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#IrishDefenceThoughts
I was recently invited onto @TheDarkStatePod where we discussed:
• The current state of @dfreserve
• #IrregularReserve concept
• Drones
• Irish societal responsibility for defence.
You can listen here:
patreon.com/posts/reserve-10…
Feedback is welcome
Robert Gilbey retweeted
⚠️ TRIPLE LOCK is NOT normal
⚠️ removing it does NOT effect neutrality
⚠️ NO other nation has it
⚠️ 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷 have veto re 🇮🇪 peacekeeping decisions
⚠️ keeping it will cause exodus in defence
⚠️ those promoting Triple Lock have NO answer to how 🇮🇪 continues peacekeeping
rte.ie/news/ireland/2026/102…
Imo, the general population views neutrality not merely as a technical military policy, but as a core reflection of 🇮🇪 values,ie national identity, independence, & sovereignty,that requires democratic consent. You don’t need a triple lock to be neutral
When the people don't agree with your opinions, then democracy is "flawed".
Replying to @stevenconlon
The electoral system in Ireland is flawed in favour of the status quo parties. In the last election only 59% of the electorate thought it was worth their while to go out an vote. No matter who people vote for they end up with the two legacy parties in power.
Party manifestos for elections are irrelevant, what the electorate end up with is a cabal in charge producing what they want to do anyway.
The 2 legacy parties would be out of business without taxpayers funding as their membership has collapsed, they have bought off the legacy media which also would be out of business without this funding, and they have now created a commission to suppress free speech and control social media. If this was the case in a non-EU country there would be calls for investigation.
Robert Gilbey retweeted
2% of GNi* for Ireland would be over €6Billion on Defence.
Austria espousing clear intent and direction.
Replying to @WietseBuwalda
2% of GDP by 2032
“our neutrality is not just something that stands in the constitution and thus on paper, but in this regard too, we must recognize that neutrality must also be defended; with all means available, financially and in terms of personnel.”
Robert Gilbey retweeted
Ireland is not now, nor has it ever been neutral.
The triple lock does not change that.
Irish Neutrality is one of the most important foreign policy positions this country has.
Don't let the FF, FG and Independent government shred it.
Sign the petition. aontu.ie/keep-the-triple-loc…
Robert Gilbey retweeted
#Defence
This is an excellent explanation
from an actual armour ( or armor) expert.
Well worth the read.
Conor's article, and the other one saying "550 vehicle fleet to be bought" seems to have started a surprising amount of utterly unjustified handwringing, as if there is some massive course correction pending for the Irish military. Before answering the question "Is this a good idea", one must first answer the question "what is the Army for?" The third question is "How to frame the size of the proposed purchase?"
First, disclaimers.
What I know: How to fight brigades and battalions.
What I don't know: What guidance the Irish DF are operating under, what assumptions they have made, and what the various machinations are going on behind the scenes. So I'm inferring with what I know to inform me.
Much though it may shock certain people to realise it, but the Irish Army has always been organised to fight a "conventional" battle. The function of the Defence Forces, oddly, is "To defend the State against armed aggression," (It says so on its website) and this is not new. To do that, it needs to be able to fight. It trains to do so.
Ireland's Army came out of WW2/The Emergency with hundreds of armoured vehicles, those who want the details can find the excellent Karl Martin book on the subject. Over time, size and numbers decreased. In 1945, Ireland had eight "PDF" brigades, in two divisions (1st (Thunderbolt), and 2nd (Spearhead) (As I now look up the dates of creation of the US 3rd Armored and 11th Armored divisions) of three brigades each and two independent brigades. The brigade structure back then is fairly familiar to folks of today, and has generally remained similar for most armies around the world: Because it tended to work. Three battalions of infantry, an artillery regiment, a cavalry squadron, supporting companies of engineers, signals, medics etc. There were also some independent units with token numbers of tanks, air defence, whatever.
Over the years, the numbers have dropped. They started with eight regular brigades. Back in my FCA days, there were three. Come 2012, down to two. But though the number of brigades has changed, the basic structure and function (form following function, after all), has remained the same for longer than my father's lifetime, let alone mine.
