Patrick Doyle retweeted
The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028.
She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.”
Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas.
Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview.
Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post.
Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics.
youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
Patrick Doyle retweeted
Generally speaking, voters want data center moratoriums in the same sense that they want tariffs.
Did voters ask for tariffs? Yes. Did they want them in practice? Absolutely no.
Voters wanted prices to go down & for communities that were hollowed out to be revitalized.
Do voters want data center moratoriums? Yes. But do they want the results of a data center moratorium? Almost certainly not.
Data centers are enormous mechanisms of wealth redistribution. They are huge projects built in otherwise abandoned communities and they funnel money directly into the hands of the people who need it the most.
A single project can double the total tax revenue of the local area, meaning if you want, you can completely cut tax revenues of the area.
If you ask a voter why they dislike data centers, they may say "water" or "noise", but tell them that the water usage is a myth & they can be made without noise, and they'll change their position to something else.
Voters don't care at all about data centers. They care about AI. They're being told that AI might go rogue & that the AI might take their jobs.
The correct response from Democrats should be to hear their constituents and then to work to address the underlying concerns.
But the in-practice reality of banning data centers in the US means that the things voters actually care about like regulating AI & ensuring we redistribute the wealth created by it, become significantly harder.
The in-practice effect is that AI labs build data centers overseas, where it's harder to regulate them, harder to tax them, and nobody except the AI labs sees the economic value from them.
I believe Democrats have talked themselves into believing this works, just as Republicans talked themselves into tariffs, because they believe things that are inaccurate.
A common concern I hear is "AI is a bubble". The belief is that there is simply no ROI to these data center projects.
Democrats need to have a come to jesus moment here. First, you either get to believe that AI is going to go rogue or you get to believe it's useless and a bubble. It's not both.
It just is the case that AI is useful & has ROI. Anthropic has 80% margins. The AI solved millennium prize problems. If you do not believe this, and you are a congressional staffer, please DM me, I am happy to organize a visit to companies in San Francisco. We'll give you a ride in a self driving car and you can see how the AI is used all over the place in science & engineering.
It is also the case that there are meaningful risks and harms in AI. Democrats should understand that the AI industry is a meaningful partner. It is not asking saying "AI is dangerous" as a marketing ploy. Seriously. That does not make sense and you know it.
We must rebuild trust between DC & SF. Democrats should reignite the bond between liberalism and it's science & technology industries. Science & technology is not your enemy; it is the driving force of antipoverty, better healthcare, and for American progress.
Democrats & Republicans alike must stop filling their information spheres with voices that constantly make false predictions. Democrats, please understand that Ed Zitron & Timnit are considered the anti-vaxers of AI. Republicans, please understand that the VCs claiming to be experts in AI have consistently been wrong over and over. They'd be a lot richer if they were right.
It just is the case that Sama and Dario are not trying to end the world. These are people who you can work with. You almost could not ask for better organizations to be steering this technology. Are they perfect? Absolutely not. But they are fundamentally aligned with humanity & with America.
Democrats must learn the actual, factual realities of data center projects. There are definitely harms to be mitigated & we should mitigate them.
But there are equally tremendous benefits we must ensure land in the hands of the people. It must be the case that we tax these things and land the cash into a wide variety of pockets.
The average voter is not asking Democrats to swoop in & to construct a scenario in which people in SF and Malaysia get rich, but the rest of the country gets hollowed out. They are not asking for a scenario in which AI migrates outside of the regulatory domain of the United States & agents run loose causing chaos.
In order for Democrats to consistently win elections, they must be competent in helping the American people. The execution matters. The good must be done, not just said or prophesied.
Bahahahahahhaah
SpaceX looks to raise $40bn to buy Nvidia chips in financing led by Apollo ft.trib.al/AXTvVlK
Patrick Doyle retweeted
NEW: AI Spend FALLS in the latest Ramp AI Index.
