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OVERROUND

@OverroundPro

Independent prediction-market analytics. We rank public forecasters by calibration (who's actually right) and flag when sharp money moves. Not financial advice.

overround.pro
Joined June 2026
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Weekly Graded Wallet #6: monkeymashingkeyboard, shared Oct 30 for $1.21M in 7 days. Over 1,000 resolved events: Consistent with luck at its own entry prices. 95% interval -0.3 to +5.3 excess wins per 100. overround.pro/check?utm_sour… Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
OVERROUND weekly graded wallet #6 card. Masked wallet 0x684b…, checked Nov 5, 2026. Verdict: Consistent with luck at its own entry prices. A number line of excess wins per 100 events shows the 95% interval bar from -0.3 to +5.3 crossing zero ("won as often as its prices implied"), between "behind its prices" on the left and "ahead of its prices" on the right. Resolved events: over 1,000. Link: overround.pro/check. Footer: Observations, not recommendations. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

ALT OVERROUND weekly graded wallet #6 card. Masked wallet 0x684b…, checked Nov 5, 2026. Verdict: Consistent with luck at its own entry prices. A number line of excess wins per 100 events shows the 95% interval bar from -0.3 to +5.3 crossing zero ("won as often as its prices implied"), between "behind its prices" on the left and "ahead of its prices" on the right. Resolved events: over 1,000. Link: overround.pro/check. Footer: Observations, not recommendations. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

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Graded Weekly Wrap #9: 69 alerts reached a final grade since last Monday. 42 won, 26 lost, 1 voided. Of all 1,241 resolved, 61.9% won where alert prices implied 59.9% (+2.0 pts, 95% interval -0.4 to +4.4). overround.pro/receipts?utm_s… Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
The 8 largest of 69 alerts graded since Oct 26. Dates are alert dates; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 17, NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?, No, $46,600, won. Jul 27, Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?, No, $9,200, lost. Oct 2, Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?, No, $9,200, won. Oct 28, Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-28?, Yes, $4,900, lost. Oct 30, Valorant, Gentle Mates GC vs Shopify Rebellion Gold, Gentle Mates GC, $4,500, won. Oct 30, Valorant, KRÜ Blaze vs MIBR GC, MIBR GC, $4,400, lost. Oct 26, LoL, LOS vs Team Secret Whales game 2, Team Secret Whales, $4,100, lost. Jul 24, the same Vodianske market, No, $3,800, lost. All 69: 42 won, 26 lost, 1 voided. Whole record: 1,369 sent, 1,241 resolved, 768 won, 473 lost, 26 voided, 102 pending. The alerted side won 61.9% where alert prices implied 59.9%, +2.0 points (95% interval -0.4 to +4.4). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

ALT The 8 largest of 69 alerts graded since Oct 26. Dates are alert dates; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 17, NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?, No, $46,600, won. Jul 27, Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?, No, $9,200, lost. Oct 2, Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?, No, $9,200, won. Oct 28, Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-28?, Yes, $4,900, lost. Oct 30, Valorant, Gentle Mates GC vs Shopify Rebellion Gold, Gentle Mates GC, $4,500, won. Oct 30, Valorant, KRÜ Blaze vs MIBR GC, MIBR GC, $4,400, lost. Oct 26, LoL, LOS vs Team Secret Whales game 2, Team Secret Whales, $4,100, lost. Jul 24, the same Vodianske market, No, $3,800, lost. All 69: 42 won, 26 lost, 1 voided. Whole record: 1,369 sent, 1,241 resolved, 768 won, 473 lost, 26 voided, 102 pending. The alerted side won 61.9% where alert prices implied 59.9%, +2.0 points (95% interval -0.4 to +4.4). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

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Weekly Graded Wallet #5: BreakTheBank, shared this week for +$12.1M all-time. 100 to 1,000 resolved events: Consistent with luck at its own entry prices. 95% interval -4.4 to +1.9 excess wins per 100. overround.pro/check?utm_sour… Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
OVERROUND weekly graded wallet #5 card. Masked wallet 0xf031…, checked Oct 29, 2026. Verdict: Consistent with luck at its own entry prices. A number line of excess wins per 100 resolved events shows the 95% interval bar from -4.4 to +1.9 crossing zero, between "behind its prices" on the left and "ahead of its prices" on the right. Resolved events: 100 to 1,000. Link: overround.pro/check. Footer: Observations, not recommendations. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