Ireland has a long and proud tradition of UN operations, but UN operations aren't always quiet peacekeeping. They kicked off with the Congo, which was the wake-up call that claimed neutrality does not guarantee immunity, and that both training and equipping to fight is of paramount importance, even on UN operations. Jadotville might have gone much differently had the losses the year prior not resulted in a crash arms buy with modern kit. In any case, peacekeeping as people are familiar with from recent years like UNIFIL does not require a brigade structure, with artillery batteries in support, a cavalry squadron answering PIRs, etc. A fighting force can, and as far as I know in every country does, provide peacekeeping forces out of their warfighting configuration. Warfighting forces cannot be created from peacekeeping organisations.
The purchase of hundreds of armoured vehicles does not change the DF's capabilities or character, it only changes how good it is at them. If Ireland right now has two warfighting infantry brigades, and then buys 550 armoured vehicles, what does it then have? Two warfighting infantry brigades, at least one of which is now mechanised. It doesn't change what the brigade does: It's a maneuver asset, generally designed to attack a battalion or smaller sized enemy of similar makeup, and defend against a brigade or two sized attacker. A mech brigade is more mobile and more flexible, and that mobility comes with better protection courtesy of armour, but it does the same operational job. A brigade-without-light-armor isn't expected to fight the Third Russian Shock Tank Division, and a brigade-with-light-armor also isn't going to fight the Third Russian Shock Tank Division. Other armies tend to have armored brigades for that sort of job, even really small armies like Lithuania. Fortunately, I don't think anyone really envisions a situation where that requirement would ever come up for an Irish unit in the first place.
For comparison, a US Army SBCT has about 325 Stryker vehicles, very similar to a MOWAG. Plus 600 or so JLTVs, light armor a bit like the Irish LTAVs. However, a Stryker brigade also is part of a division and has access to division support assets. It also doesn't need to add additional vehicles as training sets or attrition reserve. Ireland doesn't have a division any more, so the brigades have to be configured to be independent brigades, inherently they are a bit larger since they have to be self-sufficient. The Irish purchase would also presumably include some training set vehicles, and some spares for inevitable losses. Further, to be equivalent to a US SBCT in capability, it needs more than just wheeled vehicles. Each US squad has a Javelin missile. They're currently a battalion asset in Ireland. They come with 155mm artillery (Ok, came, they have now been moved to DivArty, but are expected to operate in support) for fires. Let alone all the other assets which a US SBCT commander can request or has, those are just two really obvious ones.
When it comes to people going "Oh, they are preparing to go fight in Europe", there are two answers. 1) Yes, of course they are. Fighting to defend Balriggan would look pretty similar to fighting to defend Jadotville (Just fewer snakes). Fighting to kick a light battalion out of Knock Airport is going to be pretty similar to fighting to kick a light battalion out of Kaunas airport. In any case, it's the Army's job to prepare to fight wherever the government decides to fight, at home or abroad. It has for the entire existence of the State, this isn't new. 2) That government decision has absolutely nothing to do with what the equipment they have is. A brigade is a brigade, a battalion is a battalion. There was nothing stopping the Costello government from dispatching one of Ireland's infantry brigades to fight in Korea. It had a UN mandate from the Security Council (To keep the Triple Lock folks happy. Even Sweden sent a field hospital to treat UN troops). It had brigades trained and organised to do it. Korea has suitable terrain for light infantry brigades to operate. Whatever reasons Ireland had in the 1950s to have brigades and to use them or not use them, they remain pretty much identical today. Europe is a bit more interlinked now, is the main difference. What happens in Finland, Estonia or Poland now has greater effect on Ireland.
For those who are saying "drones make armor irrelevant and are a waste of money", they are....ill-informed. The Navy called it the jeune ecole. There's a really long answer to this entirely different topic (and see my video "no, the tank is not dead", but the short one is "Presume the folks around the world in military procurement know what they are doing and look what they are doing." Drones are a fact of modern military life, and modern forces should be both able to use and counter them. Unfortunately, that merely adds complexity to the overall problem, yet another issue for folks to worry about, to add to every other military technology which keeps piling on and adding complexity ever since we moved on from stabbing our enemies. We still can do that, bayonets on rifles are a thing, but there's more on top of it. Unfortunately, answers to increasingly complicated problem sets are rarely simple or cheap.