Price cuts at the frontier, in addition to cheaper and more efficient models at standard and lite levels, are pushing down the cost of using AI.
Open source models remain <5% of business spend. This decline in spend is driven almost exclusively by competition between OpenAI + Anthropic.
Patrick Doyle retweeted
Data center lead times getting beyond control
As shared by Cushman & Wakefield / Hyundai Securities, it’s not down to GPUs or even memory.
- Copper, aluminum: ~4–10 weeks
- Most HVAC / chillers: ~15–30 weeks
- UPS, LV/MV switchgear: ~35–60 weeks
- Generators: up to ~100 weeks
- Pad-mounted transformers: up to ~115 weeks
One can construct building faster than getting the transformer that powers it.
#DataCenters #AIInfrastructure #SupplyChain
America coming back to making things was definitely not in the cards but WE ARE SO BACK
HISTORIC: We just approved the first-ever U.S. commercial small modular reactor construction permit, completed ahead of schedule in just 14 months, through efficient, safety-focused review. The future of advanced nuclear starts now. nrc.gov/about-nrc/news-relea… #NRCNews
Patrick Doyle retweeted
you are not building a software factory, you're building the way your company works together.
Patrick Doyle retweeted
SemiAnalysis: the value of megawatts is so high that a power plant pays for itself in 20 days of inference revenue
"As a quick reminder, the value of megawatts for end-users is skyrocketing. A power plant supporting an islanded 1GW IT datacenter typically costs ~$5B."
"In today's environment, inference API revenue can yield $100B per GW per year, at 90%+ gross margins."
"Paying 2x more money or accepting 30% lower efficiency for faster speed of deployment becomes a no-brainer."
"Said differently, Anthropic and its peers can pay back the value of a power plant in 20 days of inference revenue."
_______
Link to article: newsletter.semianalysis.com/…
SemiAnalysis predicts OpenAI and Anthropic may stop selling API access to their best models
"Given recent security incidents and general worries about increasingly powerful AI, it is extremely likely that frontier model usage will only become more restricted from here."
"In fact, we believe it’s plausible OpenAI/Anthropic will eventually stop offering API access entirely for their most capable models."
"Open source seems like the obvious solution to all these dependency concerns, but it’s far from a silver bullet."
"First, all the “open source” licenses are starting to become increasingly restrictive. As just one example, any “model as a service business” making over $20M a year must negotiate a separate agreement with Moonshot to serve Kimi K3."
"Second, just because a lab open sources their models today doesn’t guarantee they’ll continue doing so in the future."
_____
Link: open.substack.com/pub/semian…
Patrick Doyle retweeted
Jane Street signs ~$13B AI cloud deal with Crusoe
The 5-year agreement will give Jane Street access to advanced GPU clusters for AI training and inference.
Jane Street has also committed roughly $6B to CoreWeave cloud services and invested another $1B in $CRWV.
Crusoe is separately seeking around $3B at a ~$30B valuation, with the Jane Street deal reportedly helping attract investor interest. - Bloomberg
Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027.
This is harder than just finding power, as you also need to build out all the transformers, wiring, liquid-cooling, (massive) chillers & complex networking. grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_4f06…
Patrick Doyle retweeted
Two days out. Steel & Silicon LA, this Wednesday, aboard the USS Iowa.
We build modular data centers on a line, at rate. We're hiring the engineers who know what that takes. Founders and hiring managers in the room.
Sept 2 | Los Angeles
Apply: luma.com/sfy1kfp5
Patrick Doyle retweeted
Regret the tone of my post on data centers yesterday.
What I should have said:
There were reasonable concerns about data centers 18ish months ago: water, taxes, jobs, electricity prices, the environment and what they would do to small towns. Well-structured data center projects have largely addressed these concerns today and we should be celebrating this.
On balance, data centers are awesome for America in every way.
