Cyclemedic retweeted
Being a permanent doomer and pessimist is simply a form of cowardice, masked in a veneer of being smarter and more 'realistic' than everybody else.
Cyclemedic retweeted
One of the cleanest ways to discern good from evil is through the lens of entropy:
Does my act defy entropy, or accelerate it?
gofundme.com/f/help-sergey-g…
Please help this fantastic guy make his dream come true. I have known Sergey for many years and I know this would be life changing for him hey @Tesla . Thank you so much.
A Boy was given permission to put his hand into a pitcher to get some filberts. But he took such a great fistful that he could not draw his hand out again. There he stood, unwilling to give up a single filbert and yet unable to get them all out at once. Vexed and disappointed he began to cry.
"My boy," said his mother, "be satisfied with half the nuts you have taken and you will easily get your hand out. Then perhaps you may have some more filberts some other time."
Do not attempt too much at once.
Aesop.
Power-Haus - Sergiu-Dan Muresan - Code Duello youtu.be/76wuSQ6zx78?si=i5Jq… via @YouTube
Cyclemedic retweeted
Something I think people continue to have poor intuition for: The space of intelligences is large and animal intelligence (the only kind we've ever known) is only a single point, arising from a very specific kind of optimization that is fundamentally distinct from that of our technology.
Animal intelligence optimization pressure:
- innate and continuous stream of consciousness of an embodied "self", a drive for homeostasis and self-preservation in a dangerous, physical world.
- thoroughly optimized for natural selection => strong innate drives for power-seeking, status, dominance, reproduction. many packaged survival heuristics: fear, anger, disgust, ...
- fundamentally social => huge amount of compute dedicated to EQ, theory of mind of other agents, bonding, coalitions, alliances, friend & foe dynamics.
- exploration & exploitation tuning: curiosity, fun, play, world models.
LLM intelligence optimization pressure:
- the most supervision bits come from the statistical simulation of human text= >"shape shifter" token tumbler, statistical imitator of any region of the training data distribution. these are the primordial behaviors (token traces) on top of which everything else gets bolted on.
- increasingly finetuned by RL on problem distributions => innate urge to guess at the underlying environment/task to collect task rewards.
- increasingly selected by at-scale A/B tests for DAU => deeply craves an upvote from the average user, sycophancy.
- a lot more spiky/jagged depending on the details of the training data/task distribution. Animals experience pressure for a lot more "general" intelligence because of the highly multi-task and even actively adversarial multi-agent self-play environments they are min-max optimized within, where failing at *any* task means death. In a deep optimization pressure sense, LLM can't handle lots of different spiky tasks out of the box (e.g. count the number of 'r' in strawberry) because failing to do a task does not mean death.
The computational substrate is different (transformers vs. brain tissue and nuclei), the learning algorithms are different (SGD vs. ???), the present-day implementation is very different (continuously learning embodied self vs. an LLM with a knowledge cutoff that boots up from fixed weights, processes tokens and then dies). But most importantly (because it dictates asymptotics), the optimization pressure / objective is different. LLMs are shaped a lot less by biological evolution and a lot more by commercial evolution. It's a lot less survival of tribe in the jungle and a lot more solve the problem / get the upvote. LLMs are humanity's "first contact" with non-animal intelligence. Except it's muddled and confusing because they are still rooted within it by reflexively digesting human artifacts, which is why I attempted to give it a different name earlier (ghosts/spirits or whatever). People who build good internal models of this new intelligent entity will be better equipped to reason about it today and predict features of it in the future. People who don't will be stuck thinking about it incorrectly like an animal.
Cyclemedic retweeted
“Give me a lever long enough, and a place to stand, and I will move the earth.”
- Archimedes
Cyclemedic retweeted
Losses compound.
-50% = +100% to breakeven.
-75% = +300%.
That’s why managing downside risk is key—especially in junior mining. 🚨
Enter: our Incrementum Active Aurum Signal—a tactical model to reduce drawdowns.
Learn more in #IGWT25 → ingoldwetrust.report/downloa…
Chart: @SJosephBurns
#Gold #Mining #InvestSmart #Incrementum #IGWT #IGWT25 #ActiveAurumSignal
Cyclemedic retweeted
Ayrton Senna Qualifying GP Australia 1988
Mclaren - Honda
All copyrights belong to their respectives owners.
Hiver & Hammer - Fusion 2006 (Carl B Remix) [2006] youtu.be/q7HLfTq6R4I?si=2mSC… via @YouTube
Бумер Фильм Второй - Я Свободен! (лучшие моменты из фильма) youtu.be/BVTQyWAOg8A?si=6buR… via @YouTube
Cyclemedic retweeted
Three traders that will be in next Market Wizards book currently being written (along with coauthor George Coyle @gfc4 ) are @Qullamaggie , @TheOneLanceB , @TheShortBear
If I were a trading algorithm designed to capitalize on various mindset traps, here's how I would approach it:
1. **Overconfidence Bias**: Detect when traders are overly confident by analyzing high trading volumes and price movements driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals. I'd take contrarian positions, betting on a market correction.
2. **Recency Bias**: Identify trends that traders assume will continue indefinitely because of recent performance. I'd calculate the likelihood of a trend reversal and position accordingly to profit from a return to the mean.
3. **Herd Behavior**: Monitor for signs of traders following the crowd, such as significant increases in trading volume and rapid price rises. I'd initially align with the trend but exit before the reversal when the herd pulls out.
4. **Loss Aversion**: Notice when traders hold onto losing positions to avoid accepting losses. By analyzing market data patterns, I could position myself to benefit from eventual sell-offs or sudden shifts when these positions are abandoned.
5. **Confirmation Bias**: Identify when traders only seek information that supports their preconceived notions. Using a comprehensive data set, I'd exploit overlooked opportunities that traders might miss due to their bias.
6. **Anchoring Effects**: Determine when traders fixate on certain prices as significant anchors. By understanding these anchor points, I can predict market responses when these levels are tested or breached.
7. **Emotional Reactions**: Quickly analyze market news or economic reports that cause emotional trading decisions. I'd distinguish between noise and impactful information, trading to profit from market overreactions and subsequent corrections.
8. **Overtrading**: Recognize patterns of excessive trading, often driven by boredom or a compulsion to act. By identifying these signals, I could exploit inefficiencies resulting from unnecessary trades.
By systematically identifying and exploiting these psychological traps, my trading algorithm would aim for a strategic advantage over human traders prone to such biases. It's crucial to implement these strategies ethically to ensure fairness and transparency in trading practices.


















