Sr Fellow and Dir @StimsonCenter. Co-host of Net Assessment podcast. Roots for @Orioles @MNWild @Vikings. Opinions my own.

Joined May 2026
Christopher Preble retweeted
Today, we welcomed William P. Ruger (@WillRuger) as a Distinguished Fellow, strengthening our team of conservative scholars, policy experts, and strategic thinkers working to usher in Americaโ€™s Golden Age. An Afghanistan War veteran, former senior intelligence official, free-market think tank president, and accomplished scholar, Ruger brings a remarkable record of service and leadership across national security, academia, and public policy. Welcome to Heritage, @WillRuger! Read the full press release: heritage.org/press/the-heritโ€ฆ
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Christopher Preble retweeted
Quite funny to look back at how stupid the cheerleading for the Iran war was from The Free Press. For example, this commentary couldn't have been more wrong.
This is one of the biggest geopolitical mysteries of the year: why did China just save the world economy? Because, make no mistake, it absolutely did. Analysts are pretty much unanimous on this: had China not dramatically - and I mean dramatically - reduced its oil imports this year, the price of crude oil would have gone through the roof and dragged the global economy down with it. For proof, read how Javier Blas from Bloomberg - widely recognized as one of the worldโ€™s top energy analysts - explains what China did to Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer on their podcast โ€œThe Long Gameโ€ (thelonggame.substack.com/p/tโ€ฆ). As Blas puts it, China went โ€œfrom 11, 12 million barrels a day to less than 6 million barrels a dayโ€ of seaborne crude imports, and that โ€œfreed a lot of oil for other countries, particularly in Asia.โ€ India, Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia โ€œcould buy the barrels that China was not buying.โ€ To be clear, China wasnโ€™t the only factor - surging US exports and the IEAโ€™s emergency release helped too - but it was by far the biggest: JPMorgan reckons China accounted for about 74% of the fall in global crude trade (fortune.com/2026/06/10/oil-pโ€ฆ). So it's no exaggeration to say that it is China, first and foremost, that saved the world economy this year. If you remember the early days of the Iran war, none of this is what was predicted. In fact some US think tankers, such as the (always horrendous) Zineb Riboua from the Hudson Institute, were even cheering the war as being โ€œall about Chinaโ€ฆ the opening act in the larger contest against China,โ€ the moment the US would crack โ€œthe central pillar of a regional order that Beijing has assembledโ€ (thefp.com/p/the-iran-strike-โ€ฆ). Seven months on, what actually happened is that not only did China come out of the war unscathed economically, and strengthened strategically, it also ended up shielding the world economy, Americaโ€™s included, from the fallout of the very war that was supposed to be its undoing. Breaking news: if you do something thatโ€™s supposed to be a โ€œblowโ€ to someone else - some sort of 3D chess move to gain the upper hand - and they end up having to rescue you from the fallout, maybe it wasnโ€™t such a brilliant strategic move after all. So how did China pull it off? And, more intriguingly, why did it choose to rescue countries, including the US, from a war that Washingtonโ€™s own hawks were openly selling as a strike against China itself? And why do this when it effectively dampened Iran's leverage considerably, even though they're supposed to be China's "ally" (which, as we'll see, is false)? This is the topic of my latest article. I went very deep researching all the Chinese sources I could find on this, looking at the exact legal mechanisms, and at what officials, oil refiners and state media actually said. The answer turns out to be far stranger than I expected: no-one in Beijing actually ever ordered an import cut. China, effectively, seems to have saved the world economy incidentally, as a by-product of its own domestic policy to protect Chinese consumers. Which is the real story here: China has become so large and so important it can just rescue the world economy as a mere side effect. In fact what I discovered, hilariously, is that the Chinese were just as surprised as anyone else: itโ€™s only weeks after Western media started crediting China with saving the world economy that Chinese media picked up the story. And even then, CCTVโ€™s first take in July (chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-โ€ฆ) presented it as something ๅค–ๅช’็งฐ (wร imรฉi chฤ“ng, โ€œforeign media claimโ€) ๐Ÿคฃ Almost like a giant suddenly waking up to its own powers. Because, that's the thing: intentions fade, consequences stay. Intentional or not, as Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, Russiaโ€™s largest oil company, put it (reuters.com/business/aerospaโ€ฆ), the consequence is that it's now China, not OPEC, who calls the shots on global energy markets. The valve of global oil pricing is now in Shandong, not in Zhongdong anymore (Zhongdong, ไธญไธœ, is the Middle East in Chinese). Full article here, with how Chinaโ€™s 20-year strategic nightmare, the โ€œMalacca dilemmaโ€, has now effectively become its leverage over the rest of the world: arnaudbertrand.substack.com/โ€ฆ
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Christopher Preble retweeted
This is a *very* interesting exchange that suggests beyond the theatrics, a restoration of the transatlantic relationship to the status quo ante Trump is not in the cards, whoever wins the White House in 2028.
