
Sr Fellow and Dir @StimsonCenter. Co-host of Net Assessment podcast. Roots for @Orioles @MNWild @Vikings. Opinions my own.
Joined May 2026
- Tweets87
- Following138
- Followers188
- Likes85
Christopher Preble retweeted
Today, we welcomed William P. Ruger (@WillRuger) as a Distinguished Fellow, strengthening our team of conservative scholars, policy experts, and strategic thinkers working to usher in Americaโs Golden Age.
An Afghanistan War veteran, former senior intelligence official, free-market think tank president, and accomplished scholar, Ruger brings a remarkable record of service and leadership across national security, academia, and public policy.
Welcome to Heritage, @WillRuger!
Read the full press release: heritage.org/press/the-heritโฆ
Christopher Preble retweeted
Quite funny to look back at how stupid the cheerleading for the Iran war was from The Free Press. For example, this commentary couldn't have been more wrong.
This is one of the biggest geopolitical mysteries of the year: why did China just save the world economy?
Because, make no mistake, it absolutely did. Analysts are pretty much unanimous on this: had China not dramatically - and I mean dramatically - reduced its oil imports this year, the price of crude oil would have gone through the roof and dragged the global economy down with it.
For proof, read how Javier Blas from Bloomberg - widely recognized as one of the worldโs top energy analysts - explains what China did to Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer on their podcast โThe Long Gameโ (thelonggame.substack.com/p/tโฆ).
As Blas puts it, China went โfrom 11, 12 million barrels a day to less than 6 million barrels a dayโ of seaborne crude imports, and that โfreed a lot of oil for other countries, particularly in Asia.โ India, Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia โcould buy the barrels that China was not buying.โ
To be clear, China wasnโt the only factor - surging US exports and the IEAโs emergency release helped too - but it was by far the biggest: JPMorgan reckons China accounted for about 74% of the fall in global crude trade (fortune.com/2026/06/10/oil-pโฆ).
So it's no exaggeration to say that it is China, first and foremost, that saved the world economy this year.
If you remember the early days of the Iran war, none of this is what was predicted. In fact some US think tankers, such as the (always horrendous) Zineb Riboua from the Hudson Institute, were even cheering the war as being โall about Chinaโฆ the opening act in the larger contest against China,โ the moment the US would crack โthe central pillar of a regional order that Beijing has assembledโ (thefp.com/p/the-iran-strike-โฆ).
Seven months on, what actually happened is that not only did China come out of the war unscathed economically, and strengthened strategically, it also ended up shielding the world economy, Americaโs included, from the fallout of the very war that was supposed to be its undoing.
Breaking news: if you do something thatโs supposed to be a โblowโ to someone else - some sort of 3D chess move to gain the upper hand - and they end up having to rescue you from the fallout, maybe it wasnโt such a brilliant strategic move after all.
So how did China pull it off? And, more intriguingly, why did it choose to rescue countries, including the US, from a war that Washingtonโs own hawks were openly selling as a strike against China itself?
And why do this when it effectively dampened Iran's leverage considerably, even though they're supposed to be China's "ally" (which, as we'll see, is false)?
This is the topic of my latest article. I went very deep researching all the Chinese sources I could find on this, looking at the exact legal mechanisms, and at what officials, oil refiners and state media actually said.
The answer turns out to be far stranger than I expected: no-one in Beijing actually ever ordered an import cut. China, effectively, seems to have saved the world economy incidentally, as a by-product of its own domestic policy to protect Chinese consumers.
Which is the real story here: China has become so large and so important it can just rescue the world economy as a mere side effect.
In fact what I discovered, hilariously, is that the Chinese were just as surprised as anyone else: itโs only weeks after Western media started crediting China with saving the world economy that Chinese media picked up the story. And even then, CCTVโs first take in July (chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-โฆ) presented it as something ๅคๅช็งฐ (wร imรฉi chฤng, โforeign media claimโ) ๐คฃ
Almost like a giant suddenly waking up to its own powers. Because, that's the thing: intentions fade, consequences stay. Intentional or not, as Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, Russiaโs largest oil company, put it (reuters.com/business/aerospaโฆ), the consequence is that it's now China, not OPEC, who calls the shots on global energy markets.
The valve of global oil pricing is now in Shandong, not in Zhongdong anymore (Zhongdong, ไธญไธ, is the Middle East in Chinese).
Full article here, with how Chinaโs 20-year strategic nightmare, the โMalacca dilemmaโ, has now effectively become its leverage over the rest of the world: arnaudbertrand.substack.com/โฆ
Christopher Preble retweeted
This is a *very* interesting exchange that suggests beyond the theatrics, a restoration of the transatlantic relationship to the status quo ante Trump is not in the cards, whoever wins the White House in 2028.
At the @WarsawForum, I asked Democratic Congressman Jim Himes what would change and what would remain the same in US-Europe relations with a new Democratic Administration?
โHimes provided a pretty clear and realistic overview.
#WSF2026
Christopher Preble retweeted
The war in Iran has demoralized the least indefatigably partisan part of Donald Trumpโs electoral coalition, writes @jimantle.
responsiblestatecraft.org/reโฆ
Christopher Preble retweeted
We've gone from "there is no munitions shortage" to "the people who warned us about it are responsible for it."
