Golden Dome 101 Podcast host. $Cashtag clash. Space Enthusiast. Making lemonade.
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Joined January 2019
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Pat Neville retweeted
NASA JUST SENT A QUANTUM SIGNAL FROM A FLYING PLANE TO THE GROUND.
IT’S THE FIRST TIME THE U.S. HAS EVER DONE IT.
Released today, researchers at NASA’s Glenn Research Center sent single particles of light, photons, between an aircraft and a ground station over a quantum channel. NASA says it’s the first time that’s been achieved in the U.S.
The aircraft was one of NASA’s PC-12s, with the ground station locking onto the quantum signal in flight.
A quantum signal can’t be copied or intercepted without disturbing it. That’s the physics behind communication that can’t be secretly tapped.
This didn’t come out of nowhere. NASA Glenn’s laser-communication plane has already sent gigabit-speed laser links up to 60 km from the air to the ground. Now it’s carrying quantum signals.
Fiber can only reach so far. Planes, drones and satellites are how you link the rest. NASA’s quantum team says the goal is long-distance quantum networking through open air, not just through cables.
America is finally catching up to China in this realm.
$INFQ $IONQ $QNT
THE QUANTUM INTERNET IS COMING
Remember when I said China leads the quantum network race? The US just answered twice in the same week.
Result one: Stony Brook and Brookhaven National Lab sent quantum information through open air across 13 miles. No cable at all. The first US demonstration of its kind.
Result two: a NIST led team transmitted entangled photons across 62 kilometers of fiber. Not lab fiber but an existing, ordinary, already in the ground telecom cable. The toughest real world test the quantum internet has passed.
Why both are hard: entanglement is the resource that makes quantum networks work, and it's absurdly fragile. Temperature, vibration, atmosphere, the noise of regular traffic in nearby fibers, all of it destroys quantum states. Getting them through 38 miles of commercial cable, or 13 miles of open sky is a massive feat.
But kilometers aren't the whole story.
China's famous 12,000 km quantum backbone runs on an older architecture, trusted relay nodes. Every few hundred kilometers the signal stops, gets measured, gets re-sent.
What NIST demonstrated is the next architecture which is entanglement over real infrastructure, end to end, no trusted middlemen. And it rides fiber that's already underground. Every telecom on earth already owns the hard part.
What Stony Brook demonstrated is the path off the ground entirely. Free space links are the stepping stone to quantum satellites, the one domain China has monopolized since Micius launched (Though its had its problems).
So overall, China built more kilometers of the old design over a decade. The US just demonstrated the new design on buried cable AND in open air, in seven days.
This race has just begun.
$IONQ $RGTI $INFQ $QBTS
Pat Neville retweeted
BREAKING: A former senior Pentagon space official is warning that President Trump’s Golden Dome missile-defense program may not survive his presidency, citing its potential $1 trillion cost and growing political opposition.
Speaking at the CyberSat Summit, John Plumb, who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy under President Biden, argued that the program’s association with Trump could undermine the bipartisan support traditionally enjoyed by U.S. missile defense.
Plumb specifically questioned whether Golden Dome’s proposed space-based interceptors would survive under a future administration.
He argued that the project’s enormous potential cost could divert resources from other defense priorities, while emphasizing that America’s broader missile-defense efforts would continue regardless.
Other industry executives raised concerns about financing, implementation and cybersecurity requirements.
Golden Dome remains an active Pentagon initiative. Plumb’s comments represent his assessment, not an announced cancellation or change in government policy.
Pat Neville retweeted
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas in new @SpaceX note:
“Just 4 months since our initiation, we’ve nearly doubled our 2027 revenue (to $175B) and EBIT estimates, while pulling forward FCF break-even by four years (to 2031) and cutting ~$280bn from our projected debt issuance. On fiscal year 2028, $SPCX trades cheaper than the S&P500. Interesting.
Our financial forecasts have improved significantly:
• Revenues: FY27 and FY28 revenues have been revised up 93% and 84% to $175B and $289B respectively.
• Operating Income: Our FY28 EBIT forecast has been revised up 72% to $119B.
• Free Cash Flow: At the time of our initiation, we had expected SPCX to be FCF negative until 2035. Today, we forecast the company to achieve positive FCF by 2031 - a 4 year pull-forward FCF break-even.
• Expected Borrowing: At initiation, we anticipated SPCX would raise a combined $670B of external funds (IG borrowing) through the 2035 time horizon. Today, we forecast a combined $390B of borrowing through 2031.
At our new 2028 earnings (adj.) of $109B and the current market cap of $1.91T ($140 a share), SPCX would trade at 17.6x P/E, cheaper than the S&P500 2028 forward P/E of 17.7x (MSe), while growing earnings at a ~150% CAGR from 2026-2030e.”
Pat Neville retweeted
Half of 500 Americans surveyed would pay for one app that handles their records, labs, wearable data, and booking care.
That's the race to become the "healthcare home," one of six trends identified. The others:
- Non-toxic everything, from water filters to organic mattresses
- Peptides beyond GLP-1s
- Cholesterol treatment that can reverse some of the plaque in your arteries
- Wearables that measure far more than steps
- Brain-computer interfaces and wearables for the brain
Across all six, consumers are ready to act. They're seeking out tests, trying new products, and spending their own money on health. The opening for founders is helping them follow through.
"As AI makes answers and interpretation cheaper, value will migrate to the companies that can figure out the action layer."
Full piece from a16z's Daisy Wolf and Eva Steinman: a16z.news/p/the-state-of-lon…
@a16z State of Longevity report is out!
@evajsteinman and I surveyed 500 Americans to predict what's next.
