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Erm, @TVKev did you mean to pronounce @Jeremy_Hunt 's name like this? 😂😂😂😂😂😂
@Iromg @JuliaHB1 @LeAdderNoire @BurnsideNotTosh @BurnsideNew @AvonandsomerRob @Not__Skip #JeremyHunt #LizTrussPM #ConservativeChaos @francisjfoster @KonstantinKisin @andrewdoyle_com @danwootton
On The Write retweeted
I suspect this isn’t actually very good data but on the off chance that it is accurate, I will have no sympathy for the Britons who vote for the uniparty and then endure the worst decade they’ve ever experienced between now and 2036. The capital flight will be astounding. You’ll be begging for foreign aid IN rather than dishing it out.
NEW: Polling for @Ipsos_in_the_UK shared with @LBC shows another big Burnham bounce for Labour
Lab - 32% (+5)
Tories - 24% (+3)
Reform UK 20% (-3)
Lib Dems 9% (+1)
Green 8% (-5)
Largest lead this parliament, first time Tories back in second this parliament...
lbc.co.uk/article/labour-bur…
On The Write retweeted
Some of them like to dish it out but they’re not so keen when it’s served right back at them
On The Write retweeted
Dawn Butler makes a powerful point about inherited debts being owed by the modern generation. I'd like to thank her for this.
It today's terms freeing the slaves cost around £17Billion (using GDP values) on top of which Royal Navy deployments for the 60 years or so they were active in hunting down the slaves ships and disrupting the slave trade cost the UK another £30Billion to £50Billion at today's value (again using GDP values).
Using the figures above we get a sum of between £47Billion and £67Billion that Black Britains and Black people from the former Empire owe the UK Treasury. And this is before any calculation is considered for the compensation to the families of the 17,000 sailors who died on these operations.
Having explained so cogently why this sum should be paid I look forward to @DawnButlerBrent's suggestions as to a payment plan.
On The Write retweeted
On Thursday morning, @RestoreBritain founder @RupertLowe10 tweeted: “This is important - the latest huge MRP poll has Restore Britain ahead in more Scottish constituencies than both Reform or the Tories.”
The data he cited envisaged a hypothetical tactical voting scenario in a giant MRP poll issued by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus.
It showed that in a world where voters pick tactically (the long explainer for that here, for the nerds like me), Restore Britain would finish ahead of other “parties on the right” in 21 Scottish seats, with the Tories finishing top of this trio in 13, and Reform finishing top in just 12. Eleven of them, it claimed, would be tied.
He concluded: “This is remarkable. Restore Britain is now the second largest party in Scotland, and the largest party on the right - bigger than both Reform and the Tories.”
Indeed it would have been remarkable. If only it were true.
My analysis of the poll over hours on Thursday morning led me to realise there was a methodological inconsistency.
I found that although the tactical-voting calculations appeared to affect support for other parties, they actually incorrectly left Restore’s share in every constituency exactly as it was prior to tactical voting.
So I shared my findings with the pollster and the immediately corrected their data. The result? ZERO seats where Restore Britain finishes "top of the parties on the right" AND more crucially, it now hands Reform an extra 25 seats nationally.
My full tear down and explainer of this are at my Substack, linked in the first reply below.
You have no idea how much time and brain power it took to go through reams of data to understand what went wrong here for the pollster.
On The Write retweeted
In response to me calling her an “oversized child.”
Incredible scenes.
This sums up the Green Party in one tweet. They are actually this retarded.
Replying to @samhenry1128
It's not being drilled by the UK government, we will just buy our own oil from foreign companies, and importing it from Norway is actually better for the environment
Liam breaks this down brilliantly, everyone should read it, we really are fucked.
Official figures out this morning report that last month, the UK government borrowed £24.5 billion.
But the fineprint shows that almost £11 billion of that extra borrowing went on debt interest payments.
That's more than £400 per household on debt service costs, in September alone.
So far during this financial year, from April to September, the government's debt interest payments amount to £61 billion.
Now, this number will barely feature in UK newspapers and across our airwaves. It may be mentioned in passing in out-of-the-way business sections, or on the odd business bulletin.
But this huge debt interest bill won't register with the vast majority of our political and media class, or impact the national debate.
Let me explain why that's so wrong and so dangerous ...
£61 billion is a massive amount of money.
It's equivalent to the UK's entire annual defence budget – the money we're paying, increasingly to foreign creditors, simply to service our national debt for six months, not to pay any of it back.
£61 billion is equivalent to the money you'd raise over a year from adding a whopping 7 pence to the basic rate of income tax.
For £61 billion, you could build around 40 large, state-of-the-art hospitals, or employ more than 100 thousand extra nurses for ten years.
£61 billion would pay for free-at-the-point of use social care for everyone who needs it in the UK, for an entire year – three times over.
Again, this is the debt interest bill on Britain's spiralling national debt – now more than 3 trillion pounds – over the last six months alone.
The UK's public finances are close to meltdown – yet so many MPs and journalists continue blithely to view ever more public spending and borrowing as the answer to every problem.
Those who highlight the dangers post by our hugely precarious national accounts are dismissed as cranks, ideologues or worse.
But basic arithmetic has no ideology.
And there is nothing "progressive" or "kind" or "right-on" about driving the UK ever closer to the fiscal cliff edge, provoking a crisis that will make the "austerity" years of the 2010s feel like a picnic, a crisis in which poorer households will suffer the most.
Yes, Britain's national debt is lower than that of France. But because our borrowing has been rising so sharply, and because we're so prone to inflation, our debt service costs are much higher.
The UK is spending a disgraceful 3.6pc of GDP on public debt interest, while France spends less than 2.5pc.