For those who are saying "Ireland needs airplanes and ships", they are not wrong. Related to the above, the correct answer is neither simple nor cheap. In terms of military capability, it's not an either/or decision. One needs an Army capable of doing its job well as well as an air corps/force capable of doing its job well, as well as a Naval Service/Navy capable of doing its job well. Half-assing anything can lead to rather fatal consequences. Though I would note that the Government has not committed to LOA 3, which is the one which has fighters, capable warships, etc, so buying for the Army but not the other branches is consistent with stated government policy.
Which brings us to that third question I mentioned: How to frame the size of the proposal. There is a prevalent view that "because the move is from 80 to 550 vehicles, there is a change in nature of the force".
There are two assumptions in that: First, that 80 was the correct size for the DF to do everything it was expected to do for the three brigades it had back in 2000. It's a relatively token force, 45 of them are APCs: Not even enough to lift a full battalion. Did someone in the DF do an operational analysis and say "80 is the correct number of armoured vehicles we need to do all our jobs", or did the DF go "We need this many vehicles" only to be met by Finance going "you must be having a laugh, mate, we'll fund you for this many". I have no data, but I have my suspicions.
The second assumption is that even is 80 was the correct vehicle number three decades ago, it is still the correct vehicle number today. As the drone advocates have noted, the battlefield has somewhat changed. It might have been well enough getting around in MAN trucks, Ford Transit vans and commandeered CIE buses back in the day, but when paramilitaries have access to drones, or when artillery ranges further on conventional battlefields (also observed by drones, most likely), or whatever, the tactical need has also changed. I can think of few instances where anyone has ever said "I wish we had fewer armoured vehicles" when trying to maneuver on a battlefield. Or in Lebanon. Or in Bosnia. Or Liberia (Note how the Swedes brought CV90s?)
So, to summarise.
If absolutely nothing changes in Ireland's security planning or foreign policy goals, a large armored vehicle purchase to equip a warfighting brigade is entirely consistent with those long-standing policies. It allows the DF to better achieve what it is already tasked to do and may be tasked to do in the future.
If it is believed that Ireland should not have a conventional warfighting capability, then that will be a change, someone needs to tell the Defence Forces to stop planning to fight, and to instead become a peace-keeping force. And then hope that the Triple Lock goes away because otherwise there will be no peace-keeping opportunities for them to do it.
Robert Gilbey retweeted
Replying to @williamhboney1
You’ve been howling at the moon over neutrality for years and none of your scare mongering tactics have ever come true.
EU President want's Irish parents to offer up their first born for sacrifice #AprilFools (Not really)
Juncker's EU Army.
Neutral does mean might.
A neutral country is a mighty country, because it needs to defend that neutrality.
This is why neutral countries have arms industries, conscription, fighter jets, intelligence services, & all the things needed to hold its own.
Ireland is not a neutral.
Robert Gilbey retweeted
Russia is preparing for war in Europe, and they continue to be issued visas.
Spanish police have arrested a former Russian soldier after discovering an illegal weapons operation in Catalonia, near the French border.
Investigators uncovered a concealed workshop inside a rented warehouse in Figueres, approximately 25 kilometers from France. The facility contained 644 firearms, thousands of rounds of ammunition, silencers and weapons components.
The seized arsenal is estimated to be worth €5 million.
Anthropic valuation: $1.5 trillion
Walmart valuation: $960 Billion
Anthropic revenue: $16.3 billion
Walmart revenue: $365 billion
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec
Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
Robert Gilbey retweeted
Replying to @BobFlavin
Funnily enough, Irish DF have lost far more soldiers in peacekeeping missions than on peace enforcement missions. But don’t let the facts bother you too much Bob
Robert Gilbey retweeted
Ireland is not neutral - it’s non aligned.
Ending the triple lock won’t end that. 🤷🏻♂️
Irish Neutrality is one of the most important foreign policy positions this country has.
