Founder & Principal | Bowes Strategy & Analytics Political Analyst/Campaign Consultant focused on improving GOP campaign strategy and GOTV initiatives
Joined September 2025
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Chase Bowes retweeted
If El-Sayed only winds up with 47% of the Black Vote in Michigan then goodnight the lights, he has no chance.
That's why Obama went up there... But it is worse than I thought.
47% is abysmal for a Democrat.
Chase Bowes retweeted
Chase's election forecasts are second to none.
That's why he's been my go-to source for data analysis.
Chase Bowes retweeted
Bongino Rule on the ad featuring Amy Acton's mother.
There may be more to that story and it looks like Acton and her mother haven't seen each other for nearly 50 years.
Hold.
Chase Bowes retweeted
Low prop voters breaking Republican is a great sign and a big reason why I support voting early
Chase Bowes retweeted
The GOP can still hold the Senate and even perform BETTER than Chase's forecast
WE JUST HAVE TO SHOW UP!
NOBODY STAYS HOME!
*Just a live, data-driven forecast, NOT A POLL*
U.S. Senate Forecast: October 15, 2026
🔴GOP: 52 Seats (-1)
🔵DEMS: 48 Seats (+1)
🔵 DEM Flips: 1
North Carolina
🔴GOP Flips: 0
Key Rating Changes (From Sept 7):
Alaska: 🔵->🔴
Michigan: 🔴->🔵
Margins (States under 15%):
Alaska: 🔴+ 2.4
Florida: 🔴+ 11.1
Georgia: 🔵+ 9.4
Iowa: 🔴+ 4.1
Kansas: 🔴+ 4.4
Maine: 🔴+ 4.1
Michigan: 🔵+ 1.3
Minnesota: 🔵+ 3.3
Mississippi: 🔴+ 9.7
Montana: 🔴+ 12.7
Nebraska: 🔴+ 9.2
New Hampshire: 🔵+ 2.9
North Carolina: 🔵+ 9.0 (FLIP)
Ohio: 🔴+ 2.6
South Carolina: 🔴+ 4.9
Texas: 🔴+ 0.2
Chase Bowes retweeted
Campaigns love it when you vote early.
No, it does NOT "give Democrats the numbers they need"
Read this from Chase... He's actually running four campaigns and is speaking from first hand experience.
Vote early if you can. If you don't want to, that's your choice. But at least consider it.
It helps campaigns more than you realize!
Activists like @PolPredictions and @ScottPresler are massive assets to our movement!
As someone who manages campaigns and is currently running FOUR campaign ground-games in my county, PLEASE go vote early.
Voting early helps campaigns redirect resources to the low-propensity base and allows us to knock a door or send a text that we might have not been able to get to if we're still waiting on our high-propensity voters to get to the polls.
If you hate having people come to your door or a candidate texting you, GO VOTE!! And bring 10 friends!! It takes 5-10 minutes. Get it done!!!
Chase Bowes retweeted
Well... If Talarico was indeed *NOT* in the mental health facility in Ohio then the campaign should, at this point, prove that with concrete evidence.
Yes there will be people who say the evidence is fake but that will always happen with any story.
I'm still very skeptical of the whole "mental health" scandal but I also find it strange that the campaign hasn't shut the whole thing down with concrete proof at this point.
There's no doubt that the ball is in their court. Now we see what they do with it.
I remain open to all possibilities.
Chase Bowes retweeted
WISCONSIN POLL - Governor
🟦 David Crowley: 49%
🟥 Tom Tiffany: 46%
Marquette (A) | 9/16-23 | LV
Chase Bowes retweeted
Maine Senate Poll by NYT/Siena (A+) | recalled: Harris 48-38
🟥 Susan Collins: 49%
🟦 Troy Jackson: 46%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 Dem: 52%
🟥 GOP: 44%
——
Net Favs
🟢 Collins: +3
🟤 Jackson: -8
🟤 Hassan Piker: -15
🔴 Platner: -43
——
9/15-22 | 619 LV
Chase Bowes retweeted
NEW YORK POLL By Siena (A)
Governor
🟦 Hochul (i): 50% (+1)
🟥 Blakeman: 41% (+2)
June poll - Hochul +20
——
Attorney General
🟦 James (i): 52% (-2)
🟥 Komatireddy: 39% (+3)
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 51% (-3)
🟥 GOP: 40% (+2)
D48/R30 | 9/11-17 | (+/- vs Aug) | LV
sri.siena.edu/2026/09/23/sie…
Chase Bowes retweeted
🚨 UPDATE — Missouri’s 2025 7R–1D congressional districts are back in effect for November after a federal judge intervened, shortly after Justice Kavanaugh declined to do so in a separate case.
Chase Bowes retweeted
I have FINALLY updated midtermcheatsheet.com just in time for @PolPredictions to join the show tomorrow morning and discuss his updated analysis for November. Make sure to tune in at 9am EST at Rumble.com/MisfitUncensored and don’t forget to join sway.co/misfits to help us win the midterms and Save America.
Chase Bowes retweeted
Don't fall for the helpless "the midterms are over it's a blue wave" nonsense.
There won't be a blue wave if we show up. It's that simple.
NOBODY STAYS HOME.
“Stop assuming there's going to be a GOP Bloodbath during the midterms”- @Shawn_Farash
Chase Bowes retweeted
Chase is also a data analyst... NOT A POLLSTER.
And a personal friend of mine whom I hold in high regard.
Chase Bowes retweeted
Chase Bowes is a Republican... But he doesn't let that bias bleed into his analysis.
He has a track record of accuracy.
His forecasts are a sober reminder that nothing is set in stone and losing the House this November is on the table.
None of us, Chase included, want that to happen. So let's get together and drive people to the polls to prevent it from happening, instead of lashing out because the forecast isn't what you want to hear.