ALT OVERROUND weekly graded wallet #5 card. Masked wallet 0xf031…, checked Oct 29, 2026. Verdict: Consistent with luck at its own entry prices. A number line of excess wins per 100 resolved events shows the 95% interval bar from -4.4 to +1.9 crossing zero, between "behind its prices" on the left and "ahead of its prices" on the right. Resolved events: 100 to 1,000. Link: overround.pro/check. Footer: Observations, not recommendations. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

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Graded Weekly Wrap #8: 65 alerts reached a final grade since last Monday. 35 won, 30 lost. Whole record: of 1,173 resolved, 61.9% won where alert prices implied 59.9% (+2.0 pts, 95% interval -0.5 to +4.5). overround.pro/receipts?utm_s… Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
The 8 largest of 65 alerts graded since Oct 19. Dates are alert dates; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 21, Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?, Yes, $10,900, lost. Oct 22, Valorant, Blezz vs Natus Vincere, Natus Vincere, $6,700, won. Oct 16, Valorant, Team Liquid Brazil vs Gentle Mates GC, Gentle Mates GC, $6,200, won. Oct 23, Valorant, FunPlus Phoenix vs Dragon Ranger Gaming, Dragon Ranger Gaming, $5,700, won. Oct 25, Valorant, BBL Esports vs Fire Flux Esports, BBL Esports, $5,400, won. Oct 19, Tottenham vs Coventry 1st Half O/U 1.5, Over, $4,900, lost. Oct 22, Valorant, Team George vs Blezz, Team George, $4,800, lost. Oct 21, Bank of Russia key rate unchanged in October, Yes, $4,700, won. All 65: 35 won, 30 lost. Whole record: 1,329 sent, 1,173 resolved, 726 won, 447 lost, 25 voided, 131 pending. The alerted side won 61.9% where alert prices implied 59.9%, +2.0 points (95% interval -0.5 to +4.5). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

ALT The 8 largest of 65 alerts graded since Oct 19. Dates are alert dates; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 21, Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?, Yes, $10,900, lost. Oct 22, Valorant, Blezz vs Natus Vincere, Natus Vincere, $6,700, won. Oct 16, Valorant, Team Liquid Brazil vs Gentle Mates GC, Gentle Mates GC, $6,200, won. Oct 23, Valorant, FunPlus Phoenix vs Dragon Ranger Gaming, Dragon Ranger Gaming, $5,700, won. Oct 25, Valorant, BBL Esports vs Fire Flux Esports, BBL Esports, $5,400, won. Oct 19, Tottenham vs Coventry 1st Half O/U 1.5, Over, $4,900, lost. Oct 22, Valorant, Team George vs Blezz, Team George, $4,800, lost. Oct 21, Bank of Russia key rate unchanged in October, Yes, $4,700, won. All 65: 35 won, 30 lost. Whole record: 1,329 sent, 1,173 resolved, 726 won, 447 lost, 25 voided, 131 pending. The alerted side won 61.9% where alert prices implied 59.9%, +2.0 points (95% interval -0.5 to +4.5). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

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Graded Weekly Wrap #7: 55 alerts reached a final grade since last Monday. 32 won, 19 lost, 4 voided. Of all 1,108 resolved, 62.4% won where alert prices implied 60.1% (+2.3 pts, 95% interval -0.2 to +4.8). overround.pro/receipts?utm_s… Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
The 8 largest of 55 alerts graded since Oct 12, by size. Dates are when each alert went out; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 14, AS Roma vs. Real Madrid CF O/U 4.5, Over, $20,800, won. Oct 15, Valorant, Team Vitality vs LOUD, LOUD, $13,900, won. Oct 12, Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-12?, Yes, $10,600, lost. Oct 18, Valorant, LOUD vs Team Vitality, LOUD, $8,600, won. Oct 16, Valorant, Team Vitality vs 100 Thieves, Team Vitality, $4,400, won. Oct 16, Dota 2, Yellow Submarine vs The Warriors, Yellow Submarine, $3,900, voided. Sep 9, Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?, Yes, $3,500, won. Oct 15, Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?, Yes, $3,500, won. All 55: 32 won, 19 lost, 4 voided. Whole record: 1,255 sent, 1,108 resolved, 691 won and 417 lost, 25 voided, 122 pending, 62% on resolved alerts. At the alert prices, which implied 60.1%, the alerted side won 62.4%, +2.3 points (95% interval -0.2 to +4.8). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