Endless airtime and column inches are devoted to spurious conversations about a billion or two of additional "fiscal headroom" we may or may not have in three years' time.
And, of course, any "extra headroom" is immediately pledged in new spending – which means yet more borrowing.
These conversations are a waste of time – and, in fact, are deeply counterproductive. Three-year fiscal forecasts, even one- and two-year forecasts, routinely turn out to be askew by tens of billions of pounds.
I'm not saying we don't need fiscal rules - we do, but we need more immediate rules, which actually bite, acting as a meaningful constraint on out-of-control borrowing and spending.
Instead, political and media sages present the nation with spuriously precise discussions about fictional fiscal outcomes way into the future – using rules which are deliberately designed to kick arithmetic realities into the long grass ....
An increasingly expensive, over-bearing, out of control state is not the answer to Britain problems.
But unless we change course, it will certainly be our downfall.
Please like/share if you think what I'm saying is important – and if fiscal realities should feature more prominently in our national debate.
And for more sharp, plain-speaking economic analysis subscribe to:
"When The Facts Change - economic and politics in a fast-moving world, with Liam Halligan"
On The Write retweeted
STATEMENT:
Reform UK has reported ITV, its board, and its undercover reporters to the police.
Some of the crimes carry up to 10 years in prison.
They forged a passport.
They directly interfered in elections and almost certainly altered the results. Being paid to “canvass” for Reform in crucial wards we lost by a few dozen votes.
They lied to a veteran about their service and left him “violated”.
This is unprecedented.
The police are now involved.
Scrutiny of political parties is one thing.
But anyone breaking the law to try and ruin the lives of Reform’s staff, members or volunteers will be reported to the police and pursued relentlessly in the courts.
Here’s what happened 👇
The absolute brass neck of this utter wanker. More concerned about Palestine than Piddington, not fit for office.
.@EdwardJDavey & I have written today to the Prime Minister. We're deeply concerned at the postponement of Palestinian elections.
Britain needs to work with both Palestinian & Israeli authorities to ensure these elections take place on 28 November 2026, as originally planned.
I bet @DPJHodges is celebrating, his plans are working.
🚨 BREAKING: Birmingham Reform UK councillor was sent suspected asbestos package in the post.
• Dr Charlie Latchford, the Reform UK councillor for Longbridge and West Heath, reported receiving a package containing suspected asbestos on Thursday.
• He said the material was deliberately packaged in a way that would cause maximum exposure to whoever opened it.
• Police and fire crews attended the scene, after which Latchford was stripped, isolated outside and his road was quarantined.
• The councillor stated that the package will be traced and that no political or personal disagreement justifies putting someone’s health or life at risk.
• West Midlands Police treated the incident under Operation Ford and an ambulance was arranged.
On The Write retweeted
😳 Wow! Robert Jenrick just turned the tables on the BBC live on air while being grilled over Reform’s candidate vetting.
Asked about the ITV undercover exposé on some Reform councillors and candidates, Jenrick made the obvious point that there’s only so much any organisation can do when it comes to screening people.
Then he flipped it straight back at the interviewer:
“Look at the BBC for example. Can you now give a guarantee to your listeners this morning that no BBC presenter in the future will be exposed as a paedophile, as a number have been in the recent past? No, of course you can’t. Because you can’t know absolutely everything about every individual in your organisation.”
Absolutely ruthless from Robert! 🔥
Does he know something about someone at the BBC that the rest of us don’t? 🤔
You can practically hear the panic behind the scenes. 😂
Jenrick’s right, though. No amount of vetting can guarantee you know everything about every single person in a large organisation. That’s just reality.
Replying to @MatthewStadlen
Yeh it’s going swimmingly well 🙄
On The Write retweeted
Replying to @DPJHodges
Dan Hodges’ greatest hits (the wrong ones) 2017 Confidently forecast a Tory majority of 110 seats and insisted Corbyn would barely beat Ed Miliband’s 2015 numbers. Conservatives lost their majority while Corbyn hit 40% Masterful. 2016 referendum Declared Remain would win by at least 10 points. Leave won. Nice work. 2016 Labour leadership he predicted Corbyn would lose. Corbyn won, and by more Classic. 2015 he Bet UKIP would stay under 6%. They got 12.6%. At least he eventually streaked for charity and 2021 Scotland he warned that blocking an independence referendum would mean police shutting polling stations and independence becoming nailed on. Neither occurred. Bold vision, zero follow through truly elite level prognostication.
I'm getting amazingly fed up of this Farage/Chagos story and all the lefty morons sharing this quote like it's a gotcha. At no point did he say "Chagos Islands", he just says "Chagos", singular. It's pretty bloody obvious he means the base!
On The Write retweeted
Do you ever attempt to be impartial? Even as a one off? Surely your professional reputation is worth the occasional effort.
Gaslighting bullshit 😡😡😡
BREAKING: The head of MI5 has warned Britain’s migrant crisis is fuelling an increased terrorism threat.
Sir Ken McCallum, in stark terms, explained how the failure to control the borders is becoming a national security issue.
He has told reporters: "For the first time in almost five years, JTAC recently returned the UK terrorism threat level to SEVERE, meaning an attack is highly likely.
“While the threat level change reflects the whole of the terrorist threat, the recent increase was driven in significant part by Extreme Right-Wing Terrorism.
“This is a complex landscape, with many subcultures.
"Over the last year, the most marked trend has been an increase in cases where extremists of anti-immigration and anti-Muslim grievance are tipping into terrorist intent; we’ve dealt, for example, with would-be terrorists aspiring to attack mosques and venues connected to immigration and asylum."




