Don't let the FF, FG and Independent government shred it.
Sign the petition. aontu.ie/keep-the-triple-loc…
Robert Gilbey retweeted
SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
The Math Proves the Reality that Musk doesn't want you to see.
On Oct 13-14, SpaceX restricted Starshield/Starlink during a 39-missile Russian attack, cutting Ukrainian drone intercepts by 23% and stranding U.S. personnel in Kyiv. Forty-eight hours later (Oct 15), SpaceX blocked U.S.-licensed NRO, Space Force, and NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 in orbit so Russia's COSMOS 2612 weapon could intercept it (99.89%-99.98% posterior)
Our Model Demonstrates that the Russian intercept of the US/NATO ICEYE X-36 satellite (contemporaneous with the throttling of Starlink) would not have been possible, and almost certainly not been attempted, without SpaceX resources. At a material opportunity cost, Russia sprinted its COSMOS satellite to intercept ICEYE X36. Based on a previous attempt in June during which X36 maneuvered to evade COSMOS, Russia knew that this would be successful only if X36 could not maneuver. On October 15, SpaceX fixed X36 in place by issuing a collision alert for a sub-kilometer approach with its Starlink 35856 when SpaceX's own data shows that the actual distance was 4.8-5.0x as great. SpaceX issued no warning to COSMOS despite the fact that its sprint was far more threatening than the stable X36 orbit. SpaceX did not maneuver its Starlink 35856 satellite to clear the supposed collision risk. How, absent coordination with SpaceX, could Russia have known that SpaceX would take actions that (a) misrepresented the danger posed by X36, and (b) resulted in the fixing of X36 thereby enabling COSMOS's successful intercept? Thus, SpaceX was directly involved in simultaneously compromising Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities. The conjunction of these two events makes innocent explanations untenable.
The Pentagon Capture & Iran Round Two Trap: Pentagon CTO Emil Michael who cashed out $7M–$35M from Musk’s inner-circle SpaceX vehicles (M8/Gigafund 0.1 and M6/Valor M33 II) and KQ Partners / xAI (selling xAIfor $5M–$25M three days before taking over CDAO/OSCand 21 days before SpaceX bought xAI, while keeping M8, M6, M9, M10 & Nomadic open) and Pete Hegseth purged rival Anthropic in two hours, surrendered combat command over US drones used to attack Iran to Starlink’s "Terms of Service," and on October 2 named Musk Co-Director of Project Meridian to design the Pentagon's "Future of Warfighting" just as America enters Iran Round Twowith depleted Patriot/THAAD magazines and Russia feeding U.S. warship/aircraft locations to Tehran.
SpaceX’s actions in Ukraine raise serious questions about its alignment with US security interests and its reliability as a cornerstone of US defense. These questions are particularly troubling given the effectively irreplaceable position SpaceX has been granted by the Hegseth/Emil Michael Pentagon.
$SPCX $TSLA
Our full quantitative analysis below w/ @streetwiseprof
Robert Gilbey retweeted
Because Tom hasn't been in the army in over a quarter of a century, and had limited experience when he did serve there, and has isolated himself from all his former colleagues, who might have relevant info to share with him. Which would be the opposite of @BerryCathal
If there were a few of these dotted around our country, would we even know?
The Kongsberg company has presented a containerized launch system for the NSM cruise missiles.
The system, called the NSM Mission Module, is based on a 20-foot maritime container and can hold 4 NSM missiles, with a range of approximately 300 km and a payload of 120 kg.
The use of a container allows for the creation of a discreet launch system, and it can be used in a stationary configuration, on a truck, or on a maritime platform.
Robert Gilbey retweeted
I believe this will be considered one of the most important videos in US history from this time.
Robert Gilbey retweeted
Footage of multiple Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles slamming into Russia’s Proton military electronics plant in Orel this weekend.
The strike heavily damaged a chip fab at the factory.
Robert Gilbey retweeted
Quick, name a single country in the world v that hamstings its sovereignity with a Triple Lock other than Ireland.































