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“Don’t let us win today” - Kevin Millar

California
Joined January 2020
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deebska retweeted
Cody Bellinger over Ceddanne Rafaela?! Yea this award means nothing.
Your 2026 Platinum Glove Award Winners Pete Crow-Armstrong & Cody Bellinger!
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I doubt many fully appreciate the magnitude of what is being reported in this piece. First off, it is 100% accurate and as a large owner of this type of product I can confirm from first hand experience that this is exactly what is happening. Lenders are arguably the most rational economic actors and their decision to flee the affordable housing market is a direct result of conditions on the ground. The situation is absolutely dire - rents (and thus revenues) are frozen, the % of those revenues that are collectable has fallen dramatically (as a direct result of "tenant protection" policies), and costs are growing at a rate substantially above inflation. On top of it all, interest rates have risen 400bps+ over the past few years further constricting available cash flow critical to operate these buildings. The net result of absolutely horrendous government policy has been to choke off critical cash necessary to operate affordable housing for the most vulnerable populations in the city. Yes, the landlords get hurt, which I'm sure will make many happy. But much worse off are all the affordable tenants that continue to see the quality of their housing crumble, as well as those desperately in need of housing that are unable to find it because developing, owning and operating these assets (whether for-profit or not-for-profit) has become economically impossible.
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This only scratches the surface. Medicaid and Medicare fraud it the tip of the iceberg. Just one example: There is multi-generational fraud in a number of ethnic communities. I was a fraud examiner after my military career and my partner, a nurse turned lawyer, and I found over 800 Medicaid fraud cases in less than 2 years (in 2013/14). Our threshold per case filing was $500K and we had dozens of cases over $5M in the aggregate. Guess how many of the cases the affected states took action on: 2. And Medicare was just as bad, but no Federal District Attorney under Obama would take a fraud case, especially if it was an immigrant or indigenous American Indian. I finally quit after banging my head against the government brick wall for 10 years. One of my last cases was identifying false "Blue Zones", which is a Demographic term (often co-opted by epidemiologists for what is typically called "supercentenarian clusters") for pockets of populations with a larger number than average folks that were 100 year old or older. We found areas in California, Texas, Colorado and Arizona where certain ethnic groups had sizable Blue Zones that were 6-25X higher than any ever recorded on the planet. It took only one case to break the code: an ethnic Chinese woman in NorCal was suing a hospital for giving her the wrong blood type during emergency surgery. We reviewed the records and after a single interview, we determined that she had assumed the ID (and medical history) of another Chinese immigrant who had passed away about 6 years previous. The original patient died at age 94, ostensibly making the fraudster 100 or 101. It was later determined that she was 58 or 59 years old. In addition to assuming the late patient's ID, she also assumed her Social Security payments as well as other benefits provided by the government, including food and housing. She paid 30% to a "community trust" which handled the fraud. She was offering to turn in others to avoid a lengthy jail term, but the State of California inexplicably dropped all the charges. Oh yeah, the patient that was suing wasn't the first generation of this fraud, she was the second. The original patient was believed to have passed away in 1989. Find any community that handles it's own deaths and burials and you will find the same thing. It happens on Indian reservations, in Chinese, East Asian and African communities. Normal at-home deaths are not reported to the state and the "community trusts" handle all burial and cremains repatriation. Another member of the community, usually illegal, but not always, assumes that person's ID and benefits; in many states, they will be admitted to an ethnically affiliated hospice care facility (on paper anyway) and that facility will get funds to care for a patient that only exists on paper. Rinse and repeat. We found one case in southern Arizona where one Native American man was carrying the IDs of six other men and collecting SS, VA, and various retirement pensions for all six of them. His was enrolled at 2 different hospices on Indian reservations 370 miles apart. His monthly payments were in excess of $36K and he got to keep half of that. We notified the State of Arizona and the local Congressional and Senate offices with no results and no action taken. And I have much worse examples. DOGE needs to be enshrined as a Cabinet-level position and we need biometric validation of everyone collecting federal or state benefits, as a start.
