Institutional TMT research, made public. AI, semis, data & macro. Daily pre-market brief. Full research reports on Substack

Manhattan, NY
Joined October 2021
I will add $250,000 to it making it $500,000!! Debate him!!
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OMG!! 😳 Cantor: reflecting the overall market sell off and lower overall multiples, our $WDC new price target is $625 from $900…
WOW!! $WDC just crushed it. Revenue was $4.38B vs $4.13B expected, up 55%. EPS was $4.64 vs $4.07, a 14% beat, and up 161%. Gross margin hit 58.1%, above the 55–56% guide and up 14 points in a year. The guide is even bigger. Next quarter is now guided to $5.0–5.2B of revenue vs $4.57B expected, and EPS of $5.60–6.00 vs $4.78. That's a midpoint 21% above the Street. Gross margin is guided to 60–61%. A hard drive company with 60% margins. They also bought back $1B of stock this quarter and raised the dividend 17%.
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*KOSPI -4% *SAMSUNG -5% *SL HYNIX -4% 🩸🩸CLOSE KOREA!!!! 🇰🇷🩸🩸
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If you’re an AI investor, the next “alpha” is literally on our face right now…. So today an AI hacking group just went after 400+ banks with almost no humans in the loop. A team of agents scouted targets, stole passwords and broke into accounts. When one model refused, the system simply switched to another and the security firm that caught it says offense is now well ahead of defense…think about that for a second. If you’re in the Trump admin or any government official in the western world or allied with the United States, you’ve got a mandate to protect your “sovereignty” and citizens. This is obviously a major national security threat and I’ve tried to talk about it as much as I can on national TV and on X. When this attack was reported, Anthropic and the other US labs shut the hackers out. Their models run on their own servers, so they can see abuse, trace it and pull the plug. That's the whole ballgame imo which takes me to my next point… You can't do any of that with an open model. Once the weights are downloaded, they're out forever. There's no off switch, no audit trail and no one to call. A model sitting on someone's hard drive can't be revoked…which nobody wants if such attack happens. And btw this is only the beginning…think about where this goes from here… Today it's passwords at banks in Latin America. As these models get smarter, the same playbook works on hospitals, power grids and payment systems. No government can tell its citizens that frontier level intelligence will stay freely downloadable by anyone (even by adversaries or terrorists), anywhere, with zero oversight. Especially when some of the most capable open models come from labs outside US jurisdiction. So I think we're heading toward a "know your customer" era for AI, the same way banks have to know who they're moving money for. Expect licensing for the most powerful models, real accountability for whoever serves them, and a ban on open weight Chinese models above a certain capability level of all as a whole. It’s not so crazy to think that’s going to happen because early this summer the Trump admin banned an “American” made fable mythos model from Anthropic for its godly hacking capabilities. So if they’re going to do that for American models what makes you think they won’t do it to Chinese models? It’s a no brainer… Every one of those rules points the same way…toward labs that can control, monitor and shut down how their models are used. That's the new moat and it's one money can't easily buy. Compliance, monitoring and abuse detection take years to build. Enterprises and banks will start asking a simple question before they plug in any AI: who's accountable if it goes wrong? Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXSI and Google can answer that. A model downloaded off the internet can't… And as public markets investors there's an infrastructure angle. If frontier AI has to run where it can be watched, it runs in datacenters, not on random machines. Centralized inference means more demand for the hyperscalers, the chips $AMD/ $NVDA and the memory $MU and $SNDK behind them and as of today’s closing prices we think they’re totally undervalued and misunderstood. And to be fair, open models have real value and no regulation will be simple. The hackers used US models too…the difference is that the US labs could cut them off. That's exactly the point I’m trying to make. Safety after today will starts to look like the most valuable feature a model can have…limit up!
JUST IN: Major U.S. banks detect unauthorized AI agents in accounts
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*TOM LEE: BUYING THE SEMIS DIP *LEE: THERES NO BUBBLE *LEE: FED TURNING DOVISH *LEE: WE’RE CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM
*OPENAI NEARS UP TO $30B FUNDING ROUND AT $1.25T VALUATION:CNBC And you’re bearish?? Ok
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*OPENAI NEARS UP TO $30B FUNDING ROUND AT $1.25T VALUATION:CNBC And you’re bearish?? Ok
*OPENAI SEEKS $1.4 TRILLION VALUATION AHEAD OF ANTHROPIC IPO OpenAI is reportedly racing to raise $30 billion at a valuation exceeding $1.4 trillion before Anthropic’s expected November IPO. SoftBank and MGX are among investors. OpenAI reportedly claims $50 billion thus far in annualized revenue, targeting $70 billion by year end.