Hell of a take.
unavailable
Christopher Preble retweeted
No. Iโm mad American bases got lit up, American farmers are going bankrupt because fertilizer didn't reach market, and American families are eating the costs of a war their representatives in Congress never voted for.
You can celebrate destroying things. The actual job of statecraft is to leave America safer and stronger afterward. This ain't it.
Replying to @RLHeinrichs
But theyโre really just mad about Trumpโs decision to destroy Iranโs military.
Im supportive. Whether or not we end the war well and on our terms is TBD.
Christopher Preble retweeted
NEW: Days before Trump launched the Iran war, Trump summoned then-ODNI Tulsi Gabbard to the Oval Office.
He asked if the U.S. should go to war.
The IC assessed killing Khamenei would usher in hardliners, regime would close Strait, and Iran would attack in MidEast.
Christopher Preble retweeted
โPerhaps the most important structural factor encouraging presidents to repeatedly engage in unnecessary wars is that U.S. citizens remain unusually insulated from these interventionsโ consequences,โ writes @EmmaMAshford.
foreignaffairs.com/united-stโฆ
Yet more evidence that the US foreign policy establishmentโs pathological obsession with Iran is not shared by Americans.
End this stupid war now.
Latest UMD CIP Poll: Americans Want Iran War to End Now - Even with Goals Unachieved. Only 1 in 5 Back Using Force to Prevent Iran Nukes. Half Democrats say US should be responsible for some Iran reparations for war damage. Full results and analysis:
sadat.umd.edu/sites/sadat.umโฆ
Christopher Preble retweeted
Some excellent reporting from the @nytimes on Iran's strikes on US forces in Jordan, including four attacks in five days, two service members killed, dozens wounded.
Three things stand out about Iranian capabilities, and US position in region. ๐งต
nytimes.com/2026/07/18/worldโฆ
Christopher Preble retweeted
โThe turning point wasnโt the assassination of the supreme leader, it was the assassination of Larijani,โ said a Western official. โThe U.S. was looking for an Iranian official to deal with and all of a sudden he was gone.โ washingtonpost.com/national-โฆ
โFearful that an Israeli assassination effort would doom the negotiations, the United States . . . went so far as to ask other countries in the region to warn Iran about the possibility Israel could target the two [Iranian] officials.โ nytimes.com/2026/07/02/us/poโฆ
Christopher Preble retweeted
โThe turning point wasnโt the assassination of the supreme leader, it was the assassination of Larijani,โ said a Western official. โThe U.S. was looking for an Iranian official to deal with and all of a sudden he was gone.โ washingtonpost.com/national-โฆ
Christopher Preble retweeted
โYou cannot take a foreign governmentโs money and give Americans honest advice on their own security,โ @raedjarrar tells @nick_clevelands on Norm Coleman's appointment as vice chair of the Defense Policy Board.
responsiblestatecraft.org/deโฆ
Christopher Preble retweeted
Registered Foreign Agent for Saudi Arabia Norm Coleman is now Vice-Chair of the Defense Policy Board.
Happy 250th Birthday America!
Christopher Preble retweeted
This is some very smart analysis
ืืืืฉื ืืืชืื ืืืฉืืื ืฉื @ronenbergman , ืืฉ ืขืืืื ื ืืกืคืช ืฉืืืื ืืืืืจ. ืืืืงืืืืจ 2013 ืืืืจ ืื ืืืื ื ืชื ืืื ืืืืชืืจ ืืช ื ืฉืื ืืืจืื ืืืืฉ ืืกื ืจืืืื ื ื"ืืื ืืขืืจ ืฉื ืืืฉ". ืืื ืฉืืืื ืฉืืืจืืฉืืื ืกืืจืื ืืจืืืช ืื ืฉืื ืื, ืจืืืื ื ืืืืื ืืชืื ืืืจืื ืืืืง ืืืืชื ืืื ืืืงืื ืืืื ืืฉืืจื ืืื, ืขื ืืื ืื ืฉืืืืจืื ืืืฉืืจืืช ืืืืคืื ืชืงืคื ืืืชื ืืคืืืื.
ืจืืืื ื ืื ืืื ืืืืจื ืืขืจืื, ืื ืคืฆืืคืืกื ืืื ืฆืืื ื. ืืื ืืื ืืืฉ ืืืฉืืจ. ืืื ืืื ืื ืืื ืืืืฉ ืฉื ืืกื ืืืกืื ืืช ืืืฉืืจ ืืืกืืื ืืืชื ืืฉืืช ืืืชืืื ืขื ืืืขืจื. ืืืืื ืชื, ืืกืื ืืืจืขืื ืื ืืื ืืขื ืืื ื ืงืืืช ืคืชืืื ืืฆืขื ืจืืฉืื ืืืจื ืื ืืจืืืืืฆืื ืืืจืืชืืช ืืืืกืื ืขื ืืจืฆืืช ืืืจืืช ืืืคืชืืืช ืืืจืื ืืขืืื.