We're also interviewing people at the cutting edge of health & tech about what they do themselves. My interview with @hubermanlab is out today.
Defense-tech investor Ray Edwards explains how startups should navigate venture capital and the Pentagon’s acquisition system.
art19.com/shows/golden-dome-…
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Pat Neville retweeted
CEO of Eli Lilly $LLY
The biggest beneficiary of AI is Biotech.
The case:
thierryvonarvy.substack.com/…
Pat Neville retweeted
So far the Eli Lilly $LLY trade is playing out exactly how I've predicted it. Elon is even starting to KOL this thing so let me break down where we are currently in the trade and where we still have to go:
1. Every earnings call is another opportunity for weight loss patients & revenues to surprise Wall Street. Firms like Goldman & UBS are projecting up to 50M global glp customers by 2030. This is a gross underestimate considering there's ~30M weight loss customers in the US already. My estimates are closer to 100s of Millions of customers by 2030, reaching 1B+ customers sometime around 2032. ⭐️ Wall Street is still underestimating this drug by nearly an entire Zero
2. In the process of making more money than god selling weight loss drugs, Eli Lilly will be the single largest investor in healthcare R&D by a milestone. Around 2030 I also project Eli Lilly will have a larger dedicated budget for drug R&D than the NIH. Let me re-iterate, Eli Lilly will be investing in new drugs above the level of nation states
The secret success story of this company has been their ability to continuously identify drugs with the right mix of commercial value & clinical viability. They're the most efficient Pharma company at this in the world. Imagine what happens when you give them a larger R&D budget than Apple & Nvidia combined?
^ This is what Elon is so excited about. As he's dipped his toes into neuralink, he's no doubt realized that drug development and R&D is it's own beast. Anthropic can publish some fun stuff about protein folding. Citrini can write an entire article about spending 6 figs on AI tokens that didn't develop a successful drug. But only a few companies actually have the chops to get drugs to the end market - specifically Eli Lilly
3. Eli Lilly will be launching cures for most major causes of death in the next decade. Weight, Cholesterol, and Cancers. The common wisdom is "pharma companies want to keep you sick". That is stupid
90 year olds spend exponentially more money on medicine than 70 year olds who spend exponentially more money on medicine than 50 year olds who spend exponentially more money on medicine than 30 year olds who spend exponentially more money on medicine than ... People dying at 50 because of heart problems and cancer is bad for business. Any even remotely rational analysis of how healthcare money is spent will confirm this
By curing most major causes of death, Eli Lilly will create an entire new cohort of old people who will be wildly net profitable (this is your right tail outcome)
Here's the work in progress Eli Lilly thesis:
* However well you think reta & the glp's are gonna sell, it will sell more - this cash windfall buys all future growth
* CEO says ~25% of revenue will always go back to R&D, soon they'll flip the budget of NIH. LLY will be a nation state actor in medicine financing
* Lillypod is bringing 9,000+ petaFLOPs online, Lilly will have the most compute in pharma (more than any of the other ai pharma upstarts)
* drugs can be patented in a way software cannot, AI entrenches not erodes their moat
* Lilly has the most efficient pipeline for drug approval, this will matter a lot in a world where you think AI accelerates discovery
* If AI bubble pops, Lilly is a beneficiary of cheap compute from overbuilt capacity. all revenue not tied to AI at all (read: isolated from concentration risk)
* Lilly is curing 2 major causes of death: obesity & heart problems. People will live longer. Older people buy exponentially more drugs. Asymmetric long term growth not priced in
* ATH breakout, chart looks great (parabolic asf though)
Pat Neville retweeted
We mourn the passing of Patrick Stewart, who inspired countless individuals at NASA (and beyond) to boldly go where no one has gone before.
ALT Image description: A packed, sparkling starfield captured by our Hubble telescope — with strange new worlds potentially awaiting. Credit: ESA/Hubble and NASA, R. Cohen
Pat Neville retweeted
Yesterday's earnings call with Reddit's CEO will be referenced for years to come.
Reddit, $RDDT, is now down -42% in 8 trading days.
AI has disrupted search, and the internet more broadly, forever.
Our thoughts on this are included below.
Reddit's earnings call has exposed the new reality for thousands of companies.
"AI mode does not drive traffic. Not for us and not to anybody as far as I know. It used to be a traffic driver. Now it's not." - Reddit CEO.
The reality is that AI is fundamentally changing the way that humans access the internet.
Just 24 hours prior to this statement, Google's stock erased -$480 billion on the same issue: AI is disrupting the traditional search model.
For decades, the internet operated on a simple model. Search engines directed users to websites, and those websites monetized the traffic.
AI is destroying this business model, and it's happening at an accelerating pace.
The traditional model of internet traffic is rapidly becoming outdated.
The internet has entered a new era.
Pat Neville retweeted
Gm
I think Hyperliquid, Uniswap and what we’re developing on Robinhood Chain through StonkBrokers’ fintech infrastructure have the potential to demonstrate immense strength and growth outside the usual “crypto bubble.”
So I’m not concerned with the sentiment around the Binance hack only that we push for better security moving forward. We’ll keep building, and leveling up.
Business as usual here. Let’s get to work. We have a financial system to revolutionize.
In the words of the best captain in history Jean Luc Picard, “Engage!”
Pat Neville retweeted
In lieu of flowers, memorial contributions may be made to:
Johns Hopkins Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center Fund
alzresearch.org/giving/
Alzheimer’s Foundation of America Caregiver Resources
alzfdn.org/donate/
Photo Credit: Tommy Garcia
Pat Neville retweeted
Eli Lilly lifts sales outlook as blockbuster weight-loss drugs fuel growth
$LLY +3.3%
