Predictable with Stu is a smarter, more useful way to get the news, using prediction markets to break down what’s happening, why it’s happening and what's next.

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Former President Barack Obama hit the campaign trail in Detroit, rallying support for Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed as Democrats look to shore up Black voter support ahead of Election Day. Obama also targeted President Trump, criticizing his handling of the economy, tariffs, and the war in Iran. With control of Congress on the line, Michigan is shaping up to be a key battleground.
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PredictableShow retweeted
Troy Jackson has a 61% chance to beat Susan Collins in the Maine Senate race, according to Kalshi traders. But how does the volume split on Troy Jackson differ by state? • All Americans: 61% • Mainers: 36% • Non-Mainers: 61%
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The Senate Fantasy League is still open! Make your picks for the 2026 Senate races and compete for a $2,500 first-place prize. Entry is free, and picks must be submitted by November 2nd. Senatefantasy.com
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Where does Ohio’s gubernatorial race stand?
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Replying to @Kalshi
Newsom back on top of the 2028 board at 15 percent, which tells you less about Newsom and more about how wide open that field is. When the favorite is sitting at 15, everybody is still alive and nobody should be planning a cabinet yet.
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Replying to @Kalshi
It is low enough to be a joke and high enough that someone, somewhere, is absolutely buying it.
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Replying to @Kalshi
price is not a prediction carved in stone, it is just where the money sits right now. Brazil sat at 80 yesterday. Remember that before you load up on Tuesday.
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UPDATE: Prediction market odds have James Talarico at 65% in the Texas Senate race, compared to 35% for Ken Paxton.
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JUST IN: Democratic Senate candidates in Texas and Kansas are putting their Christian faith at the center of their campaigns. James Talarico and Adam Hamilton are testing a strategy aimed at reaching religious voters in two traditionally Republican states, per Axios.
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NEW: Senate control could come down to candidates party leaders didn't want. Both John Thune and Chuck Schumer are navigating five Senate races where party establishments believed alternative nominees would have been stronger contenders, per Axios.
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PredictableShow retweeted
A new edition of Stu’s Picks is live! Check out @StuDoesAmerica latest prediction market picks and where he sees value ahead of the midterm elections. Link: predictable.substack.com/p/s…
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica reacts to a heated moment involving Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed during a recent debate and weighs in on the exchange.
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A new edition of Stu’s Picks is live! Check out @StuDoesAmerica latest prediction market picks and where he sees value ahead of the midterm elections. Link: predictable.substack.com/p/s…
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NEWS: At an Iowa rally, President Trump called for Rep. Ilhan Omar to resign, claiming she used a “fake name” when sworn into Congress. He pointed to a federal court filing identifying her as “Ilhan Nur Said Elmi (aka) Ilhan Abdullahi Omar” in a matter tied to an ongoing investigation into her immigration records. The filing lists both names but does not itself establish that she committed fraud; Omar’s spokesperson says Ilhan Omar is her real name, and Omar denies wrongdoing.
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JUST IN: Elon Musk has reportedly invested roughly $1 billion in Skydance, the parent company of CNN and CBS News, giving him an ownership stake in the media giant, per Reuters.
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The Milwaukee Brewers host the Tampa Bay Rays in World Series Game 1 tonight, with both teams chasing their first championship in franchise history. Milwaukee is starting Jacob Misiorowski, while Tampa Bay is sending Nick Martinez to the mound and saving ace Drew Rasmussen for Game 2. Polymarket’s series-winner market currently puts the Brewers at about 64% and the Rays at 36%.
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica and @DanAndros discuss the Philadelphia 76ers' win total and whether there's value in trading on over 60 wins this NBA season.
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NEW: The Supreme Court temporarily paused a lower-court order that let New Hampshire election officials consider student IDs as supporting evidence when verifying a voter’s identity. The state had removed student IDs from its list of expressly accepted voter IDs, and the Court’s stay means they cannot be used as backup identification at the polls this November while the appeal proceeds. The Court did not issue a final ruling on the law’s legality. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson publicly dissented.
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L. Louise Lucas, a longtime Virginia state senator and one of the state’s most powerful Democrats, has been indicted along with six others in a federal case involving an alleged marijuana distribution and money-laundering scheme. Prosecutors allege Lucas used her political influence to protect the operation and benefit its finances. Lucas surrendered to authorities and says she will fight the charges; she is not on the ballot this November.
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Senate Fantasy is here! 🏛️ Draft your team, pick your MVP, and compete for a $2,500 first-place prize! It’s completely FREE to play. Entries close November 2. Get started: senatefantasy.com
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