ALT The 8 largest of 55 alerts graded since Oct 12, by size. Dates are when each alert went out; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 14, AS Roma vs. Real Madrid CF O/U 4.5, Over, $20,800, won. Oct 15, Valorant, Team Vitality vs LOUD, LOUD, $13,900, won. Oct 12, Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-12?, Yes, $10,600, lost. Oct 18, Valorant, LOUD vs Team Vitality, LOUD, $8,600, won. Oct 16, Valorant, Team Vitality vs 100 Thieves, Team Vitality, $4,400, won. Oct 16, Dota 2, Yellow Submarine vs The Warriors, Yellow Submarine, $3,900, voided. Sep 9, Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?, Yes, $3,500, won. Oct 15, Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?, Yes, $3,500, won. All 55: 32 won, 19 lost, 4 voided. Whole record: 1,255 sent, 1,108 resolved, 691 won and 417 lost, 25 voided, 122 pending, 62% on resolved alerts. At the alert prices, which implied 60.1%, the alerted side won 62.4%, +2.3 points (95% interval -0.2 to +4.8). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

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Graded Weekly Wrap #6: 61 alerts reached a final grade since last Monday. 42 won, 19 lost. Whole record: of 1,057 resolved, 62.3% won where alert prices implied 60.1% (+2.2 pts, 95% interval -0.4 to +4.8). overround.pro/receipts?utm_s… Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
The 8 largest of 61 alerts graded since Oct 5, by size. Dates are when each alert went out; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 10, Valorant, 100 Thieves vs NRG, NRG, $6,000, lost. Oct 11, Grêmio vs Internacional O/U 2.5, Over, $5,500, lost. Oct 9, LoL, Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates, Movistar KOI Fénix, $5,400, won. Oct 7, Valorant, 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports, G2 Esports, $5,300, won. Oct 9, Valorant, Fire Flux Esports vs BBL Esports, BBL Esports, $5,000, lost. Oct 11, Valorant, G2 Esports vs T1, T1, $4,900, lost. Oct 7, Valorant, Paper Rex vs LOUD, LOUD, $4,700, won. Oct 9, Valorant, 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce, Nongshim RedForce, $4,700, lost. All 61: 42 won, 19 lost, none voided. Whole record: 1,192 sent, 1,057 resolved, 659 won and 398 lost, 21 voided, 114 pending, 62% on resolved alerts. At the alert prices, which implied 60.1%, the alerted side won 62.3%, +2.2 points (95% interval -0.4 to +4.8). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

ALT The 8 largest of 61 alerts graded since Oct 5, by size. Dates are when each alert went out; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Oct 10, Valorant, 100 Thieves vs NRG, NRG, $6,000, lost. Oct 11, Grêmio vs Internacional O/U 2.5, Over, $5,500, lost. Oct 9, LoL, Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates, Movistar KOI Fénix, $5,400, won. Oct 7, Valorant, 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports, G2 Esports, $5,300, won. Oct 9, Valorant, Fire Flux Esports vs BBL Esports, BBL Esports, $5,000, lost. Oct 11, Valorant, G2 Esports vs T1, T1, $4,900, lost. Oct 7, Valorant, Paper Rex vs LOUD, LOUD, $4,700, won. Oct 9, Valorant, 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce, Nongshim RedForce, $4,700, lost. All 61: 42 won, 19 lost, none voided. Whole record: 1,192 sent, 1,057 resolved, 659 won and 398 lost, 21 voided, 114 pending, 62% on resolved alerts. At the alert prices, which implied 60.1%, the alerted side won 62.3%, +2.2 points (95% interval -0.4 to +4.8). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

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New Polymarket calibration benchmark, Oct 2025-Sep 2026. A month out, in the thinnest-traded third of markets, outcomes Polymarket lists first (e.g. Yes) priced 50¢+ came true 51.2% of the time at an average 77.6¢. Busiest third: 75.9% at 77.7¢. overround.pro/benchmarks/pol…
Line chart titled 'Polymarket calibration, by price decile.' Each market is plotted once, at the price of the outcome Polymarket lists first (Yes, on Yes/No markets). X axis: that outcome's stated price as implied probability. Y axis: share that resolved yes, meaning the first-listed outcome happened. Two lines, 24 hours before resolution (blue) and 30 days before resolution (orange), against a dashed perfect-calibration diagonal. The 24-hour line tracks the diagonal below 80 cents, and its top two bins resolve under their stated price. The 30-day line sits below the diagonal in every bin from 10 cents up. Covers all resolved markets October 2025 through September 2026, short-duration Up/Down price markets excluded by policy. Data: OVERROUND Polymarket Calibration Benchmark 2026 Q4, overround.pro/benchmarks, free to reuse with credit (CC BY 4.0).

