everything is gooner casino
Tokyo AWS
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Getting a few Qs on the ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 thesis - rehashing the below but adding:
-I’m bullish stablecoins of all kinds - GENIUS-compliant or not. It’s a superior product than paper fiat and bank deposits in many use cases. It only accounts for $5-16T of adjusted transactions today. Credit cards are $35-40T, ACH is $100T. A lot more room to grow.
- $USDe is a superior product than many peers. It’s not GENIUS-compliant and that’s ok. It was never a competitor to $USDC. But for a meaningful amount of low-velocity users on @trondao it is superior to ethereum:0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c13d831ec7 and it just got added to the network. Multi-billion opportunity.
-@gdog97_ was always a Mt Rushmore figure in the current iteration of crypto next to @chameleon_jeff @PaulFrambot etc. but he didn’t really embrace the right tokenomics until the 90% sell-off post-10/10. The recent restructurings indicate he gets it. So now the product AND the token are both excellent.
-people underestimate exponential call options like Ethena pay, Robinhood chain, Tron, etc. you just need one to hit. P(hit) = 1 - (1-C1) * (1-C2)… * (1-Cn). Again we just need one.
Overall the story of $ENA is one of humans under appreciating the integral of exponential functions and the structural discount in “phoenix” comeback stories. This is it.
Let's spell out the ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 and $USDE thesis very simply
Following the fee switch vote, the only thing that matters for ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 economics is USDE circulation, which is a function of distribution and adoption
Market cap has gone up $500M in a month and has been adding $20-$40M daily through the weekends
Underlying yield is boosted by greater funding rate arb in crypto and soon to take a stepwise jump when the rumored @tradexyz equity perp funding rate arb partnership kicks in
@RobinhoodCrypto Chain added $320M in 2 months. Just getting started.
Haven't seen any uplift yet from @EthenaPay but of course that's forthcoming too
Every trend says $7.5B is much, much closer than market gives credit for, and of course current valuations give zero value for any of the $10B+ ratchet-ups
And you get all this at a 40%+ effective discount by owning the DAT $USDC which most people don't even know is in existence
Yeah, we're running $PURR back all over again
CC: @tedchenCPC @gdog97_
Maths
Even if true, large hidden constants in the O_k make precise cutoffs unclear. Treating the exponent roughly as n/sqrt(log n):
n≈100: ~2^50 ops (hours on a supercomputer).
n≈500: ~2^200 (far beyond worldwide compute for years).
n≈1000: ~2^380 (exceeds the ~2^266 atoms in the observable universe).
A hard 3SAT with ~100 vars might become practical; 500+ stays cosmic-scale infeasible. Crypto and large optimization problems remain secure.
If you think this has any real world implications you are unfortunately a mouth breather
Here's a direct link to OpenAI's PDF claiming a refutation of ETH. In particular, it's claimed that 3SAT on n variables is in about exp(n/(log n)^{1/2+o(1)}) time
github.com/openai/math/blob/…
Let’s fucking gooooooooo
hyperliquid:native
*PAYWARD, KRAKEN PARENT, PLANS TO BE FIRST CFTC-REGULATED HIP-3* DEPLOYER; WILL USE HYPERLIQUID FOR US CLIENT PERPETUAL FUTURES: HYPERLIQUID
$HYPE
Me looking at the 50x end of the leverage slider on @HyperliquidX with 39 USDC of available liquidity left
Who’s cutting onions in here
My father has never hugged me.
Not when I was born. Not at my graduation. Not when I left home.
That's normal for a Japanese father his age. Love is a full gas tank when you visit. A bag of oranges handed over without a word.
Last month, my friend from Texas came to dinner at my parents' house. When it was time to go, he did what Texans do.
He hugged my mother.
Then he turned around and hugged my father.
My father froze. Arms straight down. Like a soldier being hugged by a bear.
Three seconds. Nobody breathed.
