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ONE WEEK TO GO: A check-in on 24 hour cross-exchange volume for gubernatorial races has TX out in front, just as it is on our Senate heatmap, too. resolvemarkets.com/election-…

and losing ME money! 😂

lots of places where the exchanges don't all align resolvemarkets.com/election-…

OHIO SENATE: Next up in our midterm analysis series is the special election for the Ohio senate seat vacated by Vice President Vance in January of 2025. Governor DeWine appointed then GOP Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted to replace Vance. This race intrigues us for several reasons, most notably because Sherrod Brown, the Democratic challenger, was a three term senator from Ohio already, making him a household name in the state. Background: In the modern political era, Ohio has been seen as a "bellwether" state, even having earned the phrase "As Ohio goes, so goes the nation" in political science circles. However, following President Trump's first term victory in 2016, Ohio has looked fairly ruby red, having voted for Trump decisively three times in a row in presidential elections. That being said, Sherrod Brown managed to do something that had seemed to be impossible in the Trump era: he won reelection as a democrat in 2018 for a third senate term, at 53.5-46.5. He was part of a trifecta of Democratic senators winning in "Trump" states that year along with Montana's Jon Tester and West Virginia's Joe Manchin. Fast forward to 2024, and Brown is up for reelection and loses in what was by all accounts a tough year for Democrats. However, Brown vastly outperforms Harris, losing to GOP's Bernie Moreno by 3.5, 46.5 to 50 where Harris lost the state by roughly 11 points. Brown's outperformance in a red wave year is the first signal to us that he has the potential to reclaim his seat in 2026 if the "blue wave" does, in fact, materialize. Brown outperformed Harris in all 88 Ohio counties, and some counties even voted for Trump and Brown, such as Lorain (West of Cleveland). What is difficult to measure is whether certain states have become more partisan in the last few cycles, Ohio included. For example, we'd be hard-pressed to imagine a Democrat - including Joe Manchin - winning a statewide office in West Virginia in 2026. Is Ohio the same? We'd argue that it's partisan shift is a bit less ossified than in these other "Trump" states, in part due to the ticket splitting Sherrod Brown experienced in 2024, even if he came up short. So, what are the polls saying? As of this writing, the @RCPolitics average of polls has Brown up by 3.1. In 2024, Brown underperformed the polls by 1.9. In 2018, while no final average was given, he also underperformed his polls by between 3 to 10 points, depending on cutoff time. This time around, just as with our first analysis on Texas, there is far more polling being conducted which does give us more confidence in the figure being reported. However, with polling errors in recent history landing on the wrong side for Brown, we need to take this into account. Trump not being on the ballot this iteration may also be a benefit to Brown. Energy: then, there is the diesel angle. Unlike our first two states in our analytics, Texas & Maine, Ohio is far more tied to agriculture, which relies heavily on diesel and fertilizer. Rising prices due to the Iran war have weighed on midwestern farmers and agricultural economies. As of this writing, a gallon of diesel fuel in Ohio costs about $6.24, almost double the final price in 2024 of $3.47 (NBC). This alone may be enough to swing it in Brown's favor. The elephant in the room: the GOP gubernatorial candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, has recently come under fire for an ad attacking his Democratic opponent that even members of his own party have distanced themselves from. There could be a backlash not only to Ramaswamy, but also to down ballot Republicans such as Husted. Data centers: This has become a hot button issue in Ohio where public sentiment has turned negative towards the buildout of data centers. Brown has been framing Husted as having been "pro data center". The @ezraklein podcast recently had a good episode on Trump voter focus groups where this has been a consistent issue that Brown is hammering Husted on. Given the heightened anxiety around this topic, if this has staying power, it could be a drag on Husted, especially given how pro data center President Trump has been. Conclusion: We think this one goes to Brown. A combination of high diesel prices, household name recognition, a populist message, poor GOP approval ratings, Trump not being on the ballot, and a GOP gubernatorial candidate that has mismanaged his campaign messaging all make for a positive environment for any Democrat running statewide in Ohio. However, this is still a Trump +11 state, so this is by far not a foregone conclusion. The past polling errors against Brown combined with the slim lead he currently holds in the polls means this is well within the margin of error. At ~70c, the price for a Brown victory also feels a bit rich here. We do not currently hold a position. We will be watching - but not chasing - a YES Brown position. As always, these views are our own and do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any contract. resolvemarkets.com/elections

Joe of potential interest to you in the final 10 days of election season is our aggregated senate election prediction market contract map w/ prices from multiple exchanges for each race (including TX). Prices now indicate 52-48 Dem control. resolvemarkets.com/election-…

Aggregate volume on midterm senate election contracts finally starting to perk up a bit here. Will be interesting to see in the final ten days what the flows look like. resolvemarkets.com/elections

@derosamiked @PredictIt

@EventualNews @LoganR2WH @gwfulce @Domahhhh @keendawg

Our @PredictIt book is growing at a rapid pace. Will post final positions on Nov 3. Not trade/investment advice.

