AGA | “as the legislative history directly confirms, Congress did not want sports betting to be conducted on derivatives markets.” - Kalshi
Joined March 2009
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They don’t set betting lines. They just… make the market. 🙃 💰
“Like every other trader” !? They are a financial giant. Their founder is worth $90 Billion!
There is nothing “peer-to-peer” about a bartender in Poughkeepsie unknowingly betting against a Wall St behemoth
Rob Lockwood retweeted
@mansourtarek_ and @kalshi “market makers” looking for the person actually “taking” the bets.
.@patrickbetdavid this guy just looked you dead in the eyes and lied to both you and your audience.
Kalshi makes money from fees on losing and winning bets.
ingame.com/kalshi-parlay-tak…
🚨Last week on Patrick Bet-David’s podcast, Kalshi's CEO said the "beauty of Kalshi" is that "I don't make money off the people that are like losing money and getting addicted."
Really?
Kalshi has made an estimated $2+ BILLION in fees this year.
Kalshi's own filing says Kalshi Trading LLC was "established as a profit-making enterprise" that trades on its own exchange.
AGA Bill Miller to @contessabrewer:
The prediction markets are facing a tsunami of criminal charges, major civil investigations and significant defeats in court. In the aftermath of the election, we expect the bipartisan scrutiny to further intensify.
cnbc.com/2026/11/06/midterm-…
Rob Lockwood retweeted
This stat of prediction markets calling races near perfectly is made up and needs a community note. The reality is that polls outperformed sports gambling (err “prediction markets”) platforms as @NateSilver538 details.
natesilver.net/p/models-led-…
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.
I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.”
Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites.
Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%.
The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels.
Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people.
Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families.
Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full.
And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world.
For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened.
Prediction markets change that.
You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it.
That changes who holds power over information.
Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view.
Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it.
And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from.
Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do.
Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.
Rob Lockwood retweeted
Idk if all this matters in the grand scheme of things but Kalshi getting blowback from the modelers and analysts is definitely entertaining
I just posted this analysis of the @50plus1news model vs the prediction markets. Not only is @NateSilver538 correct and @mansourtarek_ wrong about the performance of the models vs markets over the cycle, the models were actually more accurate on Elec Day 2 blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/fif…
Rob Lockwood retweeted
"Brady has not lost a regular season home start since November the 12th 2006" - This drive is from 2011
Rob Lockwood retweeted
Kalshi is advertising that you should bet on sports to pay your restaurant bill.
Rob Lockwood retweeted
Italian chef fired for refusing to put pineapple on pizza bbc.in/4egT8uf
Rob Lockwood retweeted
47 state attorneys general are on the record: prediction markets are offering sports betting that belongs under state and tribal regulation - not federally through the CFTC.
@Kalshi said it themselves: Congress did not want sports betting to be conducted on derivatives markets.
Rob Lockwood retweeted
Kalshi’s CEO was asked if Kalshi is an investment or speculation.
His reply: “Trading in prediction markets is not an investment. It's a trade.”
Let’s look back at what he said in 2025: “I think within the next year and a half, I would say most mainstream financial brokerages – like where you have your 401(k)s – will have access to Kalshi's products, our prediction markets, in-app,”
I don’t think people are using their 401ks for speculation.
Bingo. They are highly reactive.
FWIW… on Election Day, NBC’s @SteveKornacki told me prediction markets had “very little” influence on him because “they're very reactive and very responsive to polling. So what you're really just getting is a slightly different metric that is actually reflecting the same thing that the polls are reflecting.”
puck.news/podcasts/the-grill…
Rob Lockwood retweeted
He won’t mind losing sports betting.
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.
I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.”
Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites.
Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%.
The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels.
Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people.
Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families.
Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full.
And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world.
For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened.
Prediction markets change that.
You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it.
That changes who holds power over information.
Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view.
Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it.
And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from.
Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do.
Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.
Narrator: Day after the election…
@AGTimGriffin Sues Prediction Market Kalshi for Providing Illegal Gambling Platform in Arkansas
arkansasag.gov/news-release/…
"PREDICTION MARKETS WIN BIG ON ELECTION NIGHT" - @semafor: semafor.com/article/11/04/20…
Rob Lockwood retweeted
.@AGTimGriffin press release:
‘Arkansas law is concerned with substance, not semantics’
arkansasag.gov/news-release/…
BIG from Arkansas AG Tim Griffin against Kalshi.
Notes Kalshi gives high schoolers a backdoor to sports gamble and that Kalshi makes money from those bets.
Today I filed a lawsuit against @Kalshi for violating the Arkansas Deceptive Trade Practices Act by operating an unregulated gambling platform.
Kalshi has built a global business that it calls a prediction market, allowing consumers to wager money on the outcome of just about anything. You can wager on the outcome of elections, reality competition shows, football games, and much more. It doesn’t take a genius to understand that wagering money on whether the Razorbacks win or lose is gambling. And gambling on an unregulated platform is squarely prohibited by Arkansas law.
Arkansas law is concerned with substance, not semantics, and in Arkansas, gambling is regulated to protect consumers. Instead of obtaining the licenses, submitting to the oversight, complying with the restrictions, and paying the taxes required of lawful gambling operators in Arkansas, Kalshi opened its platforms to Arkansas consumers, including individuals as young as 18 years old, encouraged them to wager real money on sporting and entertainment events, and profited from those wagers. tinyurl.com/4ndz35yz #arnews
Rob Lockwood retweeted
Today I filed a lawsuit against @Kalshi for violating the Arkansas Deceptive Trade Practices Act by operating an unregulated gambling platform.
Kalshi has built a global business that it calls a prediction market, allowing consumers to wager money on the outcome of just about anything. You can wager on the outcome of elections, reality competition shows, football games, and much more. It doesn’t take a genius to understand that wagering money on whether the Razorbacks win or lose is gambling. And gambling on an unregulated platform is squarely prohibited by Arkansas law.
Arkansas law is concerned with substance, not semantics, and in Arkansas, gambling is regulated to protect consumers. Instead of obtaining the licenses, submitting to the oversight, complying with the restrictions, and paying the taxes required of lawful gambling operators in Arkansas, Kalshi opened its platforms to Arkansas consumers, including individuals as young as 18 years old, encouraged them to wager real money on sporting and entertainment events, and profited from those wagers. tinyurl.com/4ndz35yz #arnews
Lol at this AI-generated pomposity
You run an illegal sports gambling operation. Election bets = microscopic Kalshi volume
Users gamble based on public polling models, real time election data & observations… not some Kalshi manifested divine oracle-ing. Unless they insiders
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.
I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.”
Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites.
Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%.
The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels.
Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people.
Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families.
Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full.
And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world.
For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened.
Prediction markets change that.
You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it.
That changes who holds power over information.
Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view.
Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it.
And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from.
Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do.
Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.