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There’s basically 50 million people paying for the other 300 million people to live, and at every level they’re mocked and derided for it.
it's always fun talking to people actually involved in municipal fiscal policy about the much derided childless 20something professionals...they pay taxes, they spend their money, they do not consume expensive, in-person services, they are the atlas holding us all up
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In light of Portland’s Royal Sonesta Hotel—bought in 2016 for $108.3M, and selling this week for a reported $6.83M, a 93% drop —I am re-upping my monograph “The Gloss of Good Intentions: How Portland Blew a Chance to Become the Next Great American City.” nancyrommelmann.substack.com…
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deebska retweeted
this California wealth tax thing is just incredible. so in October 2025, a California healthcare union proposed a "one time" 5% tax on any billionaire's wealth. the ballot measure will be voted on next month. In early December 2025, California announced that it would be a retroactive tax if passed, applying to anyone with CA residency as of Jan 1, 2026. The objective is to pay for Medi-Cal, California's incredibly dysfunctional healthcare system. (which also functions as a glorified welfare apparatus, but that's a discussion for another time). polls reveal that the CA electorate is split around 50/50 on the tax, but prediction markets only give Prop 40 a ~23% chance of passing (there are competing measures on the ballet that would nullify it). there are 200 billionaires in CA, worth collectively somewhere between $2.3 and $2.6 trillion. 5% of that is around $100b, accounting for a small amount of attrition. proponents of the tax forecasted a significant windfall, assuming only a 10% departure rate. supporters thought they were being clever with the retroactive concept. no billionares would leave CA in the few short months between the tax being proposed and the residency cutoff date, without the tax even having passed yet, right? well as it turns out, they did. a new paper [1] from two academics at Stanford called "The Net Present Value of the California Billionaire Tax Act", argues that not only did more billionaires leave due to the proposed tax than its proponents expected, but that the value of the tax, if it does pass, is actually negative. proponents of the tax only assumed 10% avoidance, that is, only 10% of the taxable base of targeted billionaires would leave CA within the very short Oct-Dec 2025 window. Jaros and Rauh, the Stanford academics, find that a lower bound of 28.6% of the taxable base managed to leave. just based on known departures, those departures total $577b in net worth, or $28.8b in potential tax lost. this of course does not capture everyone (many left without announcing their departure), so the authors normalize to departure rates estimated from other wealth tax events, and apply other discounts for litigation, arriving arrive at a figure of only $28-$36b in forecasted tax revenues. but this isn't all! all of the income taxes paid by the departed billionaires are also forsaken. the authors estimate that CA billionaires pay $3.3- 5.8b in annual income taxes. they assume a midpoint of $2b lost in annual collections from departed billionaires. the net present value of that lost income stream is -$68.9 billion. so when you add it all up you get: + $30b one-time tax windfall (estimated) - $69b in present value of lost future income taxes = - 38.9b overall net present value of the tax of course, this analysis is highly estimate driven. the authors simulate the parameters 100k times and find a negative NPV of the implemented tax 85 percent of the time. and if the tax doesn't pass, which it's not looking like it will, California still ended up losing at least $577b in departed net worth, and they have permanently poisoned the well with entrepreneurs who will now worry about future wealth taxes. [1]: nber.org/system/files/workin…
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🥷 How to Stay Anonymous On-chain🥷 One-time setup, lifetime peace of mind Today, Coinbase leaked customers’ names, addresses, account balances, phone numbers, emails, and government IDs. Two days ago, there was an attempted kidnapping of a French CEO’s daughter and her two-year-old. If you are involved in crypto, privacy is critical to your life, and this is not hyperbole. It's about your personal security, financial safety, and peace of mind. We've spent years pseudonymous - our own team only doxxes to governments when absolutely necessary. We take privacy seriously because, like you, we value our own. Fresh, Separate Wallets: Your on-chain anonymity relies on good wallet hygiene. Always use new wallets dedicated to specific platforms or purposes. The only direct connection between your identity and crypto should be the initial transfer from an exchange. Privacy Services: After transferring funds from an exchange, obfuscate your transactions either through privacy coins or exchange services to remove the direct link to your personal identity. Look for ones that are allowed in your jurisdictions. Track these transactions for your taxes and personal records VPN (Mullvad): Mullvad doesn't ask for personal info, no emails, phone numbers, or identifiable information needed. Pay anonymously with crypto. Privacy-focused Browser (Brave): Brave offers built-in ad-blocking, tracker protection, and fingerprinting resistance. It's a small change with big upside. Basically a more private chrome browser. Secure DNS (1.1.1.1 by Cloudflare): Encrypt your DNS queries to prevent your ISP and other third parties from tracking and linking your internet activity. Password Managers (Bitwarden, 1Password, not lastpass): Use a secure, encrypted password manager. Strong, unique passwords are your first line of defense. Add 2fa for even better protection Hardware Wallets (Ledger, Trezor): Keep your private keys offline. Hot wallets should be reserved only for small amounts or frequent transactions. Email Privacy (ProtonMail or Tutanota): Create a dedicated, encrypted email address for crypto activities. Reduces personal info leaks and isolates crypto from personal life. Be careful what you post: If you ever posted a picture of an NFT on chain, I can find your wallet address and map every wallet it’s interacted with. Posting even one NFT can tie your wallet to your real-life identity permanently. In crypto you are your own bank. It’s a powerful freedom, but it demands responsibility. Bookmark this guide, spend 1-2 hours and do at minimum the above. It’s low effort, high yield. Set these up once, and you've already taken your default privacy from zero to one, putting you ahead of 99% of people in crypto. 🪦🪦🪦
Cyber criminals bribed and recruited rogue overseas support agents to pull personal data on <1% of Coinbase MTUs. No passwords, private keys, or funds were exposed. Prime accounts are untouched. We will reimburse impacted customers. More here: coinbase.com/blog/protecting…
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The overall weighted-average tariff is 29%. The highest in over 100 years. Bigger than Smoot-Hawley.
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March VVIP Champions: The Inner Circle It pays to be a big degen. Today we're sending out $25,000.00 USDC to our small group of VVIPs
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🔥 TOWER GENERATION EVENT 🔥 They built castles to protect what was valuable. They built towers to see what was coming. We built ours for an entirely different reason. ⛨ To let you climb ⛨ Post address for free plays
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Trust Generates Excitement. TGE March 22nd.
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The ad was bad, and it’s still gnawing at my soul. I am ashamed I downplayed it instead of just calling it what it is - mean and punching down on a marginalized group. I am grateful for the ecosystem devs and artists that immediately called it what it is both publicly and privately. You are the only silver lining to this whole mess. I’ll do whatever I can to make sure solana foundation stays focused on its mission of decentralization and open source software development and out of culture wars.
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ATTENTION SOLANA CREATORS We're giving away a stupid amount (+$100,000) for our upcoming launch on March 22nd Looking for EXCLUSIVE PARTNERS to help distribute these funds to the community → Limited partner slots available → Your followers get exclusive access → No risk for your community DM us if you have a following and want to be part of this. First come, first serve.
They say that the ancient towers were built to reach the heavens. That within their walls lay treasures guarded by creatures of myth and legend Knights would scale the steps, facing peril at every turn All for the chance at glory.
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They say that the ancient towers were built to reach the heavens. That within their walls lay treasures guarded by creatures of myth and legend Knights would scale the steps, facing peril at every turn All for the chance at glory.
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deebska retweeted
Happy 5th birthday Solana fam! 🥳 408+ billion transactions. 1,300+ validators. $987+ billion volume. Thank you to all the relentless founders, devs, and nCMOs around the globe who have made Solana what it is today — 5 years in, we're just getting started 🎊
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We've been building on Solana since 2021. DCF was created to show off what's possible on chain, and to bring something fun to the ecosystem. We weathered storms and declined offers to build elsewhere because we believed in the ecosystem. Millions of plays and a presidential memecoin launch later, it's proven to be the right choice. Throw back to when our events could be seen in the TPS candles. We've come a long way! Happy birthday @solana
Happy 5th birthday Solana fam! 🥳 408+ billion transactions. 1,300+ validators. $987+ billion volume. Thank you to all the relentless founders, devs, and nCMOs around the globe who have made Solana what it is today — 5 years in, we're just getting started 🎊
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Alright. I’m home. $1M spent. Aped a mix of $FWOG, $UFD, $ARC, $FXN, $SPERG, $AI16Z, $MAJOR & $T3AI GN fam
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8.88 is the hack
恭喜發財, 利是逗來! It's lunar new year and to celebrate we're giving away 3 red envelopes with $888 each. 🧧 $888 in $JUP 🧧 $888 in $SOL 🧧 $888 in $WIF To enter, comment your address, tag a friend that's NGMI on their own and needs to win twitter giveaways
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