Research @AmericanGaming.
Washington, D.C.
Joined March 2021
- Tweets252
- Following193
- Followers220
- Likes461
David Forman retweeted
AGA Bill Miller to @contessabrewer:
The prediction markets are facing a tsunami of criminal charges, major civil investigations and significant defeats in court. In the aftermath of the election, we expect the bipartisan scrutiny to further intensify.
cnbc.com/2026/11/06/midterm-…
David Forman retweeted
👀from @DylanByers
"Election markets account for a de minimis portion of the trading activity on Kalshi...
...Kalshi’s news sponsorships can seem less like marketing, and more like drafting on the credibility of institutions whose very business is telling people who they can trust."
Kalshi desperately wants to be seen—and taxed—not as a digital sports book, but as a journalistic barometer of public sentiment. But for all their partnership deals, more than 80 percent of their bets are on… sports markets.
@DylanByers reports: puck.news/media/2026/11/what…
I think the media got this one right, @benwfreeman1
This is why the media is hard to trust. Put “prediction markets” in the headline and it implies the growth is stagnating across major prediction market platforms, when in fact on Kalshi, election trading is growing. We gave all of this data to the reporter:
All of 2024 elections volume: $1.3B
All of 2026 elections volume so far: $1.7B
Oct ‘24 elections volume: $256m
Oct ‘26 elections volume: $430m
Last week leading up to 2024 Presidential Election: $217m
Last week leading up to 2026 Midterms: $220m
STAGNATING 🤷
David Forman retweeted
Criminal charges make sense
Given that Kalshi Founder @mansourtarek_ literally said used to say that offering Sports Betting on Kalshi would be “ILLEGAL”
(Now it’s 85% of his business.)
BREAKING: Utah has filed felony and misdemeanor criminal charges against prediction-market platform Kalshi and two of its top executives, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. abc4.com/news/local-news/uta…
David Forman retweeted
🌟Remember to apply for our 2027 Applied Research Experience Internship! This internship offers graduate students the opportunity to propose and lead funded research on the U.S. gaming industry.
Learn more and apply ➡️ bit.ly/4pP7J3l
New research from @RutgersU shows that prediction market bettors age 13-27 on @Kalshi and other platforms are "high-risk problem gamblers" at "a rate nearly four times as high as gambling on other activities." bit.ly/4yLT78W
David Forman retweeted
Kalshi allows high schoolers to circumvent state laws and sports gamble.
"Limits" announced after the AGA updated the Teen-Twenty Tracker today to nearly $8.9 BILLION YTD.
Kalshi "solution" to scrutiny / bad press is to "limit" high school kids to $30,000/yr worth of bets.
Great news, teenagers can now “only” lose $30,000 a year on @Kalshi
Are these small businesses getting ripped off by sharp "market makers" to give @Kalshi good PR?
If prediction market price discovery works, bettors saw the Dodgers' loss coming and priced it in = worse odds for the bars.
The more efficient "hedge" was at a sportsbook.
Thank you for having me @CBSLosAngeles to speak about prediction market hedging!
Many speculate (or "bet", as you call it) on prediction markets, just like they do on any derivatives market. But the exchange structure harnesses that speculation for price discovery and enables risk management for individuals and businesses, big or small.
Over time, prediction markets will let people manage exposure to most things outside of our control. We're in the early innings of that. Incredibly excited to be part of building that future.
David Forman retweeted
👀 🚨
Utah @AGDerekBrown says Kalshi is the “manager of a back-alley gambling den”
His filing further confirms Kalshi is full of baloney when they say they act differently than legal sportsbooks
sltrib.com/news/2026/10/20/u…
David Forman retweeted
It’s peak Election season
Yet elections account for roughly 0.15% of Kalshi’s volume below.
ZERO point one five
They are simply a backdoor sports book evading state laws.
47 sitting Attorneys General on record saying as much
David Forman retweeted
Kalshi lies about everything.
@mansourtarek_ tells @sruhle she has the wrong “frame” when she asks if they are “betting on everything.”
“Trade On Anything” is the tagline on KALSHI sign up page right now!
+ pre-makeover Tarek advocating this exact “frame”
David Forman retweeted
Charles Schwab CEO on Squawk Box talking about actual investing vs. sports gambling
David Forman retweeted
“It’s fitting that as Halloween 🎃 approaches, Kalshi seems spooked 👻 by the idea of the Supreme Court taking up the case next year.”
Read @Eleanor_Mueller on Kalshi trying to slow walk SCOTUS hearing against the states
semafor.com/article/10/16/20…
Interesting data from @kalshi on the <1% of their business that is elections!
Is there a similar breakdown of sports betting volume by state, seems like it must be available?
David Forman retweeted
New Reuters poll is brutal for prediction markets:
75/8 say prediction sites are gambling
60/13 oppose election markets
43/29 oppose sports markets
65/8 oppose US military markets
63/9 oppose markets on US gov. policy decisions
Broad opposition across party lines
What is the person that made this bet hedging against?
The reason people have to keep saying this is “not gambling” is that no one believes them.
David Forman retweeted
wow --> Marc Lefkowitz, who has been involved National Council on Problem Gambling and its affiliates since the 1980s, says the NCPG taking $2m from Kalshi is like a "national council on teenage sex abuse taking money from Jeffrey Epstein."
If you were one of these 16K, spinning an online slot every 15 seconds, at $1 a spin with a 3% hold: you could expect to play for about 11 hours and lose $81 dollars over the course of a month.
The same entertainment/time value as you get from a $15 movie ticket.
FIGURES: A West Virginia researcher crunching state betting numbers finds 43M bets placed by just ~16K bettors. And when does demand spike for slots? Every second, third and fourth Wednesday — Social Security payday. @MyBuckhannon mybuckhannon.com/high-roller…
