Randy Ellison (@RandyEllison) header
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Made in Nashville. Pollster at Targoz. Bleeding Dodger blue & UT orange. Fade your feelings, follow the data. Read more: https://teapawt.net/t.co/6MeqFJRDMS

Joined January 2009
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Randy Ellison retweeted
Red Baron vendor who schooled Instagram pranksters 'blown away' by $400K fundraiser trib.al/WPVlvQG
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Randy Ellison retweeted
Diving into the polling data on this question, we found: Only 5% of South Carolinians strongly support private equity and outside investment in law firms. 27% of people polled didn't have enough information to give their opinion.
NEW: Poll results show that 54% of South Carolina voters oppose allowing private equity investment into law firms
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Randy Ellison retweeted
American glass. American metal. American silicon. American batteries. American workers. American everything. BlueChip is the first American computer in decades. Don't let anyone lie to you and say it can't be done. Designed in California. Built in America.
BlueChip. Built in America. America made the first electronic computer to win a war. Now we depend on our greatest adversaries to build the computers that run our economy and defend our nation. Today, we bring it home.
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Tomorrow we release the full poll results! Stay tuned 👀
#BREAKING: New @scpolicycouncil poll gives insight in SC Senate, Gov race: SENATE Darline Graham - 47% Annie Andrews - 46% Other - 3% Undecided - 4% GOVERNOR Alan Wilson - 51% Jermaine Johnson - 41% Other - 2% Undecided - 5% (MOE +/- 3.21) Full poll released tomorrow.
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Randy Ellison retweeted
#BREAKING: New @scpolicycouncil poll gives insight in SC Senate, Gov race: SENATE Darline Graham - 47% Annie Andrews - 46% Other - 3% Undecided - 4% GOVERNOR Alan Wilson - 51% Jermaine Johnson - 41% Other - 2% Undecided - 5% (MOE +/- 3.21) Full poll released tomorrow.
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Randy Ellison retweeted
"Are we getting enough Republicans?" is the wrong question, historically speaking. Polls have always missed some segments of the population -- notably young and non-college. But it used to matter less because those people either didn't vote or were split between parties. Problem in the last ~10 yrs: Education polarization transformed a non-problem into a major problem that favors one side. We can weight up non-college to the correct proportion of the sample, but if the nonrespondents systematically differ from respondents (they do), we could be magnifying the impact of nonresponse. This is why I worry way more about Republican underestimates than Democratic ones -- it's not actually about the party. It's about populations we've never been good at capturing and which direction they lean.
I'm not sure what it would take to de-entrench the presumption that polls systematically underrate conservative parties or candidates. It's not true historically, but it's a cheapie take that will never really get you criticized. web.archive.org/web/20170423…
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Randy Ellison retweeted
You know why I'm so mad about this? I've been a pollster for 20 years, but I'm under a new company name (my own). You people make it so much harder for REAL people like me to get traction when we do everything right. Shame on you.
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Randy Ellison retweeted
Today is the official release date for my new book, First Among Equals: Visions of Equality before Egalitarianism (Belknap, 2026). It explores how and why “equality” became, rather suddenly, a basis on which ordinary men and women could make political demands in early modern England. hup.harvard.edu/books/978067…
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Randy Ellison retweeted
There is a lot of action today in the world of early voting. A big one is that in person early voting (IPEV) has started in Florida in certain counties (34 out of 67). What is fun about Florida is that we get live updates on who is voting in real time. The other big one is of course Texas. We don't get as much information or detailed like we do Florida, but we will get enough to have a sense of what is going on. And of course those states that already started are still going on (Looking at you North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, etc.). These next two weeks are the most intense in terms of data, so keeping up will be a challenge but always remember to look at the overall trends. Here is a summary of the state of things in my opinion: Democrats have come out the gate fast and have created leads in states that they would like to see. This week is about seeing if Republicans are going to catch back up. Florida will be a good example to watch over this week: this is a state that Republicans should do well with IPEV. They will also need to see a comeback in North Carolina (more on that in that state's post soon) from the lead that Democrats built there. I'll do my best to keep you updated on the important states and trends that I see, whether good for Democrats/Republicans or bad for Democrats/Republicans. I'll also repost other people who have good data, so you can then get different perspectives on the early vote.
