i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Joined August 2021
- Tweets172K
- Following16.4K
- Followers416K
- Likes263K
threadguy retweeted
flood and soska. undeniably world class
flood/soska best traders of this cycle and its not particularly close
>hype since tge with max size + clear thesis
>shorted memory top
>longed btc bottom ~62k
>called for recent equities/semis sell off
the point of an X account posting trades isn’t to deliver you exact entries & exits or have 100% hitrate
it’s simply to introduce you to potentially life changing trade ideas
who cares about their shitposts or upbringing or personality
are they posting genuine alpha or not? it’s so rare that the idea that randoms are dunking on the dude is wild
threadguy retweeted
Threadguy thinks 15 minutes on his Instagram Reels could break Alexander the Great
“You need to be mentally ill to use social media for more than 15 minutes. The only way you survive it is if you’re actually good at navigating it. Imagine handing an uncontacted tribe your FYP for 20 minutes with a Red Bull and some Skittles, it would just destroy them.”
“I think you could break Alexander the Great with 15 minutes on my IG Reels. Hand the conqueror of the world a McRib and 15 minutes on my Instagram Reels and I think he would just break. Conquered the world at 16, and he would sit down and break, straight up.”
threadguy retweeted
why trade against druckenmiller when i can trade against shitcoiners
Surveillor on why he mostly avoids trading the majors: low-liquidity markets have less-skilled competitors
"My whole view on markets is you should typically stay in the lowest-liquidity market that can accommodate your size, because that's where the median participant is least skilled."
"I started with memecoins, and I'd recommend anyone who wants to get into trading with lower amounts of size start off with memecoins, because it's the easiest. And then you move to altcoins."
"When you think about markets, obviously all the big sharks are in the bigger markets. So even now, in most cases I avoid majors and just focus on altcoins, until I get to a size where I'm forced to trade majors."
threadguy retweeted
our full interview with @surveillor
1:22 trade the smallest market you can
3:29 why alts can still 5x
5:13 ignoring AI and quantum FUD
6:21 25% of his port in $CARDS
7:51 zero leverage, 25% max drawdown
9:43 buying the $LIT bottom
12:57 being contrarian is reta*ded
14:16 6 months holding CARDS
24:03 the PUMP and LIT bullcase
29:33 $2.5K Pikachu now worth $150K
threadguy retweeted
Surveillor explains why he never uses leverage and what he does when he hits his max drawdown
“I never use leverage. I just don't feel like you need it with altcoins, since they can easily move 10% plus a day.
I have a strict max drawdown to prevent any crazy losses, around 20 to 25%. I don't remember the last time I hit it, but probably sometime last year. When it happens, I zero out everything in my portfolio.
After that, I would probably just log off for a month and work on trading tooling”
threadguy retweeted
hard agree -- simply, few people are more tapped in to this market than @notthreadguy & the @counterpartytv team
threadguy retweeted
The Bitcoin security hysteria is hilarious. There is no technology on earth more battle tested than BTC. It has had a giant target on its back since day one because it holds actual money that can be stolen with no accountability. Every hacker on the planet has tried for 16 years. Nobody has cracked the protocol. Meanwhile, hacking everything else is getting cheaper and easier by the day. Your money is at far greater risk sitting in a bank or brokerage account. Someone wires it out and the bank says you authorized it. Now prove you didn’t. Good luck with that…🚀
threadguy retweeted
Crypto grew up in the Dark Forest, and the entire world is about to find itself there
threadguy retweeted
this is an amazing episode
thread really is a phenomenal host
Why you shouldn't panic about AI hacks: my full interview with cybersecurity expert @tayvano_
0:37 how bad is the PHP bug?
2:33 PHP is 70% of the internet
6:59 a private key that was just "4"
9:04 crypto is safer than the internet
15:30 never panic, diversify
17:04 how Cloudflare saved the internet
18:49 Railway hack drained wallets
21:07 Monero & Zcash are most hardened
22:35 Bitcoin's real risk is its culture
27:02 hardware 2FA on everything
threadguy retweeted
flood/soska best traders of this cycle and its not particularly close
>hype since tge with max size + clear thesis
>shorted memory top
>longed btc bottom ~62k
>called for recent equities/semis sell off
the point of an X account posting trades isn’t to deliver you exact entries & exits or have 100% hitrate
it’s simply to introduce you to potentially life changing trade ideas
who cares about their shitposts or upbringing or personality
are they posting genuine alpha or not? it’s so rare that the idea that randoms are dunking on the dude is wild
threadguy retweeted
Qwerty reveals why he's happy when traders like @notthreadguy are in the same trade as he is.
"Whatever you want to say about Threadguy, he gets on a stream every single morning, and across the last six months he's longed oil, he's long $ZEC, he might have even shorted the top of oil at one moment."
"And he hits all these trades, and if Threadguy is in a trade with me, that makes me happy. That doesn't make me sad. I'm not one of those crypto ego people." - Qwerty
"Those guys are absolutely insane. I've been fortunate enough to get to know TulipKing and Malcolm; they're just smart as hell and they're tapped in. They're here every day talking like they know exactly what's going on. They know exactly what's driving the market." - Krutzky
threadguy retweeted
@tayvano_ is the goat and this is an absolute must watch
Why you shouldn't panic about AI hacks: my full interview with cybersecurity expert @tayvano_
0:37 how bad is the PHP bug?