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OMG!!! $BE just blew past every number. Revenue was $1.24B vs $1.05B expected, an 18% beat. EPS was $0.94 vs $0.68, a 38% beat. Gross margin improved to 34.5%. Then it raised the year. 2026 revenue is now guided to $4.4–4.6B vs $4.1B expected, and EPS to $3.10–3.40 vs $2.73. And Bloom is joining the S&P 500, which brings a wave of index buying. This quarter proves hyperscalers are paying for it and faster than anyone modeled. Operating cash flow was slightly negative as Bloom builds capacity for all this demand…but the stock doesn’t deserve to go down 7%. What does this market want…
WTS: $BE isn't cheap and after a 160% run, expectations are high. Options are pricing in a move of about 11% on the print. But the problem Bloom solves, getting power to Al data centers fast, is getting bigger. Today the Street wants ~$1.07B of revenue, up 30%, and EPS around $0.68, versus $0.15 a year ago. Full year revenue is guided to roughly double, and analysts have raised estimates 17 times in three months without one cut. We rate Bloom Energy Overweight with a $334 price target, 40% upside.
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WOW!! $WDC just crushed it. Revenue was $4.38B vs $4.13B expected, up 55%. EPS was $4.64 vs $4.07, a 14% beat, and up 161%. Gross margin hit 58.1%, above the 55–56% guide and up 14 points in a year. The guide is even bigger. Next quarter is now guided to $5.0–5.2B of revenue vs $4.57B expected, and EPS of $5.60–6.00 vs $4.78. That's a midpoint 21% above the Street. Gross margin is guided to 60–61%. A hard drive company with 60% margins. They also bought back $1B of stock this quarter and raised the dividend 17%.
WTS: Every AI model, every agent and every robot creates data and it has to live somewhere. Most of it ends up on hard drives. $WDC reports tonight, guiding to ~$4.1B of revenue, up ~45%, with EPS around $4.08, more than double a year ago. Gross margin is guided to a record 55–56% and drives keep getting bigger 40TB now, then 44TB and 50TB next year. At ~15x earnings it's still priced like a cyclical not an AI winner. We're Overweight with a $613 PT.
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WTS: Every AI model, every agent and every robot creates data and it has to live somewhere. Most of it ends up on hard drives. $WDC reports tonight, guiding to ~$4.1B of revenue, up ~45%, with EPS around $4.08, more than double a year ago. Gross margin is guided to a record 55–56% and drives keep getting bigger 40TB now, then 44TB and 50TB next year. At ~15x earnings it's still priced like a cyclical not an AI winner. We're Overweight with a $613 PT.
WTS: $BE isn't cheap and after a 160% run, expectations are high. Options are pricing in a move of about 11% on the print. But the problem Bloom solves, getting power to Al data centers fast, is getting bigger. Today the Street wants ~$1.07B of revenue, up 30%, and EPS around $0.68, versus $0.15 a year ago. Full year revenue is guided to roughly double, and analysts have raised estimates 17 times in three months without one cut. We rate Bloom Energy Overweight with a $334 price target, 40% upside.
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WTS: $BE isn't cheap and after a 160% run, expectations are high. Options are pricing in a move of about 11% on the print. But the problem Bloom solves, getting power to Al data centers fast, is getting bigger. Today the Street wants ~$1.07B of revenue, up 30%, and EPS around $0.68, versus $0.15 a year ago. Full year revenue is guided to roughly double, and analysts have raised estimates 17 times in three months without one cut. We rate Bloom Energy Overweight with a $334 price target, 40% upside.
WOW!! $NOK just crushed their earnings!! - Operating profit came in at €605M vs €442M expected, a 37% beat. - Margins jumped 220bps to 11.7%. - Revenue was €5.15B, up 10% and ahead of the Street. The AI story got even stronger. AI & Cloud sales rose 123%, after doubling last quarter. IP Networks grew 43% and optical 18%. Network Infrastructure, the AI side of the business, grew 17%. And the Infinera integration is finishing a full year ahead of plan. Two things that bears will pound the table on is...1) AI & Cloud orders were €1.5B, below last quarter’s €2.8B, and 2) the full year profit guide was held at €2.1–2.6B instead of raised. After a beat this size, that guide looks conservative to me but im expecting someone to ask about orders on the call. Add a live AI-RAN call with T-Mobile and $NVDA and Nokia is now squarely in the AI infrastructure trade. Overweight, $23.80 PT.
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Nicholas Mugalli retweeted
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund — the largest in the world — said Thursday that its investment portfolio delivered a loss of $30 billion in the third quarter, as rising interest rates dented returns on its bond holdings. Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which manages the $2.3 trillion fund, said the accounting return for the period was a loss of 278 billion kroner ($29.7 billion). Around 70% of NBIM’s fixed income portfolio is allocated to government bonds, with the remainder invested in corporate debt. Read more: cnb.cx/4sgt1Jo
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*META FILING SHOWS OVER $800B IN FUTURE COMMITMENTS 🤯🤯 - $META's Q3 10-Q lists about $356B in data center and energy leases that have not started yet, running through 2036. - It also lists about $455B in noncancelable commitments, mostly third party cloud capacity like $CRWV & $NBIS plus servers and network gear. - About $121B of those commitments come due in 2027. How much does $META need to raise for this arm race? The most interesting part about this is all the most successful and savvy CEOs are spending money like crazy on this “AI trade” and the companies that are supposed to get the money are being sold off. We won’t be here for long…
If you’re a $META shareholder, here’s how this works now: Same as $GOOGL in 2014, every shareholder gets one new non-voting Class C share for each share they own. Same total value, split into two…one keeps the vote and the new one doesn't. It works like a 2-for-1 split, Zuckerberg's control doesn't change, and it takes effect January 19. Just like google. That's why $GOOGL (voting) and $GOOG (non-voting) both trade today. The difference is that Meta says it wants a non-voting currency to fund AI, acquisitions and engineer pay. With capex heading to $135–145B… Interesting…more capex coming folks!! Limit up on AI!!!