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Randy Ellison retweeted
This is not being anti-Talarico; it's being realistic. Both things have to be true for a win: -Low Republican turnout -Overwhelmingly blue environment One isn't enough. We know we have a blue environment. We don't know how overwhelming it will be or whether Rs turn out.
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Randy Ellison retweeted
Titans fans’ outpouring of frustration this week has not fallen on deaf ears: President & CEO Burke Nihill sent this email out to the fans on Friday. “Titans Fans, We're sorry. You've spent far too many Sunday afternoons leaving Nissan Stadium disappointed, and you're tired of it. Many of you have stood by the Titans for more than a quarter century, and that loyalty deserves far better than what we've given you. It's an incredible privilege to spend our professional lives working for your football team, which is what makes it so painful to know we've been letting you down. The magic of football is that it brings our community together to spark joy and create lifelong memories. For far too long, our team's performance hasn't delivered that. The football operation is working tirelessly to build the competitive team you deserve. Winning matters most, by a wide margin. We understand that. On the business side of the organization, we're focused on supporting and honoring you, this season and every season to come. You've made us part of your lives and your family traditions, on Sunday afternoons and beyond. There's more work to do to serve you better. While we will continue to work every week of this season to give you our best, we're also working hard to be sure the new Nissan Stadium fan experience is among the best in sports. We owe you that. For a long time, we've solicited your input and opinions about the fan experience through our Membership Services team, surveys, focus groups, and more. After a particularly tough start to this year, it was obvious connecting directly with our fans for their honest feedback mattered more than ever. I'm grateful to the Two-Tone Blue Nation crew for their candor and advice that week, which led to a new chant and the return of the Pain Train. Those are my favorite parts of our 2026 game day experience, and without question it's because our fans created them. Since then, we've been thinking about how to harness the power and voices of our fans to carry this team - your team - into the future with both treasured and new traditions and experiences that make you proud. Very soon, we'll share more about an initiative to organize and activate some of our most passionate and loyal fans who will meet regularly with Titans business leaders. The concept is simple, and probably something we should have done a long time ago: we want to listen, ask questions, and let our fans help shape the future of the Titans fan community and experience. None of this changes the bottom line: our team hasn't been good enough, and you deserve better. Listening to you is one way we'll work to earn back your trust and belief, but everyone here knows the results on the field matter most. Thank you for sticking with us through the hard days, for showing up, and for making this team yours. We don't take it for granted.”
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Inside our report of the Tennessee Titans hiring Jeremy Walls to fill their new Chief Business Officer role: - Ongoing lawsuit with former Cardinals employee who alleges she faced racial discrimination, harassment, retaliation and disparate treatment - His success with premium seating, hospitality and events More:
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Randy Ellison retweeted
I do think we're looking at a polling error right. Last night there were 892 interviews across a bunch of districts. 4/4 Dems were +129% of expectations, 4/4 Republicans only +2%.
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Every NHL front office exec should read this piece. It applies league-wide. Nice work here Ken.
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In US midterm elections, turnout rises steadily with age, and 18- to 24-year-olds are consistently the least likely age group to vote. The olds determine midterm elections
Early Vote Age Demographics Update 10/9: We now have over 2.4 million votes and with the states that directly provide age we have only seen younger voters share shrink. Voters 40 and under basically lost about -0.77% share since the last update and we got over twice as many votes to analyze. At some point, younger voters will start to increase their share but this has been a very older electorate so far. 65 and older voters are about 66.27% of the early vote (again from states that we get this data directly). That is a crazy share so far. There are other states where you can dig to get voter age and we are seeing similar patterns there. Just for reference the FINAL % share of under 40 voters for the past two cycles were: 2024: 26.30% 2022: 16.30%
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New edition of the JMI Poll is live! These results include Floridians’ opinions on the statewide elections, the constitutional amendments, affordability concerns, and more. Find the full polling results here: jmipoll.com
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Looking forward to seeing the full Florida Gov/Senate poll dropping Friday from @JmsMadisonInst and @TargozR!
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Randy Ellison retweeted
LMAO. Reporter tries the 'data center jobs are temporary' line on a Pennsylvania tradesman literally building one. His answer: “Every job in my field is temporary.”
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