Predictable with Stu is a smarter, more useful way to get the news, using prediction markets to break down what’s happening, why it’s happening and what's next.

Joined January 2026
A new edition of Stu’s Picks is live! Check out @StuDoesAmerica latest prediction market picks and where he sees value ahead of the midterm elections. Link: predictable.substack.com/p/s…
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UPDATE: Prediction market odds have James Talarico at 65% in the Texas Senate race, compared to 35% for Ken Paxton.
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Either the market knows something the polls do not, or Texas money is doing what Texas money always does. Eight days to find out which.
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JUST IN: Democratic Senate candidates in Texas and Kansas are putting their Christian faith at the center of their campaigns. James Talarico and Adam Hamilton are testing a strategy aimed at reaching religious voters in two traditionally Republican states, per Axios.
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NEW: Senate control could come down to candidates party leaders didn't want. Both John Thune and Chuck Schumer are navigating five Senate races where party establishments believed alternative nominees would have been stronger contenders, per Axios.
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PredictableShow retweeted
A new edition of Stu’s Picks is live! Check out @StuDoesAmerica latest prediction market picks and where he sees value ahead of the midterm elections. Link: predictable.substack.com/p/s…
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica reacts to a heated moment involving Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed during a recent debate and weighs in on the exchange.
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NEWS: At an Iowa rally, President Trump called for Rep. Ilhan Omar to resign, claiming she used a “fake name” when sworn into Congress. He pointed to a federal court filing identifying her as “Ilhan Nur Said Elmi (aka) Ilhan Abdullahi Omar” in a matter tied to an ongoing investigation into her immigration records. The filing lists both names but does not itself establish that she committed fraud; Omar’s spokesperson says Ilhan Omar is her real name, and Omar denies wrongdoing.
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JUST IN: Elon Musk has reportedly invested roughly $1 billion in Skydance, the parent company of CNN and CBS News, giving him an ownership stake in the media giant, per Reuters.
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The Milwaukee Brewers host the Tampa Bay Rays in World Series Game 1 tonight, with both teams chasing their first championship in franchise history. Milwaukee is starting Jacob Misiorowski, while Tampa Bay is sending Nick Martinez to the mound and saving ace Drew Rasmussen for Game 2. Polymarket’s series-winner market currently puts the Brewers at about 64% and the Rays at 36%.
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica and @DanAndros discuss the Philadelphia 76ers' win total and whether there's value in trading on over 60 wins this NBA season.
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NEW: The Supreme Court temporarily paused a lower-court order that let New Hampshire election officials consider student IDs as supporting evidence when verifying a voter’s identity. The state had removed student IDs from its list of expressly accepted voter IDs, and the Court’s stay means they cannot be used as backup identification at the polls this November while the appeal proceeds. The Court did not issue a final ruling on the law’s legality. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson publicly dissented.
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L. Louise Lucas, a longtime Virginia state senator and one of the state’s most powerful Democrats, has been indicted along with six others in a federal case involving an alleged marijuana distribution and money-laundering scheme. Prosecutors allege Lucas used her political influence to protect the operation and benefit its finances. Lucas surrendered to authorities and says she will fight the charges; she is not on the ballot this November.
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Senate Fantasy is here! 🏛️ Draft your team, pick your MVP, and compete for a $2,500 first-place prize! It’s completely FREE to play. Entries close November 2. Get started: senatefantasy.com
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NEW: Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy predicts Republicans will lose control of the House in November, citing historical midterm trends and criticizing current GOP leadership, per Politico.
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica and @DanAndros react to JD Vance's criticism of WNBA players walking out during the national anthem and discuss the controversy surrounding the league.
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PredictableShow retweeted
TUNE IN: @PredictableShow with @StuDoesAmerica airs at 9pm ET on The First TV. DIRECTV, Samsung TV Plus, Pluto TV, fuboTV, The First TV app and TheFirstTV.com/watch
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