ืืฆืืืืจ ืืืืจืื ื ืืืื ืืืช. ืืื ื-2017 ืืื ืืขื ืืง ืืจืืืื ื ื ืืฆืืื ืืจืืจ ืขื ืืืจืืืื ืจืืืกื, ืืืืขืื ืืืืขืืฃ ืขื ืืืื ื ืืฉืืจื ื. ืืื ืฉืื ืืืืขื ืืคืจืืฉื ืืืืจืืงืืืช ืืืกืื ืืืจืขืื. ืืืืื ืืื ืื ืจืง ืคืืข ืืืกืื; ืืื ืจืืกืง ืืช ืืืื ื ืฉืืขื ืฉืืคืฉืจ ืืืฉืื ืฉืื ืื ืืืืฆืขืืช ืืืคืืืืืื ืืคืชืืืืช, ืืืืืื ืืขืื ื ืืืจืื ืื ืจืืื ืฉืืืขืจื ืืื ื ืฉืืชืฃ ืฉื ืืชื ืืกืืื ืขืืื.
ืืืืื ืืื, ืืืฆืืื ืืืกืื ืืืจืขืื ืืืืชื ื ืืฆืืื ืืคืื ืขืืืจ ืืงืืฆืื ืื ืืืืจื. ืืื ืืืืืฉื ืืช ืืืื ื ืืืชืื ืืืคื ืื ืืืืืงื ืืืืืง ืืช ืืืืืืช ืฉืืืืืจื ืืคื ื ืื ืืชืงืจืืืช ืืืขืจื.
ืืืฉื ืฉื ืื ืืืืื ืืืช ืืืฉืจืืืืช ืืชืขืงืฉื ืฉืืื ืืืื ืืื ืืคืืืื ืืชืื ืืืฉืืจ ืืืืจืื ื, ืฉืืื ืืงืื ืืืืืื ืืื ืืชืื ืื ืืงืืฆืื ืื, ืืฉืื ืฉืื ืื ืืืื ืืืื ืืืืืฅ. ืื ืืืืชื ืชืคืืกื ื ืืื, ืื ืืื ืืชืขืืื ืืืืฆืืืืช. ืืชืืฆืื ืืื ืฉืืกืืืื ืืฉืื ืื ืคื ืืื, ืฉืืื ืืืืื ืื ืืืฉื, ื ืคืืข ืงืฉืืช, ืืขืื ืฉืืืืื ืขื ืฉืื ืื ืืืฆืื ื ื ืืชืจ ืจืืืง ืืืื ืืคืืื ืืืชืจ ืืืคื ืฉืืื ืื.
ืขืื ืชืืกืคืช ืืืืื ืืืช ืืืืฉืืช ืฉืืืืืื ืืช ืืืจืื ืืกืฃ ืืืจืขืื ื.
Christopher Preble retweeted
Democrats should make 2 key points.ย
1) The illegal war in Iran has been a blunder & we are worse off than before it started.
2) Thereโs no good way out of a bad war. We should reject the talking points of those who cheered it on & want to drag us back into it. When you're in a hole, stop digging.
Christopher Preble retweeted
America's foreign policy now carries 55 to 60 security commitments. @StimsonCenter's Christopher Preble on how we got here, and why realism and restraint offer a better path. ๐งต
Christopher Preble retweeted
Just to recap:
We tore up a fine nuclear deal that put Tehranโs nuclear program in a box with strict caps, limitations and oversight (and yes, 10, 15 and 20 year sunsets), which allowed Iran to acquire more and better centrifuges and accumulate a large enrichment stockpile it wouldnโt have otherwise.
Then we complained about it despite Iranโs actions being highly predictable and predicted.
Then we bombed Iran in June 2025 to destroy Iranโs nuclear facilities, only to go to war again eight months later (despite Trump telling us the program was destroyed), which the Iranians responded to by targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, shuttering the Strait of Hormuz and pushing fuel prices up 50%.
And then four months later, when it was all said and done, we ended up paying Iran via oil sanctions waivers to end the war, re-open the strait (which was already open before the war) and talk about their nuclear program again.
Our foreign policy leaders are morons. And of course nobody will be held accountable for any of itโnot the โthought leadersโ who sold the military option as a panacea or the officials who implemented it.
Christopher Preble retweeted
Earlier this week, Will Smith and I released a new Stimson Center report on the war in Iran as part of the "Is War Worth It?" project.
We examined the stated US objectives, whether the US achieved them, and the costs (direct and indirect) of the conflict.
Our conclusion: the Iran War is worse than a failure. It's a strategic calamity with no notable achievements and potentially trillions in direct and indirect costs to the US and global economy.
Iranโs nuclear capacity is broadly unchanged, its missile force largely intact, its hard-liners empowered, its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz enhanced, and U.S. munitions stockpiles depleted.
How did we come to that conclusion?
We actually took into account how the Trump administration publicly tried to justify the war -- and then took a deep dive look at the costs of the war. stimson.org/2026/is-the-iranโฆ