At the @WarsawForum, I asked Democratic Congressman Jim Himes what would change and what would remain the same in US-Europe relations with a new Democratic Administration? โ€‹Himes provided a pretty clear and realistic overview. #WSF2026
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Christopher Preble retweeted
We've gone from "there is no munitions shortage" to "the people who warned us about it are responsible for it." Hell of a take.
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Christopher Preble retweeted
Most of the country is mad Trump launched Operation Epic Fury.
Quincy is big mad Trump launched Operation Epic Fury.
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Christopher Preble retweeted
No. Iโ€™m mad American bases got lit up, American farmers are going bankrupt because fertilizer didn't reach market, and American families are eating the costs of a war their representatives in Congress never voted for. You can celebrate destroying things. The actual job of statecraft is to leave America safer and stronger afterward. This ain't it.
Replying to @RLHeinrichs
But theyโ€™re really just mad about Trumpโ€™s decision to destroy Iranโ€™s military. Im supportive. Whether or not we end the war well and on our terms is TBD.
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Christopher Preble retweeted
NEW: Days before Trump launched the Iran war, Trump summoned then-ODNI Tulsi Gabbard to the Oval Office. He asked if the U.S. should go to war. The IC assessed killing Khamenei would usher in hardliners, regime would close Strait, and Iran would attack in MidEast.
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Christopher Preble retweeted
โ€œPerhaps the most important structural factor encouraging presidents to repeatedly engage in unnecessary wars is that U.S. citizens remain unusually insulated from these interventionsโ€™ consequences,โ€ writes @EmmaMAshford. foreignaffairs.com/united-stโ€ฆ
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Christopher Preble retweeted
Yet more evidence that the US foreign policy establishmentโ€™s pathological obsession with Iran is not shared by Americans. End this stupid war now.
Latest UMD CIP Poll: Americans Want Iran War to End Now - Even with Goals Unachieved. Only 1 in 5 Back Using Force to Prevent Iran Nukes. Half Democrats say US should be responsible for some Iran reparations for war damage. Full results and analysis: sadat.umd.edu/sites/sadat.umโ€ฆ
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Christopher Preble retweeted
Some excellent reporting from the @nytimes on Iran's strikes on US forces in Jordan, including four attacks in five days, two service members killed, dozens wounded. Three things stand out about Iranian capabilities, and US position in region. ๐Ÿงต nytimes.com/2026/07/18/worldโ€ฆ
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Christopher Preble retweeted
โ€œThe turning point wasnโ€™t the assassination of the supreme leader, it was the assassination of Larijani,โ€ said a Western official. โ€œThe U.S. was looking for an Iranian official to deal with and all of a sudden he was gone.โ€ washingtonpost.com/national-โ€ฆ
โ€œFearful that an Israeli assassination effort would doom the negotiations, the United States . . . went so far as to ask other countries in the region to warn Iran about the possibility Israel could target the two [Iranian] officials.โ€ nytimes.com/2026/07/02/us/poโ€ฆ
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Christopher Preble retweeted
โ€œThe turning point wasnโ€™t the assassination of the supreme leader, it was the assassination of Larijani,โ€ said a Western official. โ€œThe U.S. was looking for an Iranian official to deal with and all of a sudden he was gone.โ€ washingtonpost.com/national-โ€ฆ
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Christopher Preble retweeted
โ€œYou cannot take a foreign governmentโ€™s money and give Americans honest advice on their own security,โ€ @raedjarrar tells @nick_clevelands on Norm Coleman's appointment as vice chair of the Defense Policy Board. responsiblestatecraft.org/deโ€ฆ
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Christopher Preble retweeted
Registered Foreign Agent for Saudi Arabia Norm Coleman is now Vice-Chair of the Defense Policy Board. Happy 250th Birthday America!