2:33 PHP is 70% of the internet
6:59 a private key that was just "4"
9:04 crypto is safer than the internet
15:30 never panic, diversify
17:04 how Cloudflare saved the internet
18:49 Railway hack drained wallets
21:07 Monero & Zcash are most hardened
22:35 Bitcoin's real risk is its culture
27:02 hardware 2FA on everything
threadguy retweeted
Ansem praises Threadguy for overcoming negativity and shifting CT perception through consistent content
“the solve is kind of just like pushing through the negativity, I think Threadguy has done this actually really well”
“Threadguy got a lot of hate when all the Liber shit happened, got labeled as the Liber guy, had inside information, scammer, whatever”
“he took a step back and came back, I'm just going to do this content, you're going to see that I am genuine in what I'm talking about, I'm going to get better than all of you at it”
“he did it every day, over and over, you can see CT shift their perception on him in real time”
threadguy retweeted
It’s a bit brutal but BTC is probably going to be the big winner of the AI revolution. I don’t think it will suffer any hacks, the scripting language formal verification is very advanced and work in formalizing the protocol too. Nodes running on different hardware make it very robust against hardware vulnerabilities, and their sources are probably one of the most audited code in the world. Combine that with self sovereignty which protects against political backslash from K shaped economy and acceleration of margins flowing to capital, I don’t see much else. To be honest this is my macro view but it’s a pretty grim one.
threadguy retweeted
For everyone asking, here is my full $mrna dream thesis. all was recorded on the next YT vid but for u twitter folk
The dates could be off but around these days
October 4th: I wanted to speed up my stock video challenge so decided to dip my toes into options, scrolling thru my port everyone was turbo bullish on every stock except one. $MRNA, everyone and their mother could only talk about how over valued it is and how good of a short it was. All I know in stocks is that ppl complain non stop about how they got fucked. It sounds like everyone loses, and if everyone is losing, I should just fade them and it’s a lock?
Oct 5th: I decided to buy some options, far out the money decently far out strike
That night I had a dream that Moderna cured cancer and wicked to $275 in one day, my portfolio was worth $11,000,000
October 6th: they didn’t cure cancer and the stock went down so i decided to load more in
October 8th: everyone on twitter called me the biggest idiot ever, that I should go short, this gave me turbo confidence that the stock had to go up cuz again, most ppl talk like geniuses behind their -80% all time port
At this point I’m in for $250,000 on my initial 50k position
Then I started asking Claude, “what would it take to get $MRNA to $275 in the next two months????”
Claude told me that they had a big catalyst coming some meeting on the 24th reviewing their cancer trials
I figured I’d bet on the side of my dream that they would cure cancer and it would rip
Fast forward 14 days or so and the stock had ripped like 25+% all the way to my initial dreams target and it made me think, everyone knows this meeting is coming, if this news comes in anything other than 10x expectations, it’s fully priced in. The idea was that Monday it would dump regardless of how good their news was. Claude confirmed my idea. I texted my homie Tuesday night the plan to let it ride till Friday then at close flip to full port short
Everything was according to plan until Wednesday close the stock ran up 5% then fell off a cliff last 10 mins. I was working so I couldn’t do anything but I texted my friend that was the top yesterday night.
Last night I had a dream that $mrna ripped +22% today
I thought it was a sign from God that I was wrong about the top being in and that I should trust my original swap end of market on Friday plan
I checked my phone and it was giga down. My port down 200k almost had me fully in a panic, thinking, maybe the sell on the news was so obvious…. That they are selling days before the news
I got too scared that the dump would happen so soon that I’d have no capital left to flip the port short come Friday. So I decided to take the loss and at least have $500k that I can try to catch the sell on the news dump.
Went full port short under the guise that even if today is another 5% green, at least I’ll be in the position I had been seeking for a few days, confidently short going into the 24th
And the rest, is some giga stroke of luck history, the news broke early somehow????
The most likely outcome for all traders would be what I was destined for. Rock solid thesis blown up by some unlucky bs.
Lucky my panic this morning got to my head enough to break my original game plan
In hindsight, this entire saga was beyond obvious
Thanks for playing!
NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. IM JUST LEARNING AND GAMBLING. BUT ALSO PUT SUM RESPECT ON THE THESIS.
I got full receipts of every concept along the way, to be posted in the next yt vid. (After I full port SPY 0DTE
threadguy retweeted
every day we log on to twitter dot com to argue with each other about what useless internet currency will go up or down
countless days of our lives just scrolling, but I wouldn't have it any other way
threadguy retweeted
Tay says you probably shouldn’t ever panic about AI hacks
“Honestly, you probably shouldn’t ever panic. It’s usually worse to panic. If you’re in crypto, you probably know this, right? When the market starts to crash, don’t go catch the falling knife. It’s the same with security. If you panic, it usually gets worse.”
“When you’re not in a panic state, when you’re in a controlled, calm state, think about all the different assets you have. Think about how you can secure those, but also how you can diversify those to be secured by different methods.”
“You don’t want to get hacked and have your entire net worth wiped out. It’s better to diversify so that only one egg in one basket gets wrecked, rather than all of the eggs in the one basket.”
“Spread things out. Use different wallets. Use cold storage. Those sorts of things, I think, will give people a lot of peace of mind.”
