Independent prediction-market analytics. We rank public forecasters by calibration (who's actually right) and flag when sharp money moves. Not financial advice.
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ALT Line chart titled 'Polymarket calibration, by price decile.' Each market is plotted once, at the price of the outcome Polymarket lists first (Yes, on Yes/No markets). X axis: that outcome's stated price as implied probability. Y axis: share that resolved yes, meaning the first-listed outcome happened. Two lines, 24 hours before resolution (blue) and 30 days before resolution (orange), against a dashed perfect-calibration diagonal. The 24-hour line tracks the diagonal below 80 cents, and its top two bins resolve under their stated price. The 30-day line sits below the diagonal in every bin from 10 cents up. Covers all resolved markets October 2025 through September 2026, short-duration Up/Down price markets excluded by policy. Data: OVERROUND Polymarket Calibration Benchmark 2026 Q4, overround.pro/benchmarks, free to reuse with credit (CC BY 4.0).
ALT OVERROUND weekly graded wallet #6 card. Masked wallet 0x684b…, checked Nov 5, 2026. Verdict: Consistent with luck at its own entry prices. A number line of excess wins per 100 events shows the 95% interval bar from -0.3 to +5.3 crossing zero ("won as often as its prices implied"), between "behind its prices" on the left and "ahead of its prices" on the right. Resolved events: over 1,000. Link: overround.pro/check. Footer: Observations, not recommendations. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
ALT The 8 largest of 69 alerts graded since Oct 26. Dates are alert dates; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 17, NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?, No, $46,600, won. Jul 27, Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?, No, $9,200, lost. Oct 2, Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?, No, $9,200, won. Oct 28, Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-28?, Yes, $4,900, lost. Oct 30, Valorant, Gentle Mates GC vs Shopify Rebellion Gold, Gentle Mates GC, $4,500, won. Oct 30, Valorant, KRÜ Blaze vs MIBR GC, MIBR GC, $4,400, lost. Oct 26, LoL, LOS vs Team Secret Whales game 2, Team Secret Whales, $4,100, lost. Jul 24, the same Vodianske market, No, $3,800, lost. All 69: 42 won, 26 lost, 1 voided. Whole record: 1,369 sent, 1,241 resolved, 768 won, 473 lost, 26 voided, 102 pending. The alerted side won 61.9% where alert prices implied 59.9%, +2.0 points (95% interval -0.4 to +4.4). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
ALT OVERROUND weekly graded wallet #5 card. Masked wallet 0xf031…, checked Oct 29, 2026. Verdict: Consistent with luck at its own entry prices. A number line of excess wins per 100 resolved events shows the 95% interval bar from -4.4 to +1.9 crossing zero, between "behind its prices" on the left and "ahead of its prices" on the right. Resolved events: 100 to 1,000. Link: overround.pro/check. Footer: Observations, not recommendations. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
ALT The 8 largest of 65 alerts graded since Oct 19. Dates are alert dates; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 21, Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?, Yes, $10,900, lost. Oct 22, Valorant, Blezz vs Natus Vincere, Natus Vincere, $6,700, won. Oct 16, Valorant, Team Liquid Brazil vs Gentle Mates GC, Gentle Mates GC, $6,200, won. Oct 23, Valorant, FunPlus Phoenix vs Dragon Ranger Gaming, Dragon Ranger Gaming, $5,700, won. Oct 25, Valorant, BBL Esports vs Fire Flux Esports, BBL Esports, $5,400, won. Oct 19, Tottenham vs Coventry 1st Half O/U 1.5, Over, $4,900, lost. Oct 22, Valorant, Team George vs Blezz, Team George, $4,800, lost. Oct 21, Bank of Russia key rate unchanged in October, Yes, $4,700, won. All 65: 35 won, 30 lost. Whole record: 1,329 sent, 1,173 resolved, 726 won, 447 lost, 25 voided, 131 pending. The alerted side won 61.9% where alert prices implied 59.9%, +2.0 points (95% interval -0.5 to +4.5). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
ALT The 8 largest of 55 alerts graded since Oct 12, by size. Dates are when each alert went out; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 14, AS Roma vs. Real Madrid CF O/U 4.5, Over, $20,800, won. Oct 15, Valorant, Team Vitality vs LOUD, LOUD, $13,900, won. Oct 12, Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-12?, Yes, $10,600, lost. Oct 18, Valorant, LOUD vs Team Vitality, LOUD, $8,600, won. Oct 16, Valorant, Team Vitality vs 100 Thieves, Team Vitality, $4,400, won. Oct 16, Dota 2, Yellow Submarine vs The Warriors, Yellow Submarine, $3,900, voided. Sep 9, Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?, Yes, $3,500, won. Oct 15, Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?, Yes, $3,500, won. All 55: 32 won, 19 lost, 4 voided. Whole record: 1,255 sent, 1,108 resolved, 691 won and 417 lost, 25 voided, 122 pending, 62% on resolved alerts. At the alert prices, which implied 60.1%, the alerted side won 62.4%, +2.3 points (95% interval -0.2 to +4.8). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
ALT The 8 largest of 61 alerts graded since Oct 5, by size. Dates are when each alert went out; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 10, Valorant, 100 Thieves vs NRG, NRG, $6,000, lost. Oct 11, Grêmio vs Internacional O/U 2.5, Over, $5,500, lost. Oct 9, LoL, Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates, Movistar KOI Fénix, $5,400, won. Oct 7, Valorant, 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports, G2 Esports, $5,300, won. Oct 9, Valorant, Fire Flux Esports vs BBL Esports, BBL Esports, $5,000, lost. Oct 11, Valorant, G2 Esports vs T1, T1, $4,900, lost. Oct 7, Valorant, Paper Rex vs LOUD, LOUD, $4,700, won. Oct 9, Valorant, 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce, Nongshim RedForce, $4,700, lost. All 61: 42 won, 19 lost, none voided. Whole record: 1,192 sent, 1,057 resolved, 659 won and 398 lost, 21 voided, 114 pending, 62% on resolved alerts. At the alert prices, which implied 60.1%, the alerted side won 62.3%, +2.2 points (95% interval -0.4 to +4.8). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
ALT The 8 largest of 156 alerts graded since Sep 21, by size. Dates are detection, not resolution; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Sep 22, Mayot vs Boulais, Mayot, $75,900, won. Jul 14, Russia to enter Dopropillia by Dec 31, No, $13,600, lost. Sep 23, Oliynykova vs Chwalinska, Chwalinska, $12,500, won. The feed alerted both sides of those three markets. Oct 2, FUT Esports vs T1, FUT, $12,300, lost. Sep 23, Komagata vs Dougaz, Komagata, $9,800, won. Sep 30, TYLOO vs Team Liquid, Team Liquid, $8,500, won. Aug 31, New People to gain the most seats in Russia's next parliamentary election, No, $7,700, won. Sep 23, Mertens vs Krejcikova, Mertens, $7,300, voided. All 156: 88 won, 61 lost, 7 voided. Whole record: 1,118 sent, 996 resolved, 617 won and 379 lost, 21 voided, 101 pending, 62% on resolved alerts. At the alert prices, which implied 60.1%, the alerted side won 61.9%, +1.9 points (95% interval -0.8 to +4.5). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
ALT OVERROUND wallet check card. Masked wallet 0x5268…. Verdict: Distinguishable from its own entry prices, and ahead of them. 95% interval: +2.0 to +3.8 excess wins per 100 events. Resolved events: over 1,000. Link: overround.pro/check. Footer: Observations, not recommendations. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