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This is some very smart analysis
ื‘ื”ืžืฉืš ืœื›ืชื‘ื” ื”ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื” ืฉืœ @ronenbergman , ื™ืฉ ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ื ื•ืกืคืช ืฉื›ื“ืื™ ืœื–ื›ื•ืจ. ื‘ืื•ืงื˜ื•ื‘ืจ 2013 ืžื™ื”ืจ ื‘ื ื™ืžื™ืŸ ื ืชื ื™ื”ื• ืœื”ื›ืชื™ืจ ืืช ื ืฉื™ื ืื™ืจืืŸ ื”ื—ื“ืฉ ื—ืกืŸ ืจื•ื—ืื ื™ ื›"ื–ืื‘ ื‘ืขื•ืจ ืฉืœ ื›ื‘ืฉ". ืืœื ืฉื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืฉื‘ื™ืจื•ืฉืœื™ื ืกื™ืจื‘ื• ืœืจืื•ืช ื›ืœ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™, ืจื•ื—ืื ื™ ื”ื•ื‘ื™ืœ ื‘ืชื•ืš ืื™ืจืืŸ ืžืื‘ืง ืืžื™ืชื™ ืžื•ืœ ืžื•ืงื“ื™ ื”ื›ื•ื— ื”ืฉืžืจื ื™ื™ื, ืขื“ ื›ื“ื™ ื›ืš ืฉื‘ื›ื™ืจื™ื ื‘ืžืฉืžืจื•ืช ื”ืžื”ืคื›ื” ืชืงืคื• ืื•ืชื• ื‘ืคื•ืžื‘ื™. ืจื•ื—ืื ื™ ืœื ื”ื™ื” ืœื™ื‘ืจืœ ืžืขืจื‘ื™, ืœื ืคืฆื™ืคื™ืกื˜ ื•ืœื ืฆื™ื•ื ื™. ื”ื•ื ื”ื™ื” ืื™ืฉ ื”ืžืฉื˜ืจ. ืื‘ืœ ื”ื•ื ื’ื ื”ื™ื” ื”ืื™ืฉ ืฉื ื™ืกื” ืœื”ืกื™ื˜ ืืช ื”ืžืฉื˜ืจ ืžืžืกืœื•ืœ ื”ื”ืชื ื’ืฉื•ืช ื”ืžืชืžื™ื“ ืขื ื”ืžืขืจื‘. ืžื‘ื—ื™ื ืชื•, ื”ืกื›ื ื”ื’ืจืขื™ืŸ ืœื ื”ื™ื” ื™ืขื“ ืืœื ื ืงื•ื“ืช ืคืชื™ื—ื” ื•ืฆืขื“ ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ื‘ื“ืจืš ืœื ื•ืจืžืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื” ื”ื“ืจื’ืชื™ืช ื‘ื™ื—ืกื™ื ืขื ืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ื‘ืจื™ืช ื•ืœืคืชื™ื—ืช ืื™ืจืืŸ ืœืขื•ืœื. ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจ ื”ืื™ืจืื ื™ ื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ื–ืืช. ืœื›ืŸ ื‘-2017 ื”ื•ื ื”ืขื ื™ืง ืœืจื•ื—ืื ื™ ื ื™ืฆื—ื•ืŸ ื‘ืจื•ืจ ืขืœ ืื‘ืจืื”ื™ื ืจืื™ืกื™, ื”ืžื•ืขืžื“ ื”ืžื•ืขื“ืฃ ืขืœ ื”ืžื—ื ื” ื”ืฉืžืจื ื™. ืืœื ืฉืื– ื”ื’ื™ืขื” ื”ืคืจื™ืฉื” ื”ืืžืจื™ืงืื™ืช ืžื”ืกื›ื ื”ื’ืจืขื™ืŸ. ื”ืžื”ืœืš ื”ื–ื” ืœื ืจืง ืคื’ืข ื‘ื”ืกื›ื; ื”ื•ื ืจื™ืกืง ืืช ื”ืžื—ื ื” ืฉื˜ืขืŸ ืฉืืคืฉืจ ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื“ื™ืคืœื•ืžื˜ื™ื” ื•ืคืชื™ื—ื•ืช, ื•ื”ื•ื›ื™ื— ื‘ืขื™ื ื™ ืื™ืจืื ื™ื ืจื‘ื™ื ืฉื”ืžืขืจื‘ ืื™ื ื• ืฉื•ืชืฃ ืฉื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืกืžื•ืš ืขืœื™ื•. ื‘ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ื”ื–ื”, ื”ื™ืฆื™ืื” ืžื”ืกื›ื ื”ื’ืจืขื™ืŸ ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื ื™ืฆื—ื•ืŸ ื›ืคื•ืœ ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื”ืงื™ืฆื•ื ื™ื ื‘ื˜ื”ืจืŸ. ื”ื™ื ื”ื—ืœื™ืฉื” ืืช ื”ืžื—ื ื” ื”ืžืชื•ืŸ ืžื‘ืคื ื™ื ื•ื—ื™ื–ืงื” ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืืช ื”ื›ื•ื—ื•ืช ืฉื”ื–ื”ื™ืจื• ืžืคื ื™ ื›ืœ ื”ืชืงืจื‘ื•ืช ืœืžืขืจื‘. ื‘ืžืฉืš ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ื™ืฉืจืืœื™ืช ื”ืชืขืงืฉื” ืฉืื™ืŸ ื”ื‘ื“ืœ ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ืคืœื’ื™ื ื‘ืชื•ืš ื”ืžืฉื˜ืจ ื”ืื™ืจืื ื™, ืฉืื™ืŸ ืžืงื•ื ืœื”ื‘ื—ื™ืŸ ื‘ื™ืŸ ืžืชื•ื ื™ื ืœืงื™ืฆื•ื ื™ื, ื•ืฉื›ืœ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ื—ื™ื™ื‘ ืœื‘ื•ื ืžื‘ื—ื•ืฅ. ื–ื• ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืชืคื™ืกื” ื ื•ื—ื”, ืืš ื”ื™ื ื”ืชืขืœืžื” ืžื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช. ื”ืชื•ืฆืื” ื”ื™ื ืฉื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ ืœืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืคื ื™ืžื™, ืฉื”ื™ื” ืžื•ื’ื‘ืœ ืืš ืžืžืฉื™, ื ืคื’ืข ืงืฉื•ืช, ื‘ืขื•ื“ ืฉื”ื—ืœื•ื ืขืœ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ื—ื™ืฆื•ื ื™ ื ื•ืชืจ ืจื—ื•ืง ื”ื™ื•ื ืืคื™ืœื• ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื›ืคื™ ืฉื”ื™ื” ืื–. ืขื•ื“ ืชื•ืกืคืช ืœืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ื›ื•ืฉืœืช ืฉื”ื•ื‘ื™ืœื” ืืช ืื™ืจืืŸ ืœืกืฃ ื”ื’ืจืขื™ื ื™.
