Unmormonlike conduct

The Catholics of France aren't having the easiest time these days. Pretty cool gesture of support by the NFL...uh...setting up a Hail Mary activation at Notre Dame

The tweet created lofty expectations, did the comments deliver? Yes.

Damn you Occam's razor

That's mostly, but not completely, true.

I AM NOW IN THE WASTE MANAGEMENT BUSINESS: Do you live in the great state of Oregon? Do you have a (legal) betting account that's useless because it's limited to pennies? DM me/email PlusEVAnalytics at outlook. I will help you recycle your junk account, we'll both make money.

Cc @samschwartz71

Under my definition, the volume of this bet is $2. xitter.cf/retardedgambler/status…

Proposed solution to the "how to measure PM volume" issue: Say I bet $1 against your $99; that is, 100 contracts trade at a price of 1 cent (or 99 cents, same thing) Implied probability of cash flows: 1% chance that $99 changes hands, 99% chance that $1 changes hands. Then, volume = 1% x $99 + 99% x $1 = $1.98. More generally, Volume = 2 x number of contracts traded x trade price x (1 - trade price). The price x (1 - price) construct is how many PMs calculate fees so there's a nice synergy there.

I've told lots of insurance executives that I'm terrified of underwriting cyber insurance because you have no idea what the next threat is going to be, where it's going to come from or how many policyholders will be impacted simultaneously. Most of them looked at me like I was from Mars.

The upside of the AI threat to humanity is you gotta think we'll get a resolution one way or the other to the whole "does God exist" thing

Don't get me started on them

I kept trying to tell them, you can't trust elves

So you think they're surprised that the public is reacting negatively to this?

Don't be stupid. It's a binary outcome so the uncertainty in the same on both sides.

It seems like the strategy for DK Predictions is to behave so recklessly that it kamikazes the whole PM industry. I kinda like it.

Interesting. I always use an API odds provider to do a sweep of FD SGP quotes against my model and find the best ones so I can bet them manually and I always notice I get better odds than the API does for the same combos. Always chalked it up to better pricing in Ontario vs whatever jurisdiction the provider was quoting but maybe not.

U better lawyer up

Unless I have info that the model doesn't (which was my original point about context), I'd prefer 51% +/- anything to 49% +/- anything

Cool angle here. I talked about this kind of correlated parlay opportunity in my Bet Bash talk where there's a shared hidden generator (minutes played). @CalvinAndHobo took it a step further by capturing inverse correlation between blocks/fouls and between fouls/minutes. Nice!