ALT Line chart titled 'Polymarket calibration, by price decile.' Each market is plotted once, at the price of the outcome Polymarket lists first (Yes, on Yes/No markets). X axis: that outcome's stated price as implied probability. Y axis: share that resolved yes, meaning the first-listed outcome happened. Two lines, 24 hours before resolution (blue) and 30 days before resolution (orange), against a dashed perfect-calibration diagonal. The 24-hour line tracks the diagonal below 80 cents, and its top two bins resolve under their stated price. The 30-day line sits below the diagonal in every bin from 10 cents up. Covers all resolved markets October 2025 through September 2026, short-duration Up/Down price markets excluded by policy. Data: OVERROUND Polymarket Calibration Benchmark 2026 Q4, overround.pro/benchmarks, free to reuse with credit (CC BY 4.0).

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Graded Weekly Wrap #5: 156 alerts graded since wrap #4 on Sep 21. 88 won, 61 lost, 7 voided. Whole record: of 996 resolved, 61.9% won where alert prices implied 60.1% (+1.9 pts, 95% interval -0.8 to +4.5). overround.pro/receipts?utm_s… Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
The 8 largest of 156 alerts graded since Sep 21, by size. Dates are detection, not resolution; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Sep 22, Mayot vs Boulais, Mayot, $75,900, won. Jul 14, Russia to enter Dopropillia by Dec 31, No, $13,600, lost. Sep 23, Oliynykova vs Chwalinska, Chwalinska, $12,500, won. The feed alerted both sides of those three markets. Oct 2, FUT Esports vs T1, FUT, $12,300, lost. Sep 23, Komagata vs Dougaz, Komagata, $9,800, won. Sep 30, TYLOO vs Team Liquid, Team Liquid, $8,500, won. Aug 31, New People to gain the most seats in Russia's next parliamentary election, No, $7,700, won. Sep 23, Mertens vs Krejcikova, Mertens, $7,300, voided. All 156: 88 won, 61 lost, 7 voided. Whole record: 1,118 sent, 996 resolved, 617 won and 379 lost, 21 voided, 101 pending, 62% on resolved alerts. At the alert prices, which implied 60.1%, the alerted side won 61.9%, +1.9 points (95% interval -0.8 to +4.5). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

ALT The 8 largest of 156 alerts graded since Sep 21, by size. Dates are detection, not resolution; size is the tracked wallet's largest observed position. Sep 22, Mayot vs Boulais, Mayot, $75,900, won. Jul 14, Russia to enter Dopropillia by Dec 31, No, $13,600, lost. Sep 23, Oliynykova vs Chwalinska, Chwalinska, $12,500, won. The feed alerted both sides of those three markets. Oct 2, FUT Esports vs T1, FUT, $12,300, lost. Sep 23, Komagata vs Dougaz, Komagata, $9,800, won. Sep 30, TYLOO vs Team Liquid, Team Liquid, $8,500, won. Aug 31, New People to gain the most seats in Russia's next parliamentary election, No, $7,700, won. Sep 23, Mertens vs Krejcikova, Mertens, $7,300, voided. All 156: 88 won, 61 lost, 7 voided. Whole record: 1,118 sent, 996 resolved, 617 won and 379 lost, 21 voided, 101 pending, 62% on resolved alerts. At the alert prices, which implied 60.1%, the alerted side won 61.9%, +1.9 points (95% interval -0.8 to +4.5). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

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Weekly Graded Wallet #4: HomeRunHazard, shared for 34K+ markets traded. 1,000+ resolved events: Distinguishable from its own entry prices, and ahead of them. 95% interval +2.0 to +3.8 excess wins per 100. overround.pro/check?utm_sour… Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
OVERROUND wallet check card. Masked wallet 0x5268…. Verdict: Distinguishable from its own entry prices, and ahead of them. 95% interval: +2.0 to +3.8 excess wins per 100 events. Resolved events: over 1,000. Link: overround.pro/check. Footer: Observations, not recommendations. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

ALT OVERROUND wallet check card. Masked wallet 0x5268…. Verdict: Distinguishable from its own entry prices, and ahead of them. 95% interval: +2.0 to +3.8 excess wins per 100 events. Resolved events: over 1,000. Link: overround.pro/check. Footer: Observations, not recommendations. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

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