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Democrats should make 2 key points.ย  1) The illegal war in Iran has been a blunder & we are worse off than before it started. 2) Thereโ€™s no good way out of a bad war. We should reject the talking points of those who cheered it on & want to drag us back into it. When you're in a hole, stop digging.
Very revealing. Republican senators who were AWOL regarding their constitutional duties around STARTING the war against Iran all of a sudden demand that Congress play a role in STOPPING the war. A whole lot of warmongering going on.
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Christopher Preble retweeted
America's foreign policy now carries 55 to 60 security commitments. @StimsonCenter's Christopher Preble on how we got here, and why realism and restraint offer a better path. ๐Ÿงต
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Christopher Preble retweeted
Just to recap: We tore up a fine nuclear deal that put Tehranโ€™s nuclear program in a box with strict caps, limitations and oversight (and yes, 10, 15 and 20 year sunsets), which allowed Iran to acquire more and better centrifuges and accumulate a large enrichment stockpile it wouldnโ€™t have otherwise. Then we complained about it despite Iranโ€™s actions being highly predictable and predicted. Then we bombed Iran in June 2025 to destroy Iranโ€™s nuclear facilities, only to go to war again eight months later (despite Trump telling us the program was destroyed), which the Iranians responded to by targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, shuttering the Strait of Hormuz and pushing fuel prices up 50%. And then four months later, when it was all said and done, we ended up paying Iran via oil sanctions waivers to end the war, re-open the strait (which was already open before the war) and talk about their nuclear program again. Our foreign policy leaders are morons. And of course nobody will be held accountable for any of itโ€”not the โ€œthought leadersโ€ who sold the military option as a panacea or the officials who implemented it.
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Earlier this week, Will Smith and I released a new Stimson Center report on the war in Iran as part of the "Is War Worth It?" project. We examined the stated US objectives, whether the US achieved them, and the costs (direct and indirect) of the conflict. Our conclusion: the Iran War is worse than a failure. It's a strategic calamity with no notable achievements and potentially trillions in direct and indirect costs to the US and global economy. Iranโ€™s nuclear capacity is broadly unchanged, its missile force largely intact, its hard-liners empowered, its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz enhanced, and U.S. munitions stockpiles depleted. How did we come to that conclusion? We actually took into account how the Trump administration publicly tried to justify the war -- and then took a deep dive look at the costs of the war. stimson.org/2026/is-the-iranโ€ฆ
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