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Nicholas Mugalli retweeted
Brad Gerstner lays out the case why $SPCX is going to eat $CRWV alive and that’s the reason he sold his $650M of CoreWeave a month ago “The collateral that CoreWeave is putting up which is really only GPUs is not good enough anymore. They used that in the past to get cheap debt”
OMG!!🔥 JP Morgan just put a super bullish note on $SPCX rising its price target to $500 (from $240) which would be a $6.6 trillion mkt cap or the largest company in the history of humanity Elon said SpaceX value is probably double of earth’s value & now started to look real!
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It’s pretty obvious the market’s personality has changed. Credit markets are quietly screaming. Treasuries, mortgages, ABS, private credit. People can point to some favorable spreads and my response would be “just wait.”
We’ve entered “extreme fear” territory on this selloff. Cannot believe $SPCX guided up for 500B-1T in the next year in revenue and the market is selling it off. Never seeing this market irrationality before. It makes no sense
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We’ve entered “extreme fear” territory on this selloff. Cannot believe $SPCX guided up for 500B-1T in the next year in revenue and the market is selling it off. Never seeing this market irrationality before. It makes no sense
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*ACKMAN: $NFLX IS SUPER HIGH QUALITY BUSINESS *ACKMAN: CONFIDENT IN THE $NFLX TEAM *ACKMAN: NOBODY WANTS TO CANCEL THEIR NETFLIX SUBSCRIPTION
WTS: $NFLX doesn't need to be the growth story it was five years ago to be a great investment from here. It needs to keep growing revenue at double digits, keep expanding margins, turn ads into a real business and keep buying back stock with $11bn of free cash flow a year. All four are happening. The stock is pricing in a company in decline, while the TV data says Netflix is one of the two winners of the biggest shift in how people watch. Options are pricing in a move of about 10% tonight, so expect a pump. Advertising is on track for about $3bn this year, double last year. It's still small next to subscriptions, but it's the fastest-growing line in the business and the one that changes the long-term math. Every member on the ad tier pays $8.99 and also brings in ad dollars, and Netflix has a lot of room to sell more inventory at better prices. Any detail on fill rates, pricing or how many members chose the ad plan will matter more tonight than the subscription numbers. We rate Netflix Overweight with a $103 price target, 46% above today's price.
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*ACKMAN: IRAN WAR IS WELL EXECUTED *ACKMAN: SUPPORTIVE OF THE IRAN WAR *ACKMAN: FINISH IRAN AND RUSSIA AND INFLATION WILL COME DOWN *ACKMAN: NOBODY LIKES HIGH ENERGY PRICES THATS WHY THE IRAN WAS IS UNPOPULAR IN THE US
*BILL ACKMAN: INVESTORS SHOULD INVEST IN ISRAEL *ACKMAN: IF SILICON VALLEY WAS A COUNTRY IT’D BE ISRAEL
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*BILL ACKMAN: INVESTORS SHOULD INVEST IN ISRAEL *ACKMAN: IF SILICON VALLEY WAS A COUNTRY IT’D BE ISRAEL
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It’s happening…
JUST IN: Major U.S. banks detect unauthorized AI agents in accounts
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*BLACKSTONE PRESIDENT WE DONT SEE AN AI BUBBLE. $CRWV WILL BE FINE When you think about a bubble, you think about building capacity and then hoping the demand comes. With AI you're building capacity & you're hoping you can keep up with the demand. Demand for AI is parabolic…
BofA: Agentic demand could be ~20mn+ AI CPUs per 1bn users…we estimate agentic CPU shipments could reach ~26mn units by CY30 from only ~2.5mn units in CY26, given incremental ~20mn+ CPU demand for every 1bn new agentic users 🔥🔥 $ARM $AMD $INTC
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Dude if $NVDA is not willing to help $CRWV idk who would… Jensen: we invested in them... ($NBIS $CRWV) that's different than backing them…expect them to work on their own to get the financing they need…
Brad Gerstner lays out the case why $SPCX is going to eat $CRWV alive and that’s the reason he sold his $650M of CoreWeave a month ago “The collateral that CoreWeave is putting up which is really only GPUs is not good enough anymore. They used that in the past to get cheap debt”
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