On water: U.S. data centers use a fraction of what golf courses use. A lot of the numbers from 18 months ago were off by over 1000x. Newer data centers use closed-loop systems or recycled water. Should be required by every town approving a data center project.
On taxes: looking only at sales-tax exemptions, as Ronan Farrow did, is the wrong way to evaluate this. Data centers pay significant property taxes. Loudoun County, which is the wealthiest county in America, now collects on the order of $1 billion a year from data centers. In Quincy, WA, data centers are more than half the property-tax roll. Over time, property taxes can go to zero while government spending increases in these towns.
On jobs: this has been unambiguously awesome for blue collar Americans. Demand for electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC techs, and contractors has gone vertical, and it is not a one-time construction job. These buildings get upgraded and expanded over time. That is why the building trades are fighting for them, and why some unions are now treating opposition to data centers as a reason not to endorse politicians.
On power: the original fear was that households would pay for the incremental electricity demand in the form of higher prices. That is why the ratepayer-protection deals and the new large-load tariffs exist. The right structure is: the data center brings or pays for new generation and signs a contract long enough that existing customers are protected. Where that is happening, utilities are cutting or freezing residential rates and saying so on the record. Where it is not, people are right to object. Electricity prices are going down *today* in a number of large states because of data centers.
On the environment: data centers overwhelming use natural gas today, which is the cleanest power source outside of nuclear, solar and wind. And the companies that are building the data centers are committed to carbon neutrality such that an equivalent amount of solar will likely be built. Maybe more importantly, the data centers need batteries to function effectively and these batteries can also sell energy back into the grid (which recently prevented blackouts in Texas). Over time, data centers will run on solar plus batteries.
On the towns: Poverty in Quincy, WA fell from 29% to 6%. Data center taxes paid for a new high school, a hospital, a library, police and fire stations. This is happening in many left for dead former mill and farm towns that had no other bidder for the land.
Data centers are actually reindustrializing parts of America and creating the kind of working-class jobs both parties have spent decades claiming to support. That should not be a partisan issue. Data centers can and should be awesome for America and they increasingly, overwhelmingly are. Supporting the outsourcing of data centers to China will likely age just as well as support for the outsourcing of high quality, blue collar manufacturing jobs to China has aged.
When the facts change, I change my mind. I hope that reasonable people who had good faith reasons to oppose data centers at least consider updating their beliefs given the change in the facts over the last 18 months. This really matters for America.
I will say I also think the idea of making data centers beautiful is a good one that has yet to be implemented. Data centers should be just as beautiful as Grand Central Station. We can learn a lot from the railroad buildout. Neoclassical revival ftw.
Might write up open-weight AI tomorrow as this is equally essential to America.
Patrick Doyle retweeted
Fluidstack is hiring the team that will design and build modular data center infrastructure in-house. Data centers take years to build because each one is a construction project. We're engineering them as factory products instead, built on a line in Phoenix, so a data center comes together in months.
Structural Engineer, Modular R&D
Electrical Engineer, Modular R&D
Mechanical Engineer, Modular R&D
Designer & Detailer (Electrical/Controls)
Designer & Detailer (Mechanical/Structural)
BOM Coordinator, Modular R&D
Plant Manager
fluidstack.io/careers
Patrick Doyle retweeted
"Jevons Paradox is real: token prices have declined but compute prices have remained elevated, suggesting that there is a huge increase in demand for inference as token prices decline."
Citadel Securities via @patrick_saner
Patrick Doyle retweeted
At Fluidstack, we're building our own shipyard, but instead of Liberty ships, we're deploying supercomputers for frontier labs, hyperscalers, and sovereigns at gigawatt scale.
If you're a builder and want to join us, apply at fluidstack.io/jobs View article
People betting the memory cycle is unwound by CXMT entering the chat in the West should pay attention to the Trump admin looking to ban sensitive components in data centers from China. How memory would be allowed but not networking is interesting
reuters.com/world/trump-admi…
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