Pinned Tweet
🛑🛑🛑 Bookmark it first🔖
𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 5 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝘆 𝗔𝗜 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗽: 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗥𝗮𝗰𝗸.
One megawatt, followed from the power plant to the GPU. 118 public companies, grouped by the step they sell into.
Part 4 found about 1 GW of the 6.2 GW under contract at public AI landlords is live today $IREN $CIFR $APLD $WULF. The rest waits on the steps below.
1. $GEV GE Vernova expects at least 125 GW of gas equipment under contract by year end
2. Mitsubishi Heavy (7011.T) says its June quarter gas turbine orders are mostly scheduled to deliver in 2028 to 2030
3. $SO Georgia Power will serve OpenAI's roughly 3.2 GW campus near Savannah under a 25-year agreement
4. Hitachi Energy, part of Hitachi (6501.T), had a backlog of about $63.6B at the end of June
5. Infineon (IFX.DE) told investors it is in allocation on AI power chips
6. $TXN Texas Instruments' data center revenue rose about 95% in Q3
7. $CARR Carrier's data center orders rose more than 300% in Q2
𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 4 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝘆 𝗔𝗜 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗽. Who signed AI data center leases, and how much is actually live.
A lease pays only once the building goes live. Most of it is still being built. Card 1 is the build calendar, card 2 is the scoreboard.
𝗗𝘂𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗤4
1. $BTDR Bitdeer, Norway phase 1
2. $DGXX Digi Power X, first phase for Cerebras
3. $WULF TeraWulf, next Lake Mariner building
4. $IREN IREN, rest of the Microsoft build
𝗪𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴
1. $CRWV CoreWeave, tenant at Applied Digital, Core Scientific and Galaxy
2. $NBIS Nebius, Microsoft and Meta are its biggest customers
3. $MARA MARA, gigawatt-scale power, no signed AI lease yet
4. $CIFR Cipher, rent started, live MW not disclosed. Q3 update Nov 2
I own IREN, Applied Digital, Cipher, Hut 8 and Riot.
$TEM xR, its RNA sequencing test, is now certified under EU IVDR as a Class C device. In the US, a two-gene version, xR IVD, got FDA clearance in Sep 2025.
In a 2022 $TEM study, 29.1% of actionable gene fusions showed up only on RNA. DNA alone missed them.
Biopharma partners now get a certified test for EU trials.
xH is $TEM's first whole-genome sequencing assay, built to detect actionable targets in peripheral blood and bone marrow for hematologic malignancies, optimized for myeloid neoplasms (AML, MDS, MPN, and MDS/MPN overlap). First announced research-use-only in January 2025, now headed for clinical use.
The validation. Across a 235-specimen analytical study (whole blood, bone marrow, cell lines), positive percent agreement came in at 97.29% for SNVs and indels versus the xT 648-gene DNA assay, 92.86% for structural variants versus xR whole-transcriptome plus confirmatory Sanger, and 93.43% for copy number alterations versus an Oligo-SNP microarray. Precision was 98.97% PPV for SNVs and indels and 100% for structural variants. Clean concordance against established methods, including $TEM 's own assays.
The clinical-utility data is the real story. At the 2026 ASCO meeting, in a blinded MDS cohort, xH hit over 99% sensitivity and uncovered 40% more clinically relevant genomic findings that traditional standard-of-care techniques missed entirely. For a diagnostic, finding what others miss is the adoption argument.
The milestone. Commercial clinical ordering is expected later this year. That is the move from research-use-only to a billable, orderable test, which is what turns xH into revenue. One high-throughput WGS workflow replaces several separate tests, and it feeds $TEM 's biopharma multiomic data business.
still myeloid-first, solid tumors are the bigger market and not here yet. Clinical availability is not instant reimbursement, and adoption ramps slowly. Real-world uptake is the next proof.
Sentiment: bullish for $TEM. Strong validation, a concrete clinical-utility result, and a near-term commercial timeline.
Elon on X: "𝙎𝙥𝙖𝙘𝙚𝙓 𝙘𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙚𝙙 $40𝘽 𝙤𝙛 𝙙𝙚𝙗𝙩 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙂𝙋𝙐𝙨"
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
The $SPCX 8-K says binding commitment letter. Rate not priced, closing conditions still open, close expected before year end.
Same weekend he said lenders are shutting out neoclouds. J.P. Morgan has $SPCX at -$81.6B of free cash flow in 2027.
Elon says 200+ neoclouds face "𝙜𝙪𝙥𝙥𝙮-𝙡𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙡 𝙙𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙝" as debt markets shut them out.