After he left, my father sat at the table for a long time. Then he said:
"In America… do they do that with their fathers too?"
"Every time," I said.
He nodded. That was all.
Two weeks later, I went home for dinner. When I was leaving, my father stood up, walked to the door, and put his arms around me.
Badly. Like he was assembling furniture with no instructions.
I'm over forty. It was the first time.
He let go, looked at the floor, and said, "Drive safely."
My mother told me later he'd been practicing on the dog.
Now that’s how you deliver a punchline 🐕
$NBIS raised $3.5B at 6.38% initial, only 2.5% over SOFR
These G-SIBs must be soooo bad at this lending thing
Daily reminder that $CRWV implied vol is like 100% so daily expected move is 6%
Any move within that 12% band is not high information
When this chick takes a break from interviewing billionaires to talk about something in crisis
You know it's over
$CRWV
To all the geopolitical experts reading the same headlines out of Iran
The world has changed
The 3 most powerful people - Trump Xi Putin - whether you like them or not - are working together now
Problems around the world will go away
This is how history has always worked
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇳🇴🇫🇮A U.S. official said the talks President Trump’s Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held today with President Zelensky and the leaders of Norway and Finland were "very productive and constructive”
🇺🇸🇺🇦The U.S. official said Ukraine "brought forward new ideas and proposals, which were discussed in detail” and claimed the parties made "meaningful progress in aligning on a coordinated approach to engaging Russia and advancing the diplomatic process”
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇪🇺The U.S. official said there is now "strong alignment at the working level” between the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe on the next steps and there is "a shared commitment to finding practical solutions to end the war”
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺The discussions on Tuesday in Oslo covered the elements of a comprehensive peace framework, including long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, a post-war economic and prosperity plan, and a "broader European security architecture designed to create lasting stability”.
🇺🇸🇷🇺Witkoff will meet with President Putin tomorrow, with Jared Kushner participating virtually, the U.S. official said.
🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦The U.S. official said: "The goal is to build on the progress made with Ukraine and Europe, discuss the proposals with Russia, and create a pathway toward direct trilateral and broader multilateral negotiations”
There's been literally zero short stop-outs on this hyperliquid:native recovery above $81
We have like $10 to go in coming days, ladies and gentlemen
Knife through butter phase
Hyperliquid
This market has somehow turned $WULF, $GLXY, $DGXX all into 3x, 4x, and 8x opportunities with this uneducated selling wave
I predict $META beat - look at what $SPCX with Grok Bot!
All of this simply goes back to one simple fact which is the vast majority of people, including "financial professionals", are deeply uneducated on AI
Because they resist using the technology at its frontier
Dooming themselves to always live in the past
And miss
I've concluded that the main disconnect in the market on neoclouds, especially with high optical leverage like $CRWV, stems from a lack of understanding of DDTLs (deferred draw term loans)
A simple diagram below for our visual learners
In summary: if you haven't studied the capital structure deeply you are (1) overestimating interest payments, (2) overestimating out-year net debt, and (3) underestimating built-in optionality to defer taking on liabilities if compute conditions are not favorable.
You are also not taking into account the ability for revenue/pricing to be hiked given the crunch in compute because you didn't read the hyperscaler agreements where this call option is built-in.
Hence you are modeling not only the worst case but a case worse than the worst case and letting price action confirm your superficial understanding of the situation.
$CRWV is not my favorite expression on AI/compute ($WULF is the one) but it has the most reflexivity to the upside precisely because of how byzantine the financial structure is.
The equity will rip new assholes in the next few days and that's the short-term trade.
Good luck to all
We got one of the greatest tradfi journalists and podcast hosts fully hyperliquid:native pilled!
Hyperliquid
Blockchain aside. One thing I feel pretty strongly about is that if you're a markets person, you should probably invest a little bit of time thinking about perpetuals, and how they work. Anyway, Sub to the newsletter here. bloomberg.com/account/newsle…