I still refuse to believe it. Going to hurt if I'm wrong on this one. We'll see!!!

Not all prediction market exchanges are in agreement about senate prices. See the differences using our Senate map. We just scooped up shares of NO Paxton on @PredictIt at 62c while the @Kalshi price was 68c. (Not a recommendation to trade). resolvemarkets.com/election-…

TWO WEEKS TO GO: Our aggregated senate price map across three prediction market exchanges has Democrats priced to control 52 seats. resolvemarkets.com/election-…

Depositing into @PredictIt ahead of the 2026 midterms feels like coming home. Hello again, old friend. We have work to do.

MAINE SENATE: Next up in our midterm analysis series is a closer look at the Maine senate race. This is the one that intrigues us the most after the Texas senate race in large part due to its unpredictability based on past polling errors. Let's first start with some history: 2020: Joe Biden wins Maine 53-44. Meanwhile, Susan Collins wins Maine 51-42. This is a huge ticket split in the modern political era. What's more, the polling error was *massive*. The @RCPolitics average of polls had the Democrat up somewhere around +5 heading into election day, with the final result a whopping +8.6 for *Collins*. This was an insane ~13 polling error! And this wasn't the first time - Collins has a history of massively outperforming her polls even before 2020. In 2014, she outperformed the RCP average of polls by +7.8, and in 2008, another massive blue year, she outperformed her polls by +8.4. So, where does this polling error come from? For one, Maine had been polled relatively poorly in past cycles. The last poll conducted in the 2020 cycle was an Emerson college poll with 611 likely voters in the last few days of October. And, nothing against Emerson as a pollster, there just wasn't a huge sample size right at the end. So, a smaller sample size is certainly partly responsible for this. But, our hunch is that it goes further than that. Maine is just generally more of an independent state. Recall that Maine's other senator is Angus King, formally an Independent (even though he caucuses with the Democrats). Furthermore, from everyone we've talked to on the ground in Maine, Susan Collins is not generally disliked in the way many other standard establishment politicians are. She has been able to navigate multiple elections successfully in large part due to her simple message of bringing money home for her state (newyorker.com/news/the-lede/…) and by being perceived as independent enough that she can attest to bucking her own party and President Trump where it makes sense for her constituents. Knowing this, let's now turn to today. 2026: This time around, there is more polling being conducted, but still not to the same extent that, say, Texas is in our first midterm analysis series. Maine is also more of a rural state than others are, making polling harder in some areas outside of the Portland metro area. Therefore, are we to distrust the polls? Not necessarily. But, the larger the sample size, the better we feel about accuracy. As it stands today, the RCP average of polls has the Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson, up around +1.6, far underperforming the D+8 environment on the generic congressional ballot that other Democrats are experiencing. Then, there's the elephant in the room: Graham Platner. With Platner bowing out of the race, Troy Jackson filled the Democratic spot. By all accounts, this has been an underwhelming transition, with polls barely budging as a result of the switch. We consider this switch a negative for Democrats, not because Platner would have been a better candidate in a head-to-head match-up (we'll never know the counterfactual) but because consistency is an asset in elections, and the circumstances by which Platner exited were not positive for the Democratic brand in Maine. It's not all positive for Collins, though. The demographics of the state have changed with more Bostonians moving to the Southern Portland area in the last six years, high fuel prices, a trade war with Maine's northern neighbor and trade partner Canada, and a generally negative environment nationally for Republicans, and her age all being headwinds for any GOP incumbent this cycle (although at 73 years of age, she is arguably young for the Senate). With such a messy pre-general timeline, it's tough to extrapolate certain primary metrics to the general as we did with Texas partisan turnout. For Maine, the best we can do is look at the 2020 baseline and make some demographic assumptions. We do so in the attached animation based off of our election projection analysis tool & data. The animation is split into three parts: the first being the 2020 split between President & senate. The second being a simulation of 10,000 elections. The third is a closer look at the potential polling error this time akin to past cycles. Ultimately, even with a more favorable environment for Democrats than past cycles where she has been on the ballot, we lean towards this being a Collins win. If there is even *half* the polling error this time as there was in 2020, it's still Collins' to lose. Our own modelling tells us that Jackson is a favorite up until we introduce a polling error. The polling error could, of course, not materialize this cycle as it has in the past. But, we are skeptical that it will be the case this time, particularly given the consistency of a favorable Collins polling error in the last three cycles where she has been on the ballot. Therefore, we still view Collins as the favorite. A Collins YES contract makes for an interesting hedge if your book is heavy long Democrats heading into November 3. As always, this is not a recommendation to trade any specific contract. Let us know what you think! You can make your own turnout assumptions for Maine and other states by making a free account and using our election projection tool: resolvemarkets.com/election-…