J.P. Morgan has $SPCX burning $81.6B of free cash flow in 2027, more than $META. 🤣😂😂😂😂😂
Morgan Stanley reiterated $MSFT Overweight with a $600 target, two days before Wednesday's earnings.
Their bet: cheaper open-weight models mean more AI usage, and Microsoft bills that usage.
Same note: options imply only ~6.9% odds of $MSFT clearing $600 within a year.
Ready for another volatile week? This one will make or break my portfolio. Don't know about you guys.
150+ $SPY S&P 500 companies report, and the Fed and Q3 GDP land right in the middle of it.
Of the 55 names on the card, analysts expect 45 to earn more than a year ago.
The 9 expected lower:
$UPS
$HOOD
$NOW
$EQIX
$FDX
$LLY
$MRK
$BMY
$COIN.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼
1. Wednesday 2:00 PM ET: Fed decision. The Fed raised to 3.75% to 4.00% in September. Futures price a hold near 90% and a December hike above 80%.
2. $MSFT and $GOOGL report after the close that day.
3. Thursday 8:30 AM ET: Q3 GDP and September PCE. Consensus about 3.0% growth, core PCE 3.1% from a year ago.
4. $AMZN reports that evening.
𝗠𝘆 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀
1. $AMKR Monday. Guided $0.72 to $0.82 on $1.95B to $2.05B.
2. $GOOGL Wednesday. Google Cloud grew 82% to $24.8B in Q2.
𝗕𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘀
1. $SNDK $45.22 vs $0.90
2. $MSTR $21.50 vs $8.42
3. $STX $7.17 vs $2.51
4. $GEV $4.03 vs $1.64
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Wells Fargo's HPC comp sheet has $APLD $CIFR $HUT $CORZ $WULF all trading below the value of contracts they already signed.
Q3 leasing set a record ~18GW. The open question is who funds the build. Wells Fargo: "𝙒𝙚 𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙧𝙚𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙧𝙚 𝙖𝙩 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙩 $1 𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙛 𝘼𝙄 𝘥𝘦𝘣𝘵 𝙞𝙣 2027"
About 8GW of Q3's record data center leasing came from one site, the OpenAI Portsmouth, Ohio lease. Take it out and North America did ~5GW.
Wells Fargo has $CRWV at Overweight with a $160 target. The stock traded at $51.34 today after Elon's neocloud post.
About 8GW of Q3's record data center leasing came from one site, the OpenAI Portsmouth, Ohio lease. Take it out and North America did ~5GW.
Wells Fargo has $CRWV at Overweight with a $160 target. The stock traded at $51.34 today after Elon's neocloud post.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Anthropic's S-1 drops at 9am ET today, per @LizClaman 's sources.
Confidential filers have to go public 15 days before the roadshow. Oct 26 plus 15 is Nov 10, which still fits a Nov 19 or 20 IPO.
The filing already slipped once from Oct 23.
This quoted post is unavailable.
𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗸𝗲𝘁 getting cooked after one Elon post.
1. $CHRN $15.20 (+2.91%)
2. $BTBT $0.8429 (-0.22%)
3. $WYFI $9.80 (-1.80%)
4. $HUT $59.89 (-2.19%)
5. $MARA $6.84 (-2.59%)
6. $GLXY $14.30 (-2.59%)
7. $KEEL $2.11 (-2.76%)
8. $RIOT $12.18 (-2.79%)
9. $WULF $11.00 (-2.83%)
10. $APLD $17.60 (-3.54%)
11. $CIFR $7.63 (-3.91%)
12. $NBIS $152.46 (-3.96%)
13. $IREN $23.85 (-4.24%)
14. $NUAI $2.83 (-4.39%)
15. $CRWV $51.34 (-5.34%)
His point is that debt markets have almost shut for anyone whose revenue is only AI data centers.
7 of the 15 now trade at or under their 52-week low: $APLD $BTBT $CIFR $CRWV $GLXY $IREN $WYFI.
$META is selling about $95B of new stock. Its chip suppliers $NVDA $AMD $AVGO indicated up to $5B of it.
$MS and $GS sell borrowed shares this week. Meta hands over new shares and gets the cash later, any time up to Nov 2027.
🚨🚨🚨💥💥💥💥🚨🚨🚨🚨💥💥💥
Meta $META just told us where the AI bottleneck is, and it is not demand.
Its newest product is not even global yet.
Mark Zuckerberg $META, CEO:
'𝙄 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙠 𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙗𝙞𝙜𝙜𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙨 𝙨𝙤 𝙛𝙖𝙧 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙗𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙪𝙨𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙞𝙨 𝙖 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙪𝙩𝙚-𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙨𝙚𝙧𝙫𝙞𝙘𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙧𝙪𝙣, 𝙬𝙚 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙡𝙖𝙪𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙚𝙙 𝙞𝙩 𝙜𝙡𝙤𝙗𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙮𝙚𝙩.'
People keep calling this a bubble. A bubble is a build-out running ahead of demand. This is demand waiting on compute.
We are early. 🧘♂️😏😇
Drawdown math gets brutal fast. 🔻🔻🔻
A 50% drop needs a 100% gain to get back to even.
60% needs 150%.
70% needs 233%.
80% needs 400%.
Get cut in half twice and you are down 75%, with a 300% climb back.
$CIFR $IREN $APLD $CRWV $NBIS
Patient Investor retweeted
Replying to @elonmusk
@elonmusk may be right that we'll see unfinished data centers. But not all developers operate the same way.
$WULF follows a disciplined approach:
1. Identify sites with demonstrated customer interest.
2. Secure power from investment grade utilities.
3. Lock down specs, construction costs and schedules through GMP EPC contracts.
4. Secure long-term customer commitments backed by investment grade credit.
5. Arrange financing before committing to major construction.
We may move dirt early, but we don't build on spec.
I suspect we'll see projects stall because of inadequate capital, weak counterparties, execution misses, or regulatory hurdles. For experienced infrastructure developers with strong balance sheets, that creates opportunity.
What others call stranded assets, we may call a development pipeline. @PSInvestor @GavinSBaker
Replying to @Yuchenj_UW
I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
The week starts tomorrow. Fed on Wednesday, GDP and PCE on Thursday, and 55 earnings on one card with consensus vs last year. Green arrow, analysts expect growth. Red, they don't. Saved it so you don't have to dig.
$MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $AMKR $SNDK $MSTR $COIN $RDDT $STX $KLAC $LLY $V
Ready for another volatile week? This one will make or break my portfolio. Don't know about you guys.
150+ $SPY S&P 500 companies report, and the Fed and Q3 GDP land right in the middle of it.
Of the 55 names on the card, analysts expect 45 to earn more than a year ago.
The 9 expected lower:
$UPS
$HOOD
$NOW
$EQIX
$FDX
$LLY
$MRK
$BMY
$COIN.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼
1. Wednesday 2:00 PM ET: Fed decision. The Fed raised to 3.75% to 4.00% in September. Futures price a hold near 90% and a December hike above 80%.
2. $MSFT and $GOOGL report after the close that day.
3. Thursday 8:30 AM ET: Q3 GDP and September PCE. Consensus about 3.0% growth, core PCE 3.1% from a year ago.
4. $AMZN reports that evening.
𝗠𝘆 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀
1. $AMKR Monday. Guided $0.72 to $0.82 on $1.95B to $2.05B.
2. $GOOGL Wednesday. Google Cloud grew 82% to $24.8B in Q2.
𝗕𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘀
1. $SNDK $45.22 vs $0.90
2. $MSTR $21.50 vs $8.42
3. $STX $7.17 vs $2.51
4. $GEV $4.03 vs $1.64
I ran Morgan Stanley's PSP targets backwards through its own lease math.
$WULF's base case needs about 3x the leases it has signed today. $CIFR needs more than 2x.
My guess: the next signed lease moves these more than any rate cut. I'm assuming every new watt earns the bank's indicative rent. robinhood:0x2d427692e928fa156ec22acfabafa0447c5805b7
Data center sentiment is as bad as it gets. Elon Musk is calling for neocloud death. $IREN $NBIS $CRWV 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
And yet the money and the megawatts keep showing up.
What kills a builder now is being late. Tenants raised the price of late fivefold this year.
BofA sees $NBIS exiting the quarter with 675 MW of connected power and ~525MW of active power, representing a meaningful step-up from the 170MW active at the start of 2026.
The primary focus will be Nebius’ ability to achieve its year-end target of 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power, particularly potential delays at Vineland.
Elon Musk just wrote off 200+ neoclouds:
"𝙜𝙪𝙥𝙥𝙮-𝙡𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙡 𝙙𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙝 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣"
Same post, he says $SPCX just closed $40B of GPU debt because it's investment grade.
The only AI compute company he sounds sure about is his own.
$CRWV $NBIS $IREN, GLHF Monday.
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.































