Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta) header
Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta) profile picture

Assistant Professor of Political Science at Brown. Tweets about politics of Race and Criminal Justice. Occasional cat photos.

Providence, RI
Joined September 2017
Photo by Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta)Photo by Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta)Photo by Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta)Photo by Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta)Photo by Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta)Photo by Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta)Photo by Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta)Photo by Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta)Photo by Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta)Photo by Paul Testa (@ProfPaulTesta)
What do elites want from the foreign aid they receive? Conjoint experiment in 141 countries w/ @samanthajcuster and Phil Roessler, now online @AJPS_Editor onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
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Election narratives, meet data analysis 🔍 Our team at @ucla_vrp is breaking down election night trends, and this is just the beginning. Stay tuned for more insights—follow us to stay informed. 🗳️📊 #Election2024
The Exit Polls are a survey with sampling bias and large margins of error. Our analysis of actual precinct data reveals Latino vote was about 5-7 pts less Dem than 2020 but still well over 60% for Harris, in some instances 67% or 70% in favor of Harris. Our receipts:
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Paul Testa retweeted
Worth remembering before the blame-game gets too personal: "Democrats join 2024’s graveyard of incumbents", @jburnmurdoch ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300… via @ft
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Decided to go through this systematically. Incumbent government performance in wealthy democracies since March 2022, when Ukraine invasion really spiked things upwards: 🧵
Is there any incumbent, anywhere in the world, who hasn’t suffered a major voter repudiation if standing for election since the post-COVID inflation surge?
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My initial take on Trump's win: goodauthority.org/news/where… His gains were widespread, so explanations should start with the broadest factors -- not with bespoke stories about states, cities, counties, and groups. The simplest explanation: party of unpopular incumbent loses. 1/2
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I don't have many strong and informed opinions, but when it comes to PoC politics, that's one exception because I study them. Lots of ill takes here on PoC & the election. Rather than criticize, let me provide some evidence-based input on the election and the preceding months🧵
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Nate's data is coming from this tracker from the @JECRepublicans. They don't have a state-level inflation estimate either, though. They just use BLS's estimate of regional inflation and apply it to an estimate of household spending when Biden took office. jec.senate.gov/public/index.…
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VERY excited to share "Seeing Racial Avoidance on New York City Streets" (w/ @melissaleesands) Just published in @NatureHumBehav (nature.com/articles/s41562-0…). Conduct field experiment on NYC sidewalks recording w/ traffic cameras to study racial avoidance. Thread below. #videoasdata
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Planning your visit to APSA? We have a few suggestions. Join our faculty as they explore hot topics on China, technology, economy, Africa and more! Take a peek...
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I've had many "final" moments with my dissertation this month, but this one is the most final: it is filed with the graduate school, and I am a doctor! Enormous thanks to my committee, @profwschiller, @ProfPaulTesta, and Susan Moffitt; and everyone at @BrownUPoliSci.
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Congratulations to the newly minted *Dr.* Rob Grace @RobMGrace, who completed a wonderful dissertation on humanitarian access in civil wars, and when that access is obstructed. Keep an eye on him! HT @BrownUPoliSci @NinaTannenwald @ProfPaulTesta
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MT @profpaultesta: A new piece with @tarahwilliams01 today on how men can be advocates in the fight for women’s rights at the @monkeycageblog highlighting our work with @kyleebritzman & @matthibbing teapawt.net/monkeycageblog/status/…
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Why men can be advocates in the fight for women’s rights at the Monkey Cage today with @ProfPaulTesta highlighting our work with @kyleebritzman and @matthibbing @PRRIpoll
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I’ve written a textbook on improving your statistical inferences. It consists of the content I teach in workshops, and combines material from my MOOC’s, blog, and published work. It’s a free open educational resource: You can read it here: lakens.github.io/statistical…
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The single most undervalued fact of linear algebra: matrices are graphs, and graphs are matrices. Encoding matrices as graphs is a cheat code, making complex behavior simple to study. Let me show you how!
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“So feeling thermometers are just vibes?” — a great question from a student I received yesterday
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