AEO trade
31:14 posters move markets
41:42 loot and rob
44:23 advice for a 20 year old
47:23 math lore
51:49 why he has no social media
threadguy retweeted
Don't even ask the question. The answer is no, it's not priced in. Think Democrats will sweep midterms? That's not been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Not priced in. You think insiders already know that? They don't. The market is an utterly clueless, all-encompassing being that doesn't even know what's happening right in front of it.
The market doesn't know the very inner workings of your subconscious. It doesn't even know what it's having for lunch tomorrow. Your very existence still hasn't been priced in, despite the market having over a century to value Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc.
Anything you can think of has not been priced in, especially the things you aren't thinking of. You have nothing but original thoughts. Your consciousness is the only thing standing between the market and complete ignorance. Free will is the only thing that exists. The market sees nothing, knows nothing, and will spend the entirety of its existence being surprised by things that were completely obvious in hindsight (the market hasn't even priced in the heat death of the universe).
So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that absolutely nothing has been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again.
threadguy retweeted
Domahh says AOC will be the Democratic nominee in 2028
"One bet I really like that relates to tonight is I have a bunch of shares of James Talarico to be the Democratic nominee. I don't necessarily think it'll happen, but if he wins tonight and wins pretty big, he's going to be a superstar immediately and all these Democrats are going to have hard eyes for this guy. I bought it for like a penny or a penny and a half, almost 100 to 1 odds, and maybe it goes to 5 or 6 cents tonight and that's a sell point."
"But overall who I really like in 2028, and who I actually think is going to be the nominee, is AOC, because she's going to suck up all the oxygen. It's a little bit like Trump on the Republican side. It wasn't that he was popular, it's that everyone paid attention to him. Whenever he talked the cameras followed him, so it was so hard for anyone else to gain traction. I could see that type of environment where everyone is struggling to get attention and AOC is just getting all of it."
threadguy retweeted
Mert explains why cyberattacks often go unnoticed by everyday users while engineers spend all day defending against them
“When it comes to things that aren't crypto, it's very hard to actually steal money.”
“It's a lot of data mining. Like people are just stealing data and then that data gets sold on the dark web to other hackers, which then use that to target you.”
“The pain is not direct when it comes to non-crypto things.”
“With crypto, it's different, obviously, because the money is just there and it's generally speaking, not reversible.”
“The Googles and Apples of the world are under what I assume are insane attacks. But they have teams within teams within teams helping stop these things.”
“We're just spending all day every day just upgrading these systems and defending. And that's just very much more painful for the engineer than it is for the average user.”
threadguy retweeted
Domahhh says a Democratic sweep tomorrow could hit Trump with an Avengers Endgame snap that freezes the entire government.
"I have a huge bet on Tallarico, the Texas Senate, and House control. I am betting on Democrats to win both the House and the Senate."
"This reminds me of 2006, where an unpopular Republican incumbent led to depressed Republican turnout and highly enthusiastic Democrats. If this blue wave hits, there is going to be an immediate sea change. It is a little bit like Avengers Endgame where he snaps his fingers."
"In the immediate term, Trump will be very pissed off, people will be fired, and he will look for people to blame. Long term, I expect endless investigations to grind everything to a standstill, leaving the ultimate lame duck where it is very hard to pass anything."
threadguy retweeted
Domer tells Threadguy how he made $1,400,000 on Kevin Warsh prediction market by fading false favorites
"You have one of the most insane trades I've ever seen with the Kevin Warsh? Oh yeah Kevin Warsh to become a Fed Chair earlier this year? one of the craziest trade"
"How were you able to nail that? The thing about prediction market traders is that it's very hard to ask them about trades that take place more than a month ago...Kevin Hassett was the huge favor at one point"
"There were all of these false favorites and that's another area where it's like I really like these type of markets"
threadguy retweeted
Threadguy says pray to the Lord that you never have to eat vintage MREs and God bless the troops who do
“Ladies and gentlemen, eating vintage MREs with yours truly. Nobody wants this shit as bad as me. You can never convince me that they do.
Be grateful. Pray to the Lord that you don't ever have to eat these. What are these things? God bless our troops that do, because holy fuck, they are not good.”
threadguy retweeted
Domahh reveals crypto could be the main focus if Democrats try to impeach Trump
"I think the best way to go after Trump would be on the crypto stuff, like the World Liberty Financial stuff. That could end up being the main focus of an impeachment"
"So then crypto is kinda involved in a potential impeachment and that would be wild"
it’s not discussed enough how underwhelming the top “fintwit” traders are. four years of infinite charts up only. no pnl posting, no iconic trades. just pure crashouts, doom posting and misery (s&p -2% off ath btw).
crypto somehow still clears
Well
Initially planned to buy back a smaller position. But there's only so much $ you can put on the SP500/gold for your retirement before it becomes marginally irrelevant
How do you allocate when you already have everything?
You just push forward with your best idea.
And my best idea is still $ZEC. By a wide margin. Honestly, I struggle to comprehend how the whole market is not reaching the same conclusion yet. And this is where the alpha lies i guess
People have been conditioned for a decade to believe that "you don't compete with Bitcoin". You leave Bitcoin alone, as a special snowflake, and you build other "blockchain" things aside (Defi, L1s, NFTs, launchpads, RWAs, Perps...). And rightfully so. Everyone who tried by the past got burnt hard. You only need 1 digital SoV. One chair if you will
What if this time is different? The leap of faith going from analog SoVs like Gold to Bitcoin was a phenomenal tour de force. What would it take to leap from $BTC to $ZEC? Lindy wise, what is a 7 year difference in the grand scheme of things? Is ossification still a moat in the age of AI and quantum? Isn't privacy worth a shot in a world of govs overreach?
Do you think you'll have many more chances at buying the next Bitcoin in the future? And if you discount everything I said by 90%, isn't 10% of Bitcoin's value a target worth betting on?
It's time to dream again
(chart attached for tactical management)
LGW
lgw? shows up with a 30m twap? solanadoomer? like what? 20m pnl this year
flood and soska probably two of the best traders in the world rn? ct has legit randoms with 8 figs slamming buys on their phone consistently wicking down 50%
survivorship whatever yada yada fintwit is so weak
