Prediction markets intelligence desk. Access real-time alerts on Telegram: @Predictbook.
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💻 Anthropic’s IPO valuation expectations have cooled, but Polymarket traders remain bullish on its stock-market debut.
A market cap of $1.75T–$2T at the close of its first trading day is the leading range at 32%.
The company’s S-1 showed first-half 2026 revenue of $16.3B, up from $1.2B a year earlier, while its operating loss narrowed to $693M.
$100 on Serbia’s Student List a week before the result would have returned $317.46.
YES shares were trading at 31.5¢ on October 19. Here’s how that week unfolded.
🇮🇱 Israel is voting, and Polymarket favors Gadi Eisenkot to become prime minister. But the outcome will also depend on coalition talks.
The former IDF chief has a 62% chance, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 24% and Naftali Bennett at 9%.
Pre-election polling left neither bloc assured of a parliamentary majority, making smaller parties crucial to negotiations that could take weeks.
Our analyst @Journalancer examines Eisenkot market lead and the obstacles to forming the next government.
According to Polymarket traders, the Milwaukee Brewers have about a 97% chance of winning the 2026 World Series.
According to Polymarket traders, there is about a 93% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged at this week’s meeting, with roughly a 7% chance of a 25 bps hike.
According to Polymarket traders, Gadi Eizenkot has about a 63% chance of becoming Israel’s next prime minister, while Benjamin Netanyahu sits near 24%.
🇺🇸 Trump is rallying behind Cindy Hyde-Smith. Obama is backing Scott Colom. Mississippi’s Senate race is drawing national attention.
Polymarket gives Republican Hyde-Smith an 87% chance of reelection, versus 14% for Democrat Colom. A Change Research poll puts voter support much closer: 43% for Hyde-Smith and 40% for Colom.
On Kalshi 35% chance no one is the Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election.
JUST IN: S&P Dow Jones Indices is teaming up with Kalshi to build prediction-market indices.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will develop benchmarks composed of event contracts. Potential themes include political power, supply-chain risks, AI’s impact on employment and weather.
CEO Tarek Mansour says future products based on these indices could offer diversified exposure to real-world events and new ways to